French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

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http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-906398@51-906165,0.html

According to Le Monde, Sarkozy plans to appoint a new prime minister on May 19 or 20 to prepare for the legislatives in June. Who would be the most likely candidate, François Fillon?

I think that the UMP is most likely to have a majority in June, but what if they don't? Is it completely unimaginable to see the UMP fall short of 50%, with the rest divided among the UDF and the PS? In that case, what would happen? Would the UMP and the UDF form a coalition (all of the UDF deputies supported Sarkozy during the second round), or would there be a deadlock between the UMP and the PS? If there is a deadlock, would it be possible for Bayrou to emerge as a compromise candidate?

With France moving closer to a three-party system, I think the next few elections will be very interesting...

[PGSable]

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

Right, Bayrou is creating a Mouvement Démocrate, but when? Does he have the time to establish a new party before June 10? I figured that he would stick to the UDF for now and create the MD during the months after the legislatives.

Either way, whether it runs under the banner of the UDF or the MD, I feel that the center might deny the UMP a majority in June (although the legislatives usually mirror the presidential results), in which case it would effectively decide who gets to form the government.