How can Trump beat Biden if he barely beat clinton?
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October 04, 2023, 07:08:16 PM
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  How can Trump beat Biden if he barely beat clinton?
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Author Topic: How can Trump beat Biden if he barely beat clinton?  (Read 850 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: September 17, 2023, 07:53:56 PM »

2016 was literally a perfect storm for Trump. Trump faced a deeply unpopular opponent with a lot of baggage, a complacent Democratic party who stayed home because they were confident he'd lose, and ended up barely squeaking out a victory in the electoral college.

The one thing Trump has going for him this time is that Biden is also unpopular, but he no longer gets to benefit from Democratic complacency and Biden has an incumbency advantage Clinton didn't.
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2023, 08:11:24 PM »

Biden is as unpopular as Clinton was in 2016, perhaps slightly more so. Trump is also slightly more popular than he was in 2016, and way more popular among minority voters.
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dw93
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2023, 08:52:50 PM »

Complacency and/or a recession. A third party candidate could is more likely to hurt Biden than it is Trump too. While I still think Biden is favored at this point, the Democrats need to stop banking on the indictments and any possible convictions alone sinking Trump. They need to offer an agenda for a 2nd term.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2023, 09:08:57 PM »

Complacency and/or a recession. A third party candidate could is more likely to hurt Biden than it is Trump too. While I still think Biden is favored at this point, the Democrats need to stop banking on the indictments and any possible convictions alone sinking Trump. They need to offer an agenda for a 2nd term.

1. Democrats aren't going to be complacent again after 2016 so that probably solves that issue.
2. Why would third parties hurt Biden more than they even hurt Clinton in 2016?
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dw93
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2023, 10:29:28 PM »

Complacency and/or a recession. A third party candidate could is more likely to hurt Biden than it is Trump too. While I still think Biden is favored at this point, the Democrats need to stop banking on the indictments and any possible convictions alone sinking Trump. They need to offer an agenda for a 2nd term.

1. Democrats aren't going to be complacent again after 2016 so that probably solves that issue.
2. Why would third parties hurt Biden more than they even hurt Clinton in 2016?

Democrats may not be complacent again, but keep in mind 2020 was decided by 45K votes across 3 state, so with that in mind if enough people in the middle stay home or vote third party (I don't see any Biden '20 voters swinging to Trump in '24 at this juncture) or enough far leftist stay home or vote for Cornel West, that could be enough to put Trump in the White House, and if Biden's favorables remain where they are now next year, if there is a strong third party candidate, especially one from the center, it could very easily hurt Biden on the same level that it hurt Clinton in 2016.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2023, 11:19:28 PM »

He can't he's a J6 criminal
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2023, 12:06:20 AM »

Biden is as unpopular as Clinton was in 2016, perhaps slightly more so. Trump is also slightly more popular than he was in 2016, and way more popular among minority voters.

None of this is true.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2023, 01:33:30 AM »

A high share of 3rd party voters and if Biden stumbles on the campaign trail. What Trump would have to do is stay on message, especially cost of living and immigration. Both are Biden's weakest spots. I'm skeptical he's capable of that though as he became increasingly unhinged.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2023, 06:08:13 PM »

I agree that soft Biden supporters from 2020 going third party or sitting out the election could create another situation where Trump wins like in 2016. I still maintain that it's really the only way he wins again.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2023, 06:48:43 PM »

What gets ignored very intentionally is that Trump probably would not have won in 2016 without high third party votes. What is also ignored is that he lost re-election without high third party votes. His percentages shifted slightly upward in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but declined in Arizona and Georgia which indicates he picked up fewer right-leaning third party votes from 2016 (there were fewer of these anyway).

If anything it's Republicans who are running very complacent because they think Trump is 100% guaranteed to win, whereas Democrats are running on realistic expectations.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2023, 07:27:59 PM »

What gets ignored very intentionally is that Trump probably would not have won in 2016 without high third party votes. What is also ignored is that he lost re-election without high third party votes. His percentages shifted slightly upward in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but declined in Arizona and Georgia which indicates he picked up fewer right-leaning third party votes from 2016 (there were fewer of these anyway).

If anything it's Republicans who are running very complacent because they think Trump is 100% guaranteed to win, whereas Democrats are running on realistic expectations.

Not just realistic expectations, but fear of Trump again. The American public was overestimated in 2016 when too many assumed Trump couldn't win, and that hindsight probably made the difference in 2020. Should that persist, which I think it will-eventually-Biden should come out on top again.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2023, 12:22:27 AM »

Because Biden barely beat Trump and is less popular now than when he won. Meanwhile Trump has dropped the rigged election stuff and is focusing on policies that have a significant amount of widespread appeal. On the other hand, Biden's presidency has been mediocre at best, and while 41% approval isn't terrible its not a position he wants to be in right now. I don't think Trump is favored, but I do have the race in the tossup category. Trump's footing has been significantly improved since the conclusion of the 2022 midterms.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2023, 12:36:31 AM »

Because 2024 is a different year with different circumstances. However, just because he could win doesnít mean that he will.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2023, 04:07:35 AM »

Because Biden barely beat Trump and is less popular now than when he won. Meanwhile Trump has dropped the rigged election stuff and is focusing on policies that have a significant amount of widespread appeal. On the other hand, Biden's presidency has been mediocre at best, and while 41% approval isn't terrible its not a position he wants to be in right now. I don't think Trump is favored, but I do have the race in the tossup category. Trump's footing has been significantly improved since the conclusion of the 2022 midterms.


Yeah Biden is up 3 pts in MI and we won WI by 11 and PA is special Edays lol Trump has no chance and 3 States
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GAinDC
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2023, 08:41:52 AM »

Biden is as unpopular as Clinton was in 2016, perhaps slightly more so. Trump is also slightly more popular than he was in 2016, and way more popular among minority voters.

None of this is true.

Don't even bother. This guy is a massive concern troll. I had to put him on ignore.
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Electric Circus
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2023, 11:39:38 AM »

In 2016, the incumbent Democratic president was a lot more popular and economic confidence was higher than either indicator is today. It was in no way a "perfect storm" for a Democratic loss. It was just a close election in which candidate effects and campaign effects mattered.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2023, 12:40:39 PM »

If 2016 was such a "perfect storm" for Trump, then why did everyone think he would lose?
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2023, 12:57:55 PM »

If 2016 was such a "perfect storm" for Trump, then why did everyone think he would lose?
Because his approvals were trash duh! That's the only reason Clinton got as close as she did
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2023, 01:00:35 PM »

If 2016 was such a "perfect storm" for Trump, then why did everyone think he would lose?

Lol there was no Pandemic everything isn't about 2016byou guys have lost every Eday since 2018
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Atlas Hive Mind (on steroids!)
HL23
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2023, 06:57:00 PM »

If Trump just barely beat Clinton, how could he possibly hope to stand any chance, once he gets matched up against Biden at last?

Because Clinton was unequivocally a far stronger, more dynamic, more persuasive, more energetic, and more inspirational candidate than Biden.

Trump's footing has been significantly improved, since the conclusion of the 2022 midterms.

How? What's different  now  that  wasn't  before  then?

Biden is as unpopular as Clinton was in 2016, perhaps slightly more so. Trump is also slightly more popular than he was in 2016, and way more popular among minority voters.

Preach, sibling!

If 2016 was such a "perfect storm" for Trump, then why did everyone think he would lose?

Precisely  my question  too!

In 2016, the incumbent Democratic president was a lot more popular, and economic confidence was higher than it stands today.

It was, in no way, a "perfect storm" for a Democratic loss. It was just a close election, in which candidate effects and campaign effects mattered.
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KEmperor
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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2023, 08:42:20 PM »

I think it's a combination of a number of factors.  There are a lot of die hard Trumpers that honestly believe the lie that the election was stolen.  On top of that, Biden is not doing a great job and the economic situation is poor leading to a lot of resentment.  I seriously hope Trump doesn't get the nomination but I feel like he probably will. 
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2023, 08:52:56 PM »

Trump's footing has been significantly improved, since the conclusion of the 2022 midterms.

How? What's different  now  that  wasn't  before  then?
He's pretty much shut up about the 2020 election stuff and focused on populist policy again. The only people who want to talk about the 2020 election and Trump's views on it these days are the Democrats (and Kari Lake).
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2023, 10:44:21 PM »

How can Cleveland defeat Harrison if he barely beat Blaine?...EXACTLY!
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2023, 02:57:06 PM »

He canít. 2016 Trump no longer exists. You cannot compare 2016 and 2024. Completely different era. Completely different electorate. And neither bodes well for the gop for the tiniest chance of an upset.
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BG-NY (DuleFan)
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2023, 02:58:40 PM »

Going to miss the constant spam from the sock above if Trump wins next year.
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