Is winning Cascade County a prerequisite for a Jon Tester victory in 2024?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 04, 2023, 05:26:28 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, VirginiŠ, Gracile)
  Is winning Cascade County a prerequisite for a Jon Tester victory in 2024?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Is winning Cascade County a prerequisite for a Jon Tester victory in 2024?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 15

Author Topic: Is winning Cascade County a prerequisite for a Jon Tester victory in 2024?  (Read 390 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,094


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 18, 2023, 09:32:27 PM »
« edited: September 19, 2023, 01:42:09 AM by TML »

Cascade County has been carried by all Democratic statewide winners in MT in living memory, including Jon Tester in all of his past senatorial victories. However, in recent election cycles, it has shown a significant rightward trend, and in 2020, it actually voted more Republican than the state at-large in all of the major statewide contests that year (President, US Senator, US House, Governor) for the first time in recent memory.

This begs the question: do you think it is still necessary for Jon Tester (or, for that matter, any Democratic candidate for statewide office in MT) to win Cascade County in order to win statewide overall?

I personally think the answer is no, if we use the 2020 results as the baseline. Those results suggest that a Democratic candidate can afford to lose Cascade County narrowly (i.e. by not more than 1-3 points or so) and still win statewide.
Logged
Maps are a good thing
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,837
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2023, 12:20:53 AM »

If he losses Helena and Great Falls then he'll lose his seat.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2023, 12:22:05 AM »

Itís probably possible for him to eke out a win while barely losing Cascade, but heíll obviously want to win it.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,619
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2023, 06:11:06 AM »

No but he canít afford to lose it by as much as Biden.
More important is getting double digits in Gallatin. Iíd argue he needs at least 60 there and 70 in Missoula
Logged
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,580
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2023, 08:30:24 PM »

It's certainly not a prerequiste.

No but he canít afford to lose it by as much as Biden.

Of course not. As the OP said, he can afford to lose it, but not by more than a few points.

More important is getting double digits in Gallatin. Iíd argue he needs at least 60 there and 70 in Missoula

I very highly doubt that's gonna happen, tbh.




Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.031 seconds with 14 queries.