If Crimea had a fair referendum in 2014 what percent of the vote would joining Russia have recieved?

[lfromnj]

Wonder what this forum is guessing. The floor for no should be the 12% or so Tatar population.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

probably high 50s I guess.
Of course, similar referenda on the issue in Luhansk and Donetsk would likely have gotten around the low 40s at the absolute most.

[It’s so Joever]

probably high 50s I guess.
Of course, similar referenda on the issue in Luhansk and Donetsk would likely have gotten around the low 40s at the absolute most.

This is my thinking pre everything.

BigSerg fails to realize his self selected circle of friends are not representative of the population. For all his hysteria over how Westerners are biased, he is too and doesn’t admit it.

[pppolitics]

Based on history, probably mid-40s.

[KaiserDave]

probably high 50s I guess.
Of course, similar referenda on the issue in Luhansk and Donetsk would likely have gotten around the low 40s at the absolute most.

I think this is about right.

Something around this

Crimea: 49-59%
Donetsk & Luhansk: 25-35%

Crimea had a credible Russian nationalist political base and pro Russia clientelist system way before 2014 or even 2004, add that to the Antimaidan movement and it should be enough.

The Russian nationalist base in Donbas was much weaker by comparison and the actual number of people who wanted to exit the Ukrainian state was much much smaller.

[BigSerg]

probably high 50s I guess.
Of course, similar referenda on the issue in Luhansk and Donetsk would likely have gotten around the low 40s at the absolute most.

This is my thinking pre everything.

BigSerg fails to realize his self selected circle of friends are not representative of the population. For all his hysteria over how Westerners are biased, he is too and doesn’t admit it.

Nevertheless, on the ground in Crimea, prevailing opinion at the inter-state and state level does not matter. ‘Reunification’ with Russia enjoys considerable legitimacy within Crimea among most of the peninsula’s population. It is also considered legitimate within Russia itself, where, in 2014, polls revealed rising levels of support for the annexation from 64% in March to 73% in September.

Our highlighting of the conundrum is based on the results of a public opinion survey we organised on the Crimean peninsula in December 2014. The survey was a random scientific survey of 750 respondents administered by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based polling firm with a reputation for integrity, professionalism and independence. We have worked with the Levada Center for over a decade on public opinion polling, within the Russian Federation in 2002, in the North Caucasus in 2005, and in the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia in 2010.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/crimean-conundrum/

[S019]

Crimea I think would vote to leave, but in general, I have very little sympathy for separatist movements. Most of the time they are done for the self serving reasons of the nationalist movement or of a few politicians and while borders are not permanent, a nation has the right to protect its unity. Therefore, I would not support a referendum on this issue.

[CumbrianLefty]

That survey was in December 2014, *after* the de facto annexation.

I would be rather more interested in any reliable polling taken leading up to it.

[BigSerg]

That survey was in December 2014, *after* the de facto annexation.

I would be rather more interested in any reliable polling taken leading up to it.

You got it, from our own 2013 government. The results are close, before the Maiden disaster. So yes, it's pretty obvious that joining Russia would have won.

https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf

[KaiserDave]

Only 23%-33% in favor of outright separatism is even lower then I remember - and it is consistent with what Andrew Wilson wrote on the subject, a referendum in 2014, a real one, would have been extremely close. There was an Antimaidan movement but only a minority of this movement were outright separatists, it speaks volumes that the Antimaidan extremists were never ever to replicate what happened in Kyiv in the eastern provinces, and would have accomplished absolutely nothing without poorly concealed Russian military support.

A sniveling coward like the above poster who has no respect for himself or humanity would not acknowledge this however. I say this because it is important for others to know he is lying. I mean…he called an over 20 point lead close.

[OSR stands with Israel]

That survey was in December 2014, *after* the de facto annexation.

I would be rather more interested in any reliable polling taken leading up to it.

It’s pretty much impossible given that Crimea was taken so soon after Maiden . So there wasn’t Anytime to get accurate polling on the issue before it happened

[BigSerg]

Only 23%-33% in favor of outright separatism is even lower then I remember - and it is consistent with what Andrew Wilson wrote on the subject, a referendum in 2014, a real one, would have been extremely close. There was an Antimaidan movement but only a minority of this movement were outright separatists, it speaks volumes that the Antimaidan extremists were never ever to replicate what happened in Kyiv in the eastern provinces, and would have accomplished absolutely nothing without poorly concealed Russian military support.

A sniveling coward like the above poster who has no respect for himself or humanity would not acknowledge this however. I say this because it is important for others to know he is lying. I mean…he called an over 20 point lead close.

Nice try, troll.






https://www.usagm.gov/wp-content/media/2014/06/Ukraine-slide-deck.pdf
http://avaazpress.s3.amazonaws.com/558_Crimea.Referendum.Poll.GfK.pdf

[BigSerg]

That survey was in December 2014, *after* the de facto annexation.

I would be rather more interested in any reliable polling taken leading up to it.

It’s pretty much impossible given that Crimea was taken so soon after Maiden . So there wasn’t Anytime to get accurate polling on the issue before it happened

This has aged pretty badly, you should have waited a few seconds. GFK, the leading German pollster did a poll just before the referendum, there was an overwhelming majority in favor of Russia (70%).

http://avaazpress.s3.amazonaws.com/558_Crimea.Referendum.Poll.GfK.pdf

[KaiserDave]

I'm not sure what BigSerg is trying to prove with those poll numbers - they are either after March 2014 and therefore irrelevant, disprove his own point, or are wildly inconsistent with themselves. It is deeply ironic to hear him calling myself a troll when he knows nothing of Ukrainian history or politics beyond the propaganda lines he uncritically accepts from the depths of the degenerate pro-war Russian blogosphere.

[BigSerg]

I'm not sure what BigSerg is trying to prove with those poll numbers - they are either after March 2014 and therefore irrelevant, disprove his own point, or are wildly inconsistent with themselves. It is deeply ironic to hear him calling myself a troll when he knows nothing of Ukrainian history or politics beyond the propaganda lines he uncritically accepts from the depths of the degenerate pro-war Russian blogosphere.

From 2009 to 2011 in the UN poll the numbers were consistent, don't try to manipulate things. The GFK poll was before the referendum and showed a similar result to the other polls. Literally all the data showed considerable support for union with Russia. Dude, you didn't even know Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s. It's pretty clear who is the illiterate regarding the Ukrainian situation.

[BigSerg]

Only 23%-33% in favor of outright separatism is even lower then I remember - and it is consistent with what Andrew Wilson wrote on the subject, a referendum in 2014, a real one, would have been extremely close. There was an Antimaidan movement but only a minority of this movement were outright separatists, it speaks volumes that the Antimaidan extremists were never ever to replicate what happened in Kyiv in the eastern provinces, and would have accomplished absolutely nothing without poorly concealed Russian military support.

A sniveling coward like the above poster who has no respect for himself or humanity would not acknowledge this however. I say this because it is important for others to know he is lying. I mean…he called an over 20 point lead close.

That's the way it is with these people. "I lie" being the only one who has shown consistent, independent polls from reliable sources, while the other guy...or yes, he has the always reliable, Trust me bro.

[KaiserDave]

I'm not sure what BigSerg is trying to prove with those poll numbers - they are either after March 2014 and therefore irrelevant, disprove his own point, or are wildly inconsistent with themselves. It is deeply ironic to hear him calling myself a troll when he knows nothing of Ukrainian history or politics beyond the propaganda lines he uncritically accepts from the depths of the degenerate pro-war Russian blogosphere.

From 2009 to 2011 in the UN poll the numbers were consistent, don't try to manipulate things. The GFK poll was before the referendum and showed a similar result to the other polls. Literally all the data showed considerable support for union with Russia. Dude, you didn't even know Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s. It's pretty clear who is the illiterate regarding the Ukrainian situation.

1. The same poll had residents supporting remaining within the Ukrainian state, the entire article talks non stop about the unreliability of polling in perceiving societal attitudes on this subject, and the article also mentions the poll you cited before.
2. What are you talking about? I am very well aware of the existence of the Crimean ASSR and its transfer from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. I am also aware of the 1991 Status Referendum which received a majority in Crimea to vindicate that transfer, and I am aware of the 2014 coup d'tat which ousted the legitimate government the Crimean Autonomous Republic and installed a Russian puppet regime.

[BigSerg]

I'm not sure what BigSerg is trying to prove with those poll numbers - they are either after March 2014 and therefore irrelevant, disprove his own point, or are wildly inconsistent with themselves. It is deeply ironic to hear him calling myself a troll when he knows nothing of Ukrainian history or politics beyond the propaganda lines he uncritically accepts from the depths of the degenerate pro-war Russian blogosphere.

From 2009 to 2011 in the UN poll the numbers were consistent, don't try to manipulate things. The GFK poll was before the referendum and showed a similar result to the other polls. Literally all the data showed considerable support for union with Russia. Dude, you didn't even know Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s. It's pretty clear who is the illiterate regarding the Ukrainian situation.

1. The same poll had residents supporting remaining within the Ukrainian state, the entire article talks non stop about the unreliability of polling in perceiving societal attitudes on this subject, and the article also mentions the poll you cited before.
2. What are you talking about? I am very well aware of the existence of the Crimean ASSR and its transfer from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. I am also aware of the 1991 Status Referendum which received a majority in Crimea to vindicate that transfer, and I am aware of the 2014 coup d'tat which ousted the legitimate government the Crimean Autonomous Republic and installed a Russian puppet regime.

Obvious troll, says obvious nonsense. The 1991 referendum was not a question of joining Russia or not, it was a scam concocted by the Western puppet government in which there was no option to join Russia.

[It’s so Joever]

Even by your own sources, you are more or less admitting indirectly that Donbas and Luhansk would NOT vote to be in Russia. And yet you support the genocide there…

[KaiserDave]

I'm not sure what BigSerg is trying to prove with those poll numbers - they are either after March 2014 and therefore irrelevant, disprove his own point, or are wildly inconsistent with themselves. It is deeply ironic to hear him calling myself a troll when he knows nothing of Ukrainian history or politics beyond the propaganda lines he uncritically accepts from the depths of the degenerate pro-war Russian blogosphere.

From 2009 to 2011 in the UN poll the numbers were consistent, don't try to manipulate things. The GFK poll was before the referendum and showed a similar result to the other polls. Literally all the data showed considerable support for union with Russia. Dude, you didn't even know Crimea was part of Russia until the 50s. It's pretty clear who is the illiterate regarding the Ukrainian situation.

1. The same poll had residents supporting remaining within the Ukrainian state, the entire article talks non stop about the unreliability of polling in perceiving societal attitudes on this subject, and the article also mentions the poll you cited before.
2. What are you talking about? I am very well aware of the existence of the Crimean ASSR and its transfer from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. I am also aware of the 1991 Status Referendum which received a majority in Crimea to vindicate that transfer, and I am aware of the 2014 coup d'tat which ousted the legitimate government the Crimean Autonomous Republic and installed a Russian puppet regime.

Obvious troll, says obvious nonsense. The 1991 referendum was not a question of joining Russia or not, it was a scam concocted by the Western puppet government in which there was no option to join Russia.

lol

[Devout Centrist]

Obvious troll, says obvious nonsense. The 1991 referendum was not a question of joining Russia or not, it was a scam concocted by the Western puppet government in which there was no option to join Russia.

Which Ukrainian officials, exactly, were part of this ‘Western Puppet Government’? The Communist Party of Ukraine maintained a 3/4ths majority in the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR prior to and during the referendum in 1991. Kravchuk himself had been a member of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union since 1958. When during that time was a Western puppet regime installed?

[BigSerg]

Even by your own sources, you are more or less admitting indirectly that Donbas and Luhansk would NOT vote to be in Russia. And yet you support the genocide there…

Before Maiden? I have no problem admitting it, after that, it's pretty obvious that most wanted to integrate into Russia, especially after 8 years of war, where both sides were killing each other and propaganda was doing its job. You had giant screens in the streets of Donbass broadcasting how Poroshenko was literally advocating genocide.

[KaiserDave]

Obvious troll, says obvious nonsense. The 1991 referendum was not a question of joining Russia or not, it was a scam concocted by the Western puppet government in which there was no option to join Russia.

Which Ukrainian officials, exactly, were part of this ‘Western Puppet Government’? The Communist Party of Ukraine maintained a 3/4ths majority in the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR prior to and during the referendum in 1991. Kravchuk himself had been a member of the Communist Party of Ukraine since 1958. When during that time was a Western puppet regime installed?

And by which westerners? George H.W. Bush had made very clear his position on Ukrainian secession from the USSR - he was not a fan!

[Devout Centrist]

And by which westerners? George H.W. Bush had made very clear his position on Ukrainian secession from the USSR - he was not a fan!

It’s an absolutely laughable statement, particularly because it ignores the very real and significant impact of the August Coup in 1991. Ukraine might have voted to remain a member of the new Soviet Union, if it hadn’t been for the chaos emanating from Moscow and the paternalistic attitude towards Ukrainians held by people like Gorbachev and Yeltsin.

[It’s so Joever]

Even by your own sources, you are more or less admitting indirectly that Donbas and Luhansk would NOT vote to be in Russia. And yet you support the genocide there…

Before Maiden? I have no problem admitting it, after that, it's pretty obvious that most wanted to integrate into Russia, especially after 8 years of war, where both sides were killing each other and propaganda was doing its job. You had giant screens in the streets of Donbass broadcasting how Poroshenko was literally advocating genocide.

See you can’t make this stuff up! Donbas and Luhansk should be free from Ukraine because Russian propaganda is working!

Maybe we should give half of Mexico to the narcos because their propaganda is doing well!