Which is your favorite Canadian province? Which province comes second?
Depends on how your classify them. My family lives almost entirely in Quebec, specifically Montreal, and this place has great meaning to me. I do love the Canadian west for producing Gordie Howe and Mark Messier.
Why should we not move to bring about peace negotiations in Ukraine, especially given how much of the forum wants a Cease Fire in Palestine? I have supported aid to this point, and I support the current aid package before Congress, but is it really realistic to believe that we can (A) drive Russia out of Crimea and those areas in Eastern Ukraine that they currently control, and (B) effect Regime Change in Russia?
Also: What would you think of a negotiated peace where (A) Russia keeps Crimea and the areas in Eastern Ukraine that appear to want to return to Russia, (B) Ukraine is admitted to NATO, (C) there is a NATO military base in Ukraine, and (D) steps are taken to repair and normalize our relations with Russia? Of course I would love to see total victory, Putin gone, etc. I am not convinced that it's possible. Do you think that course of action is realistic? Or do you really believe total victory is possible? (I'll listen to arguments from you that i will simply not entertain at all from any number of posters for reasons I won't discuss here.)
I will give you a proper, comprehensive answer Fuzzy.
1. I don't think comparing the war between Ukraine and Russia to the War in Gaza to be very profitable. The geopolitical and historical contexts are incredibly different. The situation on the ground is also very different, I support a humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza because there is a substantial civilian population in an extremely small urban area whose fate is basically up in the air right now due to the conditions of urban warfare. The situation in Ukraine doesn't resemble this at all.
I'll be straight. I oppose peace negotiations or a cease-fire in Ukraine, I think it's realistic for Ukraine to take back a lot of the land Russia currently occupies, but probably not Crimea. I do not think regime change in Russia is likely (or even necessarily desirable, the most powerful anti-Putin forces in Russia are those who think he is insufficiently ultranationalist). I oppose peace negotiations because I do not believe any peace agreement reached with Putin would be worth the paper it is signed on, nor do I believe Putin is likely to accept any deal that is not weighted in his favor. I also don't think the United States should coerce Ukraine into accepting a deal that is not in her best interest. Ultimately, I strongly believe that any realistic deal that Putin would agree to would only be used to buy time for Russia to rebuild her ammunition stockpiles and come back in a few years over some new trumped up excuse (one thing above all is true, Putin and his ilk have absolutely no shame). Putin has demonstrated an unyielding obsession with abolishing Ukrainian statehood, he's not likely to just give up on that. Now, I've admitted I don't think regime-change in Russia is likely, or the recapture of all of Ukraine's claimed territories. But ultimately American contributions to the Ukrainian war effort have a negligible effect on American taxpayers, and with Ukraine waging an existential war of national liberation, I think it is the least we can do. Every Ukrainian town that is liberated is a major victory for freedom. And I emphasize this the most, the war has only gone on for two years. Not that long in the grand scheme of things.
2. I will first say that I do not believe that such an agreement would ever be accepted, by Putin or by Ukrainian leadership. Ukraine will not sign an agreement that recognizes Russian control over large of swathes of eastern Ukraine, Russia will never accept Ukraine in NATO (ie, a permanently independent Ukraine, it would require Putin to give up on ever resolving these questions he believes are incredibly important). I do not think that total victory (2014 borders, Putin gone, free Belarus) is seriously possible, but the fighting has only gone on for two years, and the situation has evolved inconceivably in those two years, and the Ukrainians are more than willing to keep on the fighting. It's not as if we are doing the fighting ourselves. If by some miracle all parties sincerely agreed to such a proposal, I would be in favor of it, but only if the fighting persisted as a stalemate as it is now for some more time, how much I am not totally sure. Lastly I will challenge some of the assumptions here. It's never been established that there are areas in eastern Ukraine that want to join with Russia. In 2014 this was not true, the pro-Russian separatists there were basically entirely propped up by Russia with insufficient popular support. Since 2022, these regions have been occupied and the Ukrainian population has been scattered, deported to Siberia, and so on, and Russians have moved in so the population has obviously changed. But it would be seriously erroneous to say there are significant populations of Ukrainians anywhere that want to be part of Russia.
I hope this answers in your question. If I had to summarize I would just say, Putin is pathologically obsessed with destroying Ukraine and is unlikely to accept any long-term agreement where he doesn't get what he wants, and the fighting has not gone on for a very long time, a lot can still change.
