French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread (user search)
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  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread  (Read 93631 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« on: April 27, 2007, 05:37:31 AM »

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=5460865
(For some reason this article doesn't consider Besancenot and Laguiller communists).
Because they aren't? (capital C Communists that is?)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2007, 06:17:01 AM »

As a random point of interest, in 2002 about 250,000 more people voted for the Commies in the legislative elections than voted for Hue a few months earlier.
Lots of Communist MPs have a strong personal vote I'd reckon. Hue didn't have any crossover appeal. (Nor does Buffet o/c.)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2007, 02:20:08 PM »

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.
Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2007, 10:24:15 AM »

Breaking News...

Le Pen calls on his voters to stay home in second round.

If that has any impact, Sarkozy may well be toast.
It probably doesn't have much impact though...
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2007, 10:53:34 AM »

Link? That may be big news. Most of the ones who would ignore Le Pen probably voted for Sarkozy in the first round anyway (the ones who voted Le Pen in 2002 and Sarkozy in 2007).
It'd be big news only if it was unexpected to Le Pen voters - and I'm not so sure of that. It's completely in character.

Here's a link - not my original source of the news o/c (which was in German)
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2007, 10:58:53 AM »

For the German speaking members here (= Lewis):

ARTE will live stream the debate on its website tomorrow at 9pm with German simultaneous translation Smiley Smiley Smiley
Thanks, I speak French well enough. I'd much prefer for them to simply air it live on tv.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2007, 06:43:17 AM »

extreme left voters:

Royal 64% (-2)
Sarkozy: 21% (+8)
abstention: 15% (-6)
Ouch. What's happening here?
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2007, 05:56:28 AM »
« Edited: May 06, 2007, 06:27:50 AM by The globe is my pony »

That high? No 55 for Sarkozy then.

EDIT: Although I just read that turnout was up 5 points in Guadeloupe and 3 in Guyane, but marginally down on the first round in Martinique, which voted for Royal. So maybe it doesn't mean what I think it means, after all.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2007, 03:45:38 AM »

Even IRV would have almost certainly eliminated him, but he WAS also beyond reasonable doubt the Condorcet winner.
Corrected.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2007, 09:50:11 AM »


The very fact that they believe that Bayrou stole the election from her is clearly retarded. Going to the point of saying 53-47 was close is retarded. I forgot the rest.
53-47 is close.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2007, 10:30:32 AM »

6-point victory in France is quite considerable

(Barely) wider than 95, actually, so yeah, not that close either. Wider than 74 and 81, as well, but narrower than 65, 69, 88, or of course 02. Discounting 02 where the result was never in doubt, that makes Sarkozy's the median percentage for a French presidential election winner. Smiley

Oh, btw. Check this out:


Not that similar to the current map. I guess Chirac did much better in the outre-mers.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2007, 10:42:28 AM »

Couple a things to note about the results:

Turnout was up 0.2 points from the first round. However, it was massively up in the Outre-Mers, and also up in Corse, so I think it actually slightly declined in Metropolitan France. I sure as hell don't see a pattern to where in France it was slightly down and where it was slightly up, although there were few mainland French départements where it varied by more than one point.

Despite Sarkozy slightly widening the gap on Royal (5.3 points in round one, 6.0 in round two), all the départements to switch switched to Royal. This is because Sarkozy piled on massively in his southeastern strongholds. Check the geriatric resorts of the eastern Var, for example - Saint Tropez, Saint Raphael, Fréjus etc (the French Bournemouths, as it were Tongue ) - Sarkozy cracked 70 throughout that area. And in that most uber-posh of Paris' posh arrondissements (XVIth... I think...) he actually (barely) cracked 80.

On a simplified assumption that all of Le Pen's, de Villiers', and Nihous' voters went for Sarko, and all the leftist voters went for Royal, she took about 57% of Bayrou's vote. I think I'll do some calculations on how this figure varies regionally...

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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2007, 11:23:50 AM »

No, Red = Royal. Wink
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2007, 03:56:42 AM »

And if DSK, Fabius, and company don't stop destroying themselves, they'll pay dearly at the polls.

Could the MD (if some of their candidates reach the second round) split the centre-left vote, seeing how much Bayrou is moving to the left. Will a MD candidate be able to win in the second round, i've heard people say that no they won't be able to.
Yes, they will. A number of them will be reelected on personal votes.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2007, 03:58:55 AM »

There are 19 Parises in the US, including two in Wisconsin. There's also a West Paris and a South Paris, both in Maine (which also has a Paris).
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2007, 04:08:09 AM »

On a simplified assumption that all of Le Pen's, de Villiers', and Nihous' voters went for Sarko, and all the leftist voters went for Royal, she took about 57% of Bayrou's vote. I think I'll do some calculations on how this figure varies regionally...

On average, and with numerous exceptions, Sarkozy took a larger share of Bayrou's votes in areas where he was also strong in the first round.

It's fairly normally distributed - every percentage from 40 to 47 for Sarkozy occurs at least 5 times, every percentage from 31 to 52 occurs at least once. Add Var at 54 to that, and that leaves the following remarkable outliers:

High share of Bayrou's vote to Sarkozy:
58 Alpes-Maritimes, Haute-Savoie (poshest of southeastern départements. Not a coincidence.)
60 Bas-Rhin, Polynésie
61 Haut-Rhin
71 Nouvelle Calédonie

Low share:
23 Saint Pierre et Miquelon (turnout up by more than 10 points)
21 Aisne
20 Somme
16 Mayotte (turnout below 50% on both rounds)
14 Pas de Calais

Now just marvel at this three département cluster of Aisne, Somme and Pas de Calais. This is an area where Sarkozy did slightly subpar in both rounds (although he won two of them), Royal did slightly subpar in the first round, Bayrou did very badly, Le Pen did very well, and the extreme left did very well. And also where Sarkozy did noticeably better than Chirac in 95.

I have a feeling that it's not Bayrou's voters at all that were more leftist here than elsewhere, but Le Pen's voters.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2007, 06:20:45 AM »

I can't find the second round by circonscription, but here's the first, compared to the 2002 legislative election (2nd round except where none held)

Of circonscriptions won by candidates described as UMP, Sarkozy won 315 and Royal won 36.
PS, Royal won 99, Sarkozy won 40, and Bayrou 2.
UDF, Sarkozy won 24, Royal 5 and Bayrou 2.
PCF, Royal won 17 and Sarkozy 4. Royal also won the circonscription held by a member of the Communist Party of La Réunion (PCR).
PRG, Sarkozy won 5 and Royal 2. Sarkozy also won Taubira's seat - she was described on the ballot as the Walwari candidate, but had run for the PRG in the presidential election.
Greens, Royal won all three.
Martinique regional parties (MIM and BPM), Royal won both.
diverse other party labels identifiable as right-wing (DL, RPF, MPF, "UMP-UDF-RPF"), Sarkozy won all 7.
diverse party labels that I can't make heads or tails off (NC, SE, CSD), Sarkozy won all 5.
"diverse right", Sarkozy won three and Royal two.
"diverse left", Sarkozy won both.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2007, 07:51:05 AM »


It has never crossed your mind that big city people tend to be rude in every country and that Parisian behaviour reflects mainly that? (i.e. Peking, New York, Berlin, Stockholm are all in their respective countries known for the same thing)

I understand that but I think that the French, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the French outside of Paris.

I understand that but I think that the Americans, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Americans outside New York.

I understand that but I think that the Italians, overall, have quite an attitude. Like I said, I have dealt with the Italians outside Rome.

And you know what, Al? I know you think you are going to catch me being hypocritical but I honestly don't care if you really feel that way. You know as well as I do that the French have a very nasty disposition towards Americans.

You keep going after me over this because first you thought you'd get me by saying my problem was just with Parisians. When I complain about the French that can be from any other region of France, you mock me and try to use my words against me. Now I can't dislike the French unless they are from the capital city so you can simply blame it on where they are specifically from?

Think what you want about Americans and Italians. If they rub you the wrong way after your encounters with them, more power to you to say that they bother you.

And please stop this holier than thou business with this subject. I love how everyone jumps at the opportunity to say that I am that way yet refuse to admit when they act is such a way. You have your own personal prejudices, Al, and so does everyone that gave me a hard time on this subject. I'm not saying that these prejudices are a good thing but they are reality. When you have used stereotypes against Italians in the past in commentary about Italian politics, I didn't really care. Please act the same when dealing with me and my opinions of the French.

Maybe the French have a nasty disposition against Americans because they hate them. They probably have good reason to do it since they met that nasty cab driver in New York that one time.
Main problem with the argument is of course that the French have nothing of the kind.

*Some* French have a *slightly* nasty disposition to arrogant people who believe that everybody understands or at least should be treated as if he understood English though.
Not that I can blame'em.
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