How Republicans conquered Florida

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpmwhkNg5Dw

This is from Vox. Honestly a pretty superficial analysis that most of us sort of already know, but some of the charts were striking.

There 3 main reasons were:

1. Republicans are moving to Florida (accelerated by COVID)
2. Latinos in Florida are more Republicans
3. Florida Dems just suck

The money raised and spent charts were very striking; like it's not even comparable. In 2022 FL Dems spent basically zilch while FL Rs spent millions. Infact FL Rs are the most well-funded state party nationally.

One thing I sort of disagree on is that a large number of younger voters registering with neither party means those voters are "missing Democrat voters". It could just be generational turnover in FL is less favorable to Dems than in most other places. Sure, I could buy FL Dems, especially in recent cycles, have been rlly bad with GOTV, but you're just dealing with a fundmentally more conservative base.

[Nyvin]

A fourth factor that is probably overlooked but honestly worth considering is when Trump changed his legal residence from New York to Florida, and also the presence of Mar-a-Lago.   Republicans were never going to move to New York for Trump, but Trump actively declaring Florida as "the place to be" probably increased it's appeal to Trump voters tremendously.   

[King of Kensington]

There's probably an ideological "sorting" among retirees as well.  Conservative retirees go Florida, liberal retirees go to the Berkshires.   

[TML]

As one particular FL-based Democratic strategist put it, "[Florida Democrats] didn't lose the demographic battle - [they] lost the partisan organizing and persuasion battles."

[TDAS04]

There's probably an ideological "sorting" among retirees as well.  Conservative retirees go Florida, liberal retirees go to the Berkshires.   

I wonder if it’s also true that, the liberal retirees in Florida are—on average—older than the conservative retirees in Florida, and thus dying off faster.

[Progressive Pessimist]

No offense, but all those points were pretty obvious. No real original insight here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As one particular FL-based Democratic strategist put it, "[Florida Democrats] didn't lose the demographic battle - [they] lost the partisan organizing and persuasion battles."

Based on my calculations, Biden still would've lost Florida by about a point with full/equalized turnout. Obv these calculations are imperfect and there's def a MOE, but at this point even with solid D turnout, a lot of other things have to go right for Dems in FL.

[Maps are a good thing]

As one particular FL-based Democratic strategist put it, "[Florida Democrats] didn't lose the demographic battle - [they] lost the partisan organizing and persuasion battles."

No, they are absolutely losing the demographic battle. Reagan Generation retirees were never going to be a good group for Democrats and it was foolish they never anticipated this. Some of them still don't realize it!

[Roll Roons]

Having given it a lot of thought, Obama's approach to politics really did f**k over the Democrats here. Even if the demographic trends were going to work against them in FL, their decision to outsource basic party building after 2008 to a bunch of arrogant Ivy Leaguers who didn't know the state really did screw them over.

And despite everything, this state has 30 electoral votes, closes early and counts its votes very quickly. Even if Democrats have miraculously actually become good at politics in the last 2-3 years, their mistakes here will haunt them for a long, long time.

[Old School Republican]

Having given it a lot of thought, Obama's approach to politics really did f**k over the Democrats here. Even if the demographic trends were going to work against them in FL, their decision to outsource basic party building after 2008 to a bunch of arrogant Ivy Leaguers who didn't know the state really did screw them over.

And despite everything, this state has 30 electoral votes, closes early and counts its votes very quickly. Even if Democrats have miraculously actually become good at politics in the last 2-3 years, their mistakes here will haunt them for a long, long time.

I mean its basically what happened to the TX Dems in the 1990s and it seems like TX and FL are now switching places from where they have been since 1996.  FL being the solidly large GOP state and TX being a battleground state(wont happen till 2032) that the GOP must win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Having given it a lot of thought, Obama's approach to politics really did f**k over the Democrats here. Even if the demographic trends were going to work against them in FL, their decision to outsource basic party building after 2008 to a bunch of arrogant Ivy Leaguers who didn't know the state really did screw them over.

And despite everything, this state has 30 electoral votes, closes early and counts its votes very quickly. Even if Democrats have miraculously actually become good at politics in the last 2-3 years, their mistakes here will haunt them for a long, long time.

Especially since most folks watching the election had for years been fed the idea FL had been the quintessential swing state it'll just be a Dem morale drain (R morale boost) at the start of every election night.

It's really just us election nerds that know Rs winning FL isn't indicative of much nationally at this point (though if Ds are winning FL they're almost certainly having a good night).

[Live Free or Die!]

I think we need to wait until 2024 before actually drawing this conclusion. My theory is still that most of the 2020/2022 shift has been due to DeSantis selling Florida as a "free state" during COVID, which is no longer a salient issue.

I think Republicans have gotten overconfident with their 6 week abortion bans, Pat Bateman anti-LGBTQ ads, banning AP courses, and neo-Nazi rallies. Abortion will be on the ballot in 2024, and it's likely Republicans won't see much of a turnout advantage in 2024. In addition, they are actually running a good candidate for Senate this time, versus someone who masterminded the disastrous 2022 Republican Senate platform, which included sunsetting Social Security.

If we look at Florida ideologically, it really isn't that conservative. It's more pro-choice than WI/MI/PA/GA, and even VA. It's probably is very friendly to gun control policies compared to other states. It passed a minimum wage increase over 60-40.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think we need to wait until 2024 before actually drawing this conclusion. I think Republicans have gotten overconfident with their 6 week abortion bans, Pat Bateman anti-LGBTQ ads, banning AP courses, and neo-Nazi rallies. Abortion will be on the ballot in 2024, and it's likely Republicans won't see much of a turnout advantage in 2024. In addition, they are actually running a good candidate for Senate this time.

I think this is a fair point, but if so, why didn't this show up like at all in 2022? There literally wasn't even a small ounce of positivity in the 2022 FL results for Dems.

Like I get Dems didn't rlly invest in FL in 2022, but even with investment and better base turnout, a 15+ point defecit is very very large to close.

I could def see the abortion referendum succeeding as Trump and Scott win the state by mid-single digits. We've seen so many cases where Democratic policy positions on ballot initiatives overperform statewide Ds pretty big time.

[Live Free or Die!]

I think we need to wait until 2024 before actually drawing this conclusion. I think Republicans have gotten overconfident with their 6 week abortion bans, Pat Bateman anti-LGBTQ ads, banning AP courses, and neo-Nazi rallies. Abortion will be on the ballot in 2024, and it's likely Republicans won't see much of a turnout advantage in 2024. In addition, they are actually running a good candidate for Senate this time.

I think this is a fair point, but if so, why didn't this show up like at all in 2022? There literally wasn't even a small ounce of positivity in the 2022 FL results for Dems.

Like I get Dems didn't rlly invest in FL in 2022, but even with investment and better base turnout, a 15+ point defecit is very very large to close.

I could def see the abortion referendum succeeding as Trump and Scott win the state by mid-single digits. We've seen so many cases where Democratic policy positions on ballot initiatives overperform statewide Ds pretty big time.

DeSantis was mainly selling Florida as free state during COVID, which was very popular in 2022.

In addition, DeSantis governed as a moderate initially, passing bills increasing teacher pay and on the environment. In his last weeks before reelection, he met with Biden and dealt with Hurricane Ian very well. It makes sense that he would get a heavy boost that popular incumbent governors do, like DeWine and Laura Kelly. The DeSantis of 2022 was not like the DeSantis of 2023 at all.

Rubio was a very strong candidate himself and is almost an institution in Florida, having outperformed Trump by 6.5 in 2016. This means that a replacement level candidate could've won by only around 10 points. The electorate was about Trump +11, meaning that that it's about a wash in terms of persuasion.

More importantly regarding the abortion referendum, it ensures that Democrats won't get hit in turnout like they did in 2022. Even in 2022, Democrats had about a 3 point disadvantage in turnout versus registration numbers (turnout was R +2 compared to the registration of D +1). It they neutralize turnout, the state could absolutely become competitive, especially at the Senate level.

[Pericles]

The vote switching of Latinos seems like the biggest one, if that is a permanent realignment then that would take Florida off the table on its own.

It does look like 2018 was the turning point for Democrats giving up on Florida, a justified decision but that clearly will be blowing out the margins against them. 2022 was an anomaly in some ways but in US politics there isn't a practical difference between losing by 5% or 15%, so Democrats just have to focus on turning a 1% deficit into a 1% win in other states instead.

[Old School Republican]

The vote switching of Latinos seems like the biggest one, if that is a permanent realignment then that would take Florida off the table on its own.

It does look like 2018 was the turning point for Democrats giving up on Florida, a justified decision but that clearly will be blowing out the margins against them. 2022 was an anomaly in some ways but in US politics there isn't a practical difference between losing by 5% or 15%, so Democrats just have to focus on turning a 1% deficit into a 1% win in other states instead.

For House seats there is

[Pericles]

The vote switching of Latinos seems like the biggest one, if that is a permanent realignment then that would take Florida off the table on its own.

It does look like 2018 was the turning point for Democrats giving up on Florida, a justified decision but that clearly will be blowing out the margins against them. 2022 was an anomaly in some ways but in US politics there isn't a practical difference between losing by 5% or 15%, so Democrats just have to focus on turning a 1% deficit into a 1% win in other states instead.

For House seats there is

None of the House seats in Florida were competitive in 2022 and are unlikely to be when a Republican trifecta controls redistricting. Besides, a House seat or two isn't enough to make such a big investment worthwhile-otherwise Democrats would treat Missouri and Tennessee like swing states and they just aren't.

[King of Kensington]

There's probably an ideological "sorting" among retirees as well.  Conservative retirees go Florida, liberal retirees go to the Berkshires.   

I wonder if it’s also true that, the liberal retirees in Florida are—on average—older than the conservative retirees in Florida, and thus dying off faster.

Makes sense.  The Silents probably didn't have an "ideological" view on Florida, Boomers likely do.

[Tekken_Guy]

The vote switching of Latinos seems like the biggest one, if that is a permanent realignment then that would take Florida off the table on its own.

It does look like 2018 was the turning point for Democrats giving up on Florida, a justified decision but that clearly will be blowing out the margins against them. 2022 was an anomaly in some ways but in US politics there isn't a practical difference between losing by 5% or 15%, so Democrats just have to focus on turning a 1% deficit into a 1% win in other states instead.

For House seats there is

None of the House seats in Florida were competitive in 2022 and are unlikely to be when a Republican trifecta controls redistricting. Besides, a House seat or two isn't enough to make such a big investment worthwhile-otherwise Democrats would treat Missouri and Tennessee like swing states and they just aren't.

A lot of them were fairly close at the presidential level in 2020. Trump won FL-27 by only a few thousand votes, won FL-15 by 3, FL-07 by 5, and FL-13 and FL-04 by 6-7.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The vote switching of Latinos seems like the biggest one, if that is a permanent realignment then that would take Florida off the table on its own.

It does look like 2018 was the turning point for Democrats giving up on Florida, a justified decision but that clearly will be blowing out the margins against them. 2022 was an anomaly in some ways but in US politics there isn't a practical difference between losing by 5% or 15%, so Democrats just have to focus on turning a 1% deficit into a 1% win in other states instead.

For House seats there is

None of the House seats in Florida were competitive in 2022 and are unlikely to be when a Republican trifecta controls redistricting. Besides, a House seat or two isn't enough to make such a big investment worthwhile-otherwise Democrats would treat Missouri and Tennessee like swing states and they just aren't.

A lot of them were fairly close at the presidential level in 2020. Trump won FL-27 by only a few thousand votes, won FL-15 by 3, FL-07 by 5, and FL-13 and FL-04 by 6-7.

A lot of these seats are places that topline may seem competative for Ds, but due to a combination of strong incumbent, downballot ticket splitting for Rs, and those seats shifting away from Dems, it's not rlly worth the investment on Dems part, especially since they can easily win the House without these seats.