French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread
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  French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #175 on: May 07, 2007, 10:30:32 AM »

6-point victory in France is quite considerable

(Barely) wider than 95, actually, so yeah, not that close either. Wider than 74 and 81, as well, but narrower than 65, 69, 88, or of course 02. Discounting 02 where the result was never in doubt, that makes Sarkozy's the median percentage for a French presidential election winner. Smiley

Oh, btw. Check this out:


Not that similar to the current map. I guess Chirac did much better in the outre-mers.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #176 on: May 07, 2007, 10:42:28 AM »

Couple a things to note about the results:

Turnout was up 0.2 points from the first round. However, it was massively up in the Outre-Mers, and also up in Corse, so I think it actually slightly declined in Metropolitan France. I sure as hell don't see a pattern to where in France it was slightly down and where it was slightly up, although there were few mainland French départements where it varied by more than one point.

Despite Sarkozy slightly widening the gap on Royal (5.3 points in round one, 6.0 in round two), all the départements to switch switched to Royal. This is because Sarkozy piled on massively in his southeastern strongholds. Check the geriatric resorts of the eastern Var, for example - Saint Tropez, Saint Raphael, Fréjus etc (the French Bournemouths, as it were Tongue ) - Sarkozy cracked 70 throughout that area. And in that most uber-posh of Paris' posh arrondissements (XVIth... I think...) he actually (barely) cracked 80.

On a simplified assumption that all of Le Pen's, de Villiers', and Nihous' voters went for Sarko, and all the leftist voters went for Royal, she took about 57% of Bayrou's vote. I think I'll do some calculations on how this figure varies regionally...

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #177 on: May 07, 2007, 11:15:00 AM »


I'm giving much consideration to vacationing in Brittany, the Massif-Central or the southwest soon

Dave
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« Reply #178 on: May 07, 2007, 11:19:32 AM »

Red = Royale, correct?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #179 on: May 07, 2007, 11:23:50 AM »

No, Red = Royal. Wink
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #180 on: May 07, 2007, 12:03:04 PM »

I knew that was coming. The answer is still no. I guess I can applaud them for some of their political positions but I just have an overall extreme distaste for the French. Their arrogance and rather snobby and rude behavior makes me physically ill but that's not the point here. They did a good job yesterday.

Have you actually known any, personally?

Thankfully, no.  Tongue

Listen, you're not going to get me to change my mind on this. Call me stubborn, call me a prick...whatever. I don't like the French. It really isn't worth your time though I have noticed that recently you've been taking jabs at me (for whatever reason).

Now if I was to come across a French person that was kind to me and I liked the person then I'd be just as kind in return. When I meet someone, I try my hardest to treat them as an individual. I wouldn't insist on disliking someone who happened to be French even if I actually liked them.
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ThePrezMex
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« Reply #181 on: May 07, 2007, 12:52:11 PM »

This is pretty interesting, I like how they have all the detail of French voting abroad.
That's the page for the Houston Consulate, showing the results in Dallas, Houston and Austin. But there you can download the PDF files for the entire USA results and the entire world, country by country.

http://www.consulfrance-houston.org/article.php3?id_article=836

It is interesting to see how the vote also resembled the U.S. voting patterns: Sarkozy did better in Texas and Florida and worse in San Francisco and Boston.
Sarkozy won in Mexico also Cheesy  and got 90% of the votes in Israel!
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #182 on: May 07, 2007, 12:54:19 PM »

Listen, you're not going to get me to change my mind on this. Call me stubborn, call me a prick...whatever. I don't like the French. It really isn't worth your time though I have noticed that recently you've been taking jabs at me (for whatever reason).

I agree it isn't worth my time.  I didn't set out to take jabs at you, either, but you've made more irrational posts lately than anyone here on the Left, which is why I assumed you were just despondent over Santorum's defeat.

Anyway, have fun hating whatever populations of people you've never met float your boat.
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Gabu
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« Reply #183 on: May 07, 2007, 12:59:10 PM »

This is pretty interesting, I like how they have all the detail of French voting abroad.
That's the page for the Houston Consulate, showing the results in Dallas, Houston and Austin. But there you can download the PDF files for the entire USA results and the entire world, country by country.

http://www.consulfrance-houston.org/article.php3?id_article=836

It is interesting to see how the vote also resembled the U.S. voting patterns: Sarkozy did better in Texas and Florida and worse in San Francisco and Boston.
Sarkozy won in Mexico also Cheesy  and got 90% of the votes in Israel!

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus
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ThePrezMex
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« Reply #184 on: May 07, 2007, 01:06:23 PM »

This is pretty interesting, I like how they have all the detail of French voting abroad.
That's the page for the Houston Consulate, showing the results in Dallas, Houston and Austin. But there you can download the PDF files for the entire USA results and the entire world, country by country.

http://www.consulfrance-houston.org/article.php3?id_article=836

It is interesting to see how the vote also resembled the U.S. voting patterns: Sarkozy did better in Texas and Florida and worse in San Francisco and Boston.
Sarkozy won in Mexico also Cheesy  and got 90% of the votes in Israel!

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

haha yes there are some. Actually my roommate is French. There are several French students here at UT. By the way, all the ones I've met were supporting Sarkozy, or more accurate, hating Royal.
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afleitch
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« Reply #185 on: May 07, 2007, 01:17:25 PM »

Sarkozy won amongst French voters here in the UK Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #186 on: May 07, 2007, 01:26:26 PM »

]

I agree it isn't worth my time.  I didn't set out to take jabs at you, either, but you've made more irrational posts lately than anyone here on the Left, which is why I assumed you were just despondent over Santorum's defeat.

So you want to take the opportunity to bash me and say that I am still bitter about Santorum's defeat? Whatever. Seriously, pal, grow up. You have something against me and so you decide to attack every little post that I make which you may disagree with. And then to poke fun at me by saying that I am like this because Santorum lost is especially pathetic. That stopped being funny around January. Time for new material.

Unlike you, I am taken seriously here. To say I've made more irrational posts than anyone on the left on this forum is really silly also especially when your only argument of me being irrational is the fact that I don't like the French and I don't think the GOP will win Senate races in Colorado and probably won't take Virginia if John Warner retires. Yes, completely irrational.  Roll Eyes

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Well, since we want to be arrogant about this, I'll keep this going.

I never said I never met French people. Since you want to make this into me not being worldly enough, I'll let you know that I have dealt with the French in their own country. I've been to Europe twice which, for someone my age, is quite a privilege. On the way to Italy last year, my group had to make a stop in Paris. We were met with the typical rude French behavior and while my personal experience wasn't as nasty, I had others who accompanied me on the trip tell me how they were angry with the attitude that they were given.

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #187 on: May 07, 2007, 01:30:25 PM »

In fairness Phil, having bad experiences from two visits to Paris still doesn't make a dislike for all French people any less irrational.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #188 on: May 07, 2007, 01:35:57 PM »

Paris does not = France
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Gabu
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« Reply #189 on: May 07, 2007, 01:41:46 PM »

Well, since we want to be arrogant about this, I'll keep this going.

I never said I never met French people. Since you want to make this into me not being worldly enough, I'll let you know that I have dealt with the French in their own country. I've been to Europe twice which, for someone my age, is quite a privilege. On the way to Italy last year, my group had to make a stop in Paris. We were met with the typical rude French behavior and while my personal experience wasn't as nasty, I had others who accompanied me on the trip tell me how they were angry with the attitude that they were given.

So I wouldn't start telling me how I've never met anyone who happened to be French or insinuate that I'm clearly not worldly enough to engage in such a discussion.

From what I know of Paris, judging all French people based on Paris is like judging all Canadians based on Montreal.
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afleitch
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« Reply #190 on: May 07, 2007, 01:44:09 PM »


Hear, Hear.

Go somewhere more provincial, or ruggedly industrial.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #191 on: May 07, 2007, 02:05:55 PM »

In fairness Phil, having bad experiences from two visits to Paris still doesn't make a dislike for all French people any less irrational.

Well, it was one quick stop in Paris. I said two trips to Europe.  Tongue

I wasn't saying that my encounters while over there were justification. He was claiming that I had never met anyone who happened to be French which I was simply disproving.

Anyway, I have met the French during my travels and it does seem to back up my feelings. Some here are saying Paris does not equal France and that's fine but I doubt that every rude person on our Air France flight to Rome was a Parisian. I know people that have gone to France and complained about the same thing.

However, as I have said before, I treat people like individuals when I meet them. If I met someone who happened to be French and I liked them then I'd treat them accordingly.

Again, as I said before, call me whatever you want in terms of my personal problems with the French. My problem here was that HardRCafe has gone out of his way to pick fights with me over the smallest things.

This wasn't meant to be a discussion about how some of us feel about the people. It was a simple comment that could have been met with no hostility. When Hashmite saw that I said that I dislike the French, he said "You better not show that around me!" in what I believe was a light hearted manner. That's what should have been done with me and we could all go back to discussing the election. I will say, though, that I take offense if someone wants to make me out to be any less worldly about foreign cultures and people like HardRCafe tried to do with me. I am not some "Oh my God! I hate the French! Freedom fries and freedom toast!" I have had my experiences and I'll make my judgements based on those experiences.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #192 on: May 07, 2007, 04:47:16 PM »

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

Of course.  After all, Paris is in Texas.
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PGSable
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« Reply #193 on: May 07, 2007, 08:19:52 PM »

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

Right, Bayrou is creating a Mouvement Démocrate, but when? Does he have the time to establish a new party before June 10? I figured that he would stick to the UDF for now and create the MD during the months after the legislatives.

Either way, whether it runs under the banner of the UDF or the MD, I feel that the center might deny the UMP a majority in June (although the legislatives usually mirror the presidential results), in which case it would effectively decide who gets to form the government.
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Verily
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« Reply #194 on: May 07, 2007, 09:46:16 PM »

Bayrou will not be running with the UDF; some of the current UDFers will probably join the UMP while others will follow him. His new party is the MD (Democratic Movement).

There apparently already was a tiny Parti Democrate in France, so Bayrou's new party is the Mouvement Democrate.

Right, Bayrou is creating a Mouvement Démocrate, but when? Does he have the time to establish a new party before June 10? I figured that he would stick to the UDF for now and create the MD during the months after the legislatives.

Either way, whether it runs under the banner of the UDF or the MD, I feel that the center might deny the UMP a majority in June (although the legislatives usually mirror the presidential results), in which case it would effectively decide who gets to form the government.

I would expect the announcement within the next week. He probably wanted to wait until after the Presidential election in order to avoid the announcement being drowned out by Sarkozy and Royal.
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Verily
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« Reply #195 on: May 07, 2007, 10:11:30 PM »

If the polls are any indication, Sarkozy will struggle to get a majority:

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070506-sondage-soir-du-vote-les-francais-et-l-apres-presidentielle.htm


Will vote for...
Far left (various): 3%
Left (PS): 33%
Center (MD): 15%
Right (UMP): 37%
Far right (FN): 8%
Unsure: 4%
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #196 on: May 08, 2007, 12:03:21 AM »

Wait, there are French people in Texas?

get mah guns, cletus

Of course.  After all, Paris is in Texas.

And I thought it was in Illinois.

http://www.ci.paris.il.us/
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Hash
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« Reply #197 on: May 08, 2007, 01:22:54 AM »

Polls right now aren't worth much, before the real campaign has even begun, before Sarkozy is even President...
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Bono
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« Reply #198 on: May 08, 2007, 01:35:52 AM »

If the polls are any indication, Sarkozy will struggle to get a majority:

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2007/opi20070506-sondage-soir-du-vote-les-francais-et-l-apres-presidentielle.htm


Will vote for...
Far left (various): 3%
Left (PS): 33%
Center (MD): 15%
Right (UMP): 37%
Far right (FN): 8%
Unsure: 4%

Are you kidding? That's a 4% increase from the last elections.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #199 on: May 08, 2007, 01:45:54 AM »

Polls right now aren't worth much, before the real campaign has even begun, before Sarkozy is even President...

I suspect it will largely depend on how the socialist respond to rioting.

If they blame the rioting on Sarkozy and apologize for the rioting scum, they will pay dearly at the polls.
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