Why is metro Las Vegas so politically unique?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Demographically, one would Expect Clark County to be the sort of place Dems would reliably get >60% of the vote in. It's over 60% non-white and almost entirely urban/suburban. Yet, these days Rs usually hold the County below a 10% margin in most elections.

Furthermore, metro Vegas is really the only major sunbelt metro outside of Miami and RGV to outright be shifting right. In Miami and RGV, there are some obviously reasons why this has occurred (Cubans, the border), but the reason in Vegas is less obvious. Many other sunbelt cities are also fast growing, have Hispanic populations, and low educational attainment and still shifted left overall.

Another unique feature of Vegas is a lot of it's more well to do whiter suburbs have outright been shifting right, bucking shifts nearly everywhere else in the Country. Henderson, Anthem and Centennial Hills are the most obvious examples; shifting right from the Obama years despite being relatively "well to do" suburban whites.

Whites in metro Vegas seem somewhat abnormally Conservative. Looking at precinct results, I'd estimate throughout almost all of metro Vegas, whites vote was at least 65R-35D and there are no real pockets of liberal whites outside the 5 precincts making up the immediate downtown/Vegas strip.

Not only do whites vote heavily R, but turnout in heavily non-white communities in Vegas is uniquely poor in metro Vegas, especially given Nevada is a swing state that recieves active investment from both sides basically every cycle.

One thing that is notable about Clark County though is when it comes to actual issues, both social and economic, it tends to be quite left wing. This can be seen in recent ballot initiatives like the Equal Rights Amendment which got nearly 2/3rds of the vote in Clark, or polling reguarly suggesting Nevada is pro-choice on the same level as states like WA and CA.

If Vegas voted more in line with what you'd demographically expect, NV would be less of a worry for Dems, but because it's so uniquely Conservative it keeps Ds on their toes in NV.

So what's going on here? Is there a cultural or demographic reason that makes Vegas so conservative?

[Del Tachi]

Las Vegas is unique in that the entirety of the metro is pretty much contained in a single county.  The most comparable Sun Belt metros in this regard would be Phoenix or Houston, which are also mostly no greater than D +10. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Las Vegas is unique in that the entirety of the metro is pretty much contained in a single county.  The most comparable Sun Belt metros in this regard would be Phoenix or Houston, which are also mostly no greater than D +10. 

Fair point, but a large part of Maricopa and Harris counties not being very D is all the deep red exurbs that Clark County lacks, and rural Clark is so rural the number of people living in it is statistically insignificant in terms of election results. Ds poor performance in Clark is unique in that it comes from a poor performance within urban/suburban Las Vegas itself.

Also Maricopa is substantially less diverse than Clark, so Demographically you’d expect Clark to be a lot bluer than Maricopa than it actually is.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

On the other hand, Clark County is significantly less college educated than the national average. I think only 3 states have a lower bachelor degree attainment than Clark County (WV, MS, AR).

[TML]

Clark County has a relatively low share of people with college degrees (only about 26% in the 2020 Census). This means that there are many working-class people here; what's keeping many of them in the Democratic column is the fact that many of them are unionized. If unionization here were to decline in a manner similar to how it declined in the Upper Midwest and/or Appalachia, this would probably be enough to turn NV into a R-leaning state overall.

[Sol]

Las Vegas is the newest built big city in America; even very new growth cities like Phoenix were small towns and state capitols when LV was tumbleweeds. Its urban form is pretty much exclusively postwar development and consequently its urban structure is a bit more muddled. The result is a city with an extremely weak divide between city, suburbs, and exurbs, and thus more "mixed-up" demographically, leading to more homogenized voting patterns.

It's also a pretty working class city, famous for its strong unions of course. Las Vegas is also the kind of place where one might move if priced out of San Francisco or Los Angeles, which given racial income gaps means that it's pretty heavily Latino--it's also the most heavily Black MSA west of 100th meridian by a country mile. A city with a pretty working-class and very diverse demographic is the kind of place where you'd expect Biden to have seen harsh swings in 2020, and it's where you'd expect Democrats to struggle with turnout too even relative to demographically similar places.

The relatively weak white liberal vote here makes sense too in light of that since it's strongly correlated with metro areas with lots of white-collar jobs requiring degrees. I can't speak to the swings in some of the suburbs though, which is interesting.

Basically it's a giant gambling themed version of the Antelope Valley.

[Senator Incitatus]

Adding to the above that Clark is one place which definitely shifted politically in response to COVID restrictions given its heavy reliance on the tourism industry (both through attrition of Democratic voters and outrage among previously independent voters).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Nevada is a very unique state politically. On one hand, it is very urban and nonwhite compared to other states, which should favor Democrats. It is also quite liberal on the issues as OP mentioned. On the other hand, it has a lower share of college educated voters, which should favor Republicans.

[satsuma]

Maybe there's a California refugee effect going on. Las Vegas is the closest out-of-state major metro area to L.A., and the housing prices there are not California prices.

Fair point, but a large part of Maricopa and Harris counties not being very D is all the deep red exurbs that Clark County lacks, and rural Clark is so rural the number of people living in it is statistically insignificant in terms of election results. Ds poor performance in Clark is unique in that it comes from a poor performance within urban/suburban Las Vegas itself.

Also Maricopa is substantially less diverse than Clark, so Demographically you’d expect Clark to be a lot bluer than Maricopa than it actually is.

Off the top of my head, El Paso (CO) and SLC are almost one-county metros, but they have non-Hispanic White majorities, while Clark has a non-Hispanic White plurality. There are counties in California with significant cities and Hispanic majorities where Republicans seem to overperform. Let's check light-red Kern and light-blue Fresno... but there's the common issue in that Central Valley area, that between non-citizens, minors and apathy, there aren't that many votes per capita. Kern's 0.336 and Fresno's 0.362 are less than Clark's 0.429, which is more on par with Los Angeles County at 0.426 (and deep blue). Calculating that stat for all of California's counties...

Maybe if we want a closer comparison to Clark County, we should try the light-blue Inland Empire. San Bernardino County has 0.386 votes per capita and Riverside has 0.412, with Hispanic majorities. But while those counties drifted slightly left since flipping in 2008, Clark drifted right.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

The relatively weak white liberal vote here makes sense too in light of that since it's strongly correlated with metro areas with lots of white-collar jobs requiring degrees. I can't speak to the swings in some of the suburbs though, which is interesting.

Are we talking about North Las Vegas, the southwest suburbs, the southeast suburbs (Henderson-ish), or some combination of the above?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The relatively weak white liberal vote here makes sense too in light of that since it's strongly correlated with metro areas with lots of white-collar jobs requiring degrees. I can't speak to the swings in some of the suburbs though, which is interesting.

Are we talking about North Las Vegas, the southwest suburbs, the southeast suburbs (Henderson-ish), or some combination of the above?

Most interesting to me are suburbs like Henderson which have been swinging right despite being relatively high income and high education white suburbs.

[Sol]

The relatively weak white liberal vote here makes sense too in light of that since it's strongly correlated with metro areas with lots of white-collar jobs requiring degrees. I can't speak to the swings in some of the suburbs though, which is interesting.

Are we talking about North Las Vegas, the southwest suburbs, the southeast suburbs (Henderson-ish), or some combination of the above?

Most interesting to me are suburbs like Henderson which have been swinging right despite being relatively high income and high education white suburbs.

^These were what I was talking about.

[ottermax]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that political identity does drive some of the uniqueness of the Nevada political climate.

Particularly for white voters there is an identity of moving to Nevada to "escape" the high taxes of California (which I find to usually just be a proxy for high cost of living), and those voters just explicitly hold a more conservative identity than they would if they lived in Rancho Cucamonga, Santa Clarita, or Poway. Those white voters who migrate to Las Vegas tend to be more conservative to begin with.

However most of the migration is non-white. Non-white voters are arriving for similar reasons but don't generally have the same political identity, and are generally fairly liberal on social issues, but most overwhelmingly apathetic. Now this particular identity of liberal apathy shockingly aligns with Trump fairly well especially after seeing that the mass deportations that were feared didn't happen (at least in the lived reality of these voters). But what did happen were lockdowns led by Democrats.

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

The bolded part might have to do with why all 3 Vegas-area House Dems won by relatively comfortable margins last November, at least relative to online/pundit expectations.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

The bolded part might have to do with why all 3 Vegas-area House Dems won by relatively comfortable margins last November, at least relative to online/pundit expectations.

https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/can-trump-turn-the-silver-state-to





Vegas Suburban Crescent — 29% of the vote, R+4 in 2020, D+1.7 since 2016

To whatever extent Las Vegas has suburbs — rather than just being one big suburb — the crescent hugging the mountainous edges of the Vegas valley from Henderson all the way up to manicured subdivisions of Summerlin does the most to fit the bill. Casting almost 3 in 10 of the state’s votes, it’s the main bulwark of the state’s college-educated population, while still being solidly middle class: 37% of voters here have degrees, about the national average, and about 12% have incomes over $200,000. That’s in comparison to around 20% in the Philly suburbs and 25% in the northern Atlanta suburbs, which have college-educated majorities.

While I normally would like to create a region smaller than 30% of a state, that’s impractical here: only a small smattering of disparate precincts in Las Vegas have college-educated majorities differentiated from the suburban middle class.

Due to being whiter, the area remains to the right of the rest of the Vegas metro, though this fact makes it the only area in the metro that trended against Trump in 2020. Whites are 62% of adults — and certainly more among voters. Civic participation is higher here than anywhere else in the metro, and with lower turnout elsewhere, it punches above its weight — with 24% of the total population casting 29% of the state’s vote.

The area trended more strongly right than any other part of the Vegas metro between 2008 and 2016 (precinct data is missing for 2012, the usual pre-Trump comparison point), but education polarization was apparent in the 2016-20 trends, when it swung 1.6 points left while the rest of the Vegas metro, more downscale and minority — moved right.

Vegas Working Class Melting Pot — 20% of the vote, D+22 in 2020, R+1.6 since 2016

Geographically, this region is divided between a cluster of new-growth suburbs in the North Las Vegas and downtown neighborhoods surrounding the Strip (where any wealthier precincts are grouped in with the Suburban Crescent).

When Las Vegas was smaller, there were distinct racial enclaves of Latinos and African Americans centered in North Las Vegas. As the city grew, these residents and new movers fanned out into the region I call the Vegas Working Class Melting Pot, which sees working- and middle-class residents of all races living in integrated neighborhoods.

With a majority-minority population, the Working Class Melting Pot leans Democratic, but trended slightly Republican in 2020. 42% of adults are white, 31% are Hispanic, 16% are Black, and 9% are Asian—a healthy mix. Just 19% have college degrees. It’s the second most powerful voting bloc in the Las Vegas metro, casting 20% of the state’s vote, but with lower turnout than the Suburban Crescent. While both areas have nearly equal population shares, the Working Class Melting Pot casts 9 percent less of the statewide vote.

Vegas Asian Growth — 10% of the vote, D+11 in 2020, R+1.0 since 2016

Covering Enterprise and parts of Spring Valley in the southwest corner of the Las Vegas valley is an area still growing quickly in population thanks in large part to an influx of Asian Americans—Filipinos are the largest group, followed by Chinese. 

While only 25% Asian by voting age population, this area contains one of the most significant Asian American voting blocs outside New York and California, and the most important in a swing state.

The Vegas Asian Growth region grew 42% in its vote totals between 2016 and 2020, more than any other area in the state. Between 1990 and 2010, total population growth was 2,456% — code for there being virtually nothing there back in 1990 — while the Suburban Crescent grew 779%. Growth was still a healthy 37% between 2010 and 2020, followed by the Suburban Crescent at 22%.

Like other minority-heavy areas, Vegas Asian Growth trended a bit right in 2020 with some indication of the trend continuing in 2022, when Joe Lombardo and Adam Laxalt overperformed Trump in this Asian-heavy area by more than their overperformance in the Working Class Melting Pot. This will be an area to watch for racial realignment in 2024.

This area is solidly middle class with pockets of prosperity. It’s the second most educated area in the metro at 33% with college degrees and 8% have incomes over $200,000.

Vegas Minority Working Class — 8% of the vote, D+39 in 2020, R+7.2 since 2016

If there was a clear trend anywhere between 2016 and 2020, it was in the most densely Latino parts of Las Vegas and Nevada. These working class areas where Latinos form a majority swung 7 points since 2016. That’s not as much as Latino swings in other states like Texas and Florida, but this is, again, partly a function of an absence of entirely Latino population centers. The area is 55% Latino among adults — and less as a share of voters — 27% white, and 15% Black.

Nevertheless, margins here are still solidly Democratic: 39 points in 2016. If Trump can significantly erode this margin, he has a good shot at winning the state. The area was inelastic between 2008 and 2016, voting for the Democrat by 46 points both times.

Joe Lombardo outperformed Trump here more than any other part of the state — by 4.6 points. Even Adam Laxalt outperformed, by around 2 points, his best such performance statewide. This is evidence of continuing racial realignment after 2020.

This region is contained exclusively in long-settled parts of Las Vegas that have grown at a less torrid pace than elsewhere: 57% between 1990 and 2010 and just 5% between 2010 and 2020. The bulk of Las Vegas’s racial and ethnic minorities in the 1990s lived here; now, many have spread out to more “suburban” locales. This is largely the same story as in other states.

As a result of this relative demographic stability, this region has the highest percentage of people born in Nevada in the Las Vegas area — but that number is just 30%. It also has the highest number of foreign-born, also 30%. Just 1.5% earn over $200,000 a year. Less than 10% have a BA. Just 45% only speak English. With a 28% voter turnout in 2020, these neighborhoods have 13% of the state’s population but cast just 8% of the vote.

[YE]

No real college educated base (outside of a few suburban precincts) is the most unique characteristic of the Vegas metro area but it’s not the sole reason for why the Dems don’t do as well as the OP may expect. Metro Vegas is diverse, but much of that diversity is through a high Hispanic population which is low voter turnout, meaning it nets fewer votes than black majority metros we often see in the Midwest. Vegas isn’t unique in that regard though - Phoenix, Tucson, and parts of LA /Inland Enpire are similar. Democrats have stagnated in all of those places or would be in the case of Phoenix if educated suburbs weren’t zooming left.

With that said the rightward trend of the state is overstated on here. 2008 was a recession induced anomaly. Biden won Clark by only 10K less votes than Obama did in 2012 and netted 60K more votes than Kerry did. Clark becoming a greater % of the electorate will offset these swings.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Exclusive chart for paid subscribers? Huh; that's a new one. Am reasonably confident that there are at least three Talk Elections regulars who can usurp the data from the Census Bureau, crunch it themselves and post it here without the U.S. Copyright Office paying too much notice, though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Las Vegas is just such a wonderfully unique place because it forces our politicians to be much more thoughtful about what really matters to people and how to message those concerns. I get the sense that Vegas voters don't really care much for cultural hot-button issues in the same way they might motivate the base in other states. So you truly have to appeal to real solutions for economic issues like union support, taxation rates, and cost of living. This is how Obama won in a landslide, and part of what makes the Harry Reid machine work. Last year when Cortez Masto won against the odds, she insisted on messaging about the economy and abortion, and voters were smart enough to make the distinction between the policies.

As to the main question - Las Vegas is always going to be unique as long as it is a state that operates with a tourism based economy. Only Hawaii has a similar economic base, but it has the odd distinction of having an unusually large number of liberal retirees and other qualities that have kept it fairly left leaning (although one of the most "conservative" blue states).

The bolded part might have to do with why all 3 Vegas-area House Dems won by relatively comfortable margins last November, at least relative to online/pundit expectations.

Cut

Interesting piece - I’ll give a more thorough analysis on it when I have time but one thing I will say is I think Nevada’s growing Asian population is really under discussed.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Interesting piece - I’ll give a more thorough analysis on it when I have time but one thing I will say is I think Nevada’s growing Asian population is really under discussed.

Vegas AAPI turnout alone likely put CCM over the top in NV-SEN 2022

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Adding to the above that Clark is one place which definitely shifted politically in response to COVID restrictions given its heavy reliance on the tourism industry (both through attrition of Democratic voters and outrage among previously independent voters).

I presume also through former consistent non-voters.