French Presidential Election; 2nd round thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Open!

Post campaign stuff, polls, etc here, and not first-round analysis. And vice-versa, obviously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bayrou will not endorse either candidate (BBC)

[Hash]

Bayrou announces creation of new party, Democratic Party. Supposed to run candidate in the June 07 general election.

I need to change my avatar so the "D" does not get associated with Bayrou.

[Keystone Phil]

Bayrou will not endorse either candidate (BBC)

[Hash]

He's smarter than I would think.

[Chesco ABB]

I'm a bit of a novice in regards to French presidential politics. What areas need to come in in what percentages for each candidate to win?

[Colin]

I'm a bit of a novice in regards to French presidential politics. What areas need to come in in what percentages for each candidate to win?

Well one candidate has to get more votes than the other in the second round. In the first round the top two candidates, if no candidate has reached 50% of the vote, go onto a second round where the one who recieves the most votes wins. Not really that exotic of a system.

[Cubby]

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=5460865

Interesting story from the Int'l Herald-Tribune (a paper made for foreigners and travelers by the New York Times and the Washington Post)

Maybe Bayrou won't endorse Segolene, but it looks like he dislikes Sarkozy more. He must be focusing on the June legislative elections because his biggest flaw in Round 1 was that he didn't have any supporters in Parliament.

Its funny how Sarkozy is so outraged by Royal and Bayrou debating each other. The man has to be in the spotlight 24/7 or else he feels neglected.

I don't know what to think about the PS leaving the Commies and joining the UDF. It sounds good from an American perspective, but apparently the Communists are still technically viable if they can get over 7% of the vote. (For some reason this article doesn't consider Besancenot and Laguiller communists).

[minionofmidas]

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=5460865
(For some reason this article doesn't consider Besancenot and Laguiller communists).

Because they aren't? (capital C Communists that is?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a random point of interest, in 2002 about 250,000 more people voted for the Commies in the legislative elections than voted for Hue a few months earlier.

[minionofmidas]

As a random point of interest, in 2002 about 250,000 more people voted for the Commies in the legislative elections than voted for Hue a few months earlier.

Lots of Communist MPs have a strong personal vote I'd reckon. Hue didn't have any crossover appeal. (Nor does Buffet o/c.)

[Tender Branson]

I think Sarkozy will win the second round with 53,4% to Royals 46,6%.

[Michael Z]

I think Sarkozy will win the second round with 53,4% to Royals 46,6%.

I disagree, I think she'll get 46,7%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Sarkozy will win the second round with 53,4% to Royals 46,6%.

I disagree, I think she'll get 46,7%.

Wrong! It'll be 46.8%

[Rob]

Sarko vs. Ségo in France

Faced with all this, rather than move to the left, where she felt support for her was assured, Ségo joined the nationalist and conservative clamor. Having initially voiced her admiration for the New Labour politics of Tony Blair, she began to defend the flag, arguing that each French home should display one, and played "La Marseillaise" rather than the traditional Socialist "Internationale" at each of her tricolor rallies. Her campaign seemed carefully based on Hillary Clinton's, following the latter's caution and conservatism. Ségo's social proposals evoked her past as a military daughter, as when she argued that delinquent teenagers, understood to be largely of immigrant stock, should be retrained by the army.

Her most daring economic promise, raising the minimum monthly wage by 250 euros over five years, would not even keep up with inflation, as was pointed out by her young Trotskyist opponent, Olivier Besancenot, whose postman's salary was not much higher and who polled an impressive 4 percent in the first round, more than twice that of the ever-declining Communists.

In a way, it's comforting that the US Democrats aren't the only sell-outs on the "left"...

[Verily]

Royal is pulling ever so slightly closer in the polls. I don't think she can pull off a victory, but it's looking slightly less unlikely now. After all, there were clearly once a majority of the French who supported her over Sarkozy (back in January), so the potential at least exists.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how the Taliban hostage situation in Afghanistan will play out?

[CARLHAYDEN]

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.

[Verily]

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

Ipsos's polls for the 28th and 29th had it at 52.5-47.5, a hair closer (which was the narrowing I was referring to).

[Alcon]

Was there much question Bayrou wouldn't endorse someone?  That seems to be part and parcel of his "look at my old tractor; aren't I too homely to be ideological?" thing. 

Royal's never been much of a leftist, at least from my uneducated perspective.  More of an odd mix of authoritarian "populist" socialism.  Is this nationalist stuff really much of a surprise?

[minionofmidas]

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.

Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.

[Gabu]

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.

Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.

Well then, I predict Sarkozy 51.4, to ensure that he won't get the closest prediction.

[CARLHAYDEN]

With but a week to go, it seems to me to be time to being predictions.

Mine is:

Sakorzy 51.5
Royal     48.5

Oh, the latest poll from ISPOS has it 53/47 Sarkozy/Royal (survey of 1219 respondents for period 4/24-26).

I suspect the turnout will be down from the first round.

Sounds good.
Just to be different I'll predict Sarkozy 51.6.

Well then, I predict Sarkozy 51.4, to ensure that he won't get the closest prediction.

Lewis is more likey to be on the mark.

My prediction was just about the best Royal can do.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Haven't seen preductions from Dave or Phil.  They both did very well in the first round.

[Umengus]

Bayrou is not so smart: democratic party in french is "parti démocratique", initials PD. PD is a very used insult in French (to say gay). You can image jokes on it... In Belgium, a guy had the same idea but before this problem, changed his mind.

For the second turn, I predict a solid victory for Sarkozy, by 53,4%. No polls have given a Royal win for january. Her only chance is to have a very very good report from the far left votes, a very good penetration in the Bayrou vote (65% at least) and a bad report of the FN votes on Sarkozy. Probably of this scenario: weak.