French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread (user search)
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  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 93644 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: April 29, 2007, 01:18:11 PM »

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.




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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2007, 08:21:20 PM »

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.
Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.

Well then, I predict Sarkozy 51.4, to ensure that he won't get the closest prediction. Wink

Lewis is more likey to be on the mark.

My prediction was just about the best Royal can do.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2007, 08:22:38 PM »

Haven't seen preductions from Dave or Phil.  They both did very well in the first round.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2007, 09:13:13 AM »

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.

A couple of questions for you as you appear to be particularly knowledgeable about French politicis:

1). Do you anticipate that the turnout will be significantly down in the final from the first round?

2.) Does Royal have the problem of, as the Brits would put it, "falling between two stools" by trying to round up the votes of the lefties and simultaneously appealing to the Bayrou voters?
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2007, 09:38:18 PM »

Changing prediction:

Sarkozy 54
Royal     46
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2007, 09:04:29 PM »

Prediction (and I am bad at French elections, as you've discovered)

Sarkozy 53.4
Royal 46.6

After today's Royal outburst, I'm pushing Sarkozy up a point to 54.4 and I personally think he could get over 55.  It's always easy to sense when a candidate is definitely going to lose, and this is that day.

She had an outburst today, too? You've got to be kidding me. I love it.

Are you talking about her threat of having her supporters riot if she is not elected?
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2007, 10:10:13 AM »

My prediction

Sarkozy - 54%
Royal - 46%

Interesting.

We both agree exactly.

In the first round, you, Dave, and I were tied as the three most accurate predictors.

Haven't seen Dave with a prediction in the final yet.

Should be interesting.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2007, 10:27:07 AM »

Question to Umengus:

Will Belgian and Swiss TV stations again publish exit polls in advance, shortly after 6pm ?

yes. Exit polls (bad 2 weeks ago) and first estimations (very good 2 weeks ago)

Question for you.

Is there a significant variation in age grouping by the parties?

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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2007, 10:32:48 PM »

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.

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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2007, 12:03:21 AM »

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

Of course.  After all, Paris is in Texas.

And I thought it was in Illinois.

http://www.ci.paris.il.us/
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2007, 01:45:54 AM »

Polls right now aren't worth much, before the real campaign has even begun, before Sarkozy is even President...

I suspect it will largely depend on how the socialist respond to rioting.

If they blame the rioting on Sarkozy and apologize for the rioting scum, they will pay dearly at the polls.
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2007, 07:45:39 PM »

Based on final predictions and unofficial results

Tobias Beecher was first.

Sam Spade was second.

Phil and I shared third place.

Gustaf  and Lewis shared fourth.

Gabu was fifth.

Sarkozy was sixth.

Tender Branson was seventh.

Bacon King was eighth.

Couldn't find predictions for Umengus or Dave.

Everyone correctly predicted the winner, and most predictions were acceptably close to actual results.



I think that my prediction was 53,4%

To be honest, the prediction which was important was for the 1 turn.

Sorry that I missed it.

A very accurate prediction.
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