Realistic West Wing Presidential Elections 2002 and 2006
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  Realistic West Wing Presidential Elections 2002 and 2006
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Author Topic: Realistic West Wing Presidential Elections 2002 and 2006  (Read 35092 times)
anvi
anvikshiki
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« Reply #25 on: January 01, 2009, 04:27:44 PM »

Thanks for the help, defe07!  I'm new at this.
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defe07
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« Reply #26 on: January 01, 2009, 09:04:01 PM »

Thanks for the help, defe07!  I'm new at this.

Any time. Smiley
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Nixon in '80
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« Reply #27 on: January 02, 2009, 02:02:47 AM »

Who would be Santos' 2010 opponent?  I presume not Vinick again because he would prsumably still be at State.  Would it be Haffley, the former President Walkin who filled in for Bartlet during the Zoey kidnapping, or Russell, former Republican congressman and majority leader in the Senate?  Man, I'm a nerd.


Ray Sullivan, Governor of West Virginia and Vinick's running mate, was mentioned as the front-runner for the 2010 nomination after the election...

like Palin is now...

I don't know how much stock I'd put in that, though.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #28 on: January 02, 2009, 02:08:11 AM »

Anvikshiki might you be so kind as to add an "[" to your 2010 map so screen can be back to its normal size? Thanks Smiley

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anvi
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« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2009, 01:10:37 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2009, 02:18:14 PM by anvikshiki »

Here is a new West Wing puzzle.

Let's say that the kidnapping of Zoey Bartlet, President Josiah Bartlet's daughter, happens not at the beginning of Bartlet's second term as depicted, but toward the end of his first term, in response to the covert assassination of Qumar's defense minister, Abdul Sharif.  The distraught Bartlet steps aside, and as depicted, the speaker of the House and congressman from the Missouri's 6th district Glen Allen Walkin (played by John Goodman) assumes the presidency for a few days, during which he bombs Bah'i terrorist camps in Qumar, all as depicted in the show.  After three days, Bartlet's daughter is safely recovered and he re-assumes the presidency.  Instead of picking Colorado congressman Bob Russell to take the vice presidency as in the show, Bartlet picks Secratary of State Louis Berryhill of New York to be his VP.  Note that, without John Hoynes of Texas as his running-mate, he having resigned the presidency caught in a sex scandal, Bartlet's appeal in the south is weakened.

Walkin decides to enter the race for the presidency in 2002 (?).  Having served as the acting president, and as a conservative Republican, he beats moderate Florida governor Robert Ritchie handily to win the Republican nomination.  Walkin picks powerful conservative House majority whip Jeffrey Haffley of Washington to be his running mate, so the Bartlet-Berryhill ticket is facing two smart, tough conservative Republicans.  The issues in the race primarily boil down to Bartlet's honesty; he has been caught and censured by Congress for lying about MS in his first term and covertly assasinating a foreign officer of state.  There is a limit to how far Walkin can take political advantage of the assasination, because he was a member of the Gang of Eight during the crisis and voiced agreement with Bartlet's decision during his term as Acting President.  Still, the downturn in the markets puts economic issues in play as well, with debates about what kind of stimmulus package the country needs raging. 

How does the election turn out?

President Josiah Bartlet (D-New Hampshire)/Louis BerryhIll (D-New York)
Former President Glen Allan Walkin (R-Missouri)/Jeffrey Haffley (R Congress, Washington)

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2009, 01:54:22 PM »

I was recently looking at Presidential maps from the 2002 and 2006 Presidential Elections on the West Wing, and I was thinking to myself, Jed Bartlet winning North Dakota? That can't be right. Or Matt Santos winning South Carolina? I'll post both election maps, and I'd like for you to post 'realistic' outcomes for the 2002 and 2006 West Wing Presidential Elections. Thanks Rockefeller Republican.

2002 Presidential Election:

Jed Bartlet/John Hoynes (D) 423 EV
Robert Ritchie/Jeff Heston (R) 115 EV



*Note: EV totals are the ones from the West Wing

2006 Presidential Election:

Matt Santos/Leo McGarry (D) 272 EV
Arnold Vinick/Ray Sullivian (R) 266 EV



Fantastic idea !
I watched the first two seasons of West Wing and I just ADORE it ! Cheesy

So, here is my map for 2002 :


Bartlet/Hoynes : 423
Ritchie/Heston : 115

And 2006 :



Santos/McGarry : 272
Vinick/Sullivan : 266
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anvi
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« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2009, 07:32:18 PM »

My maps for the two elections as depicted on the show:

2002
President Josiah Bartlet (D-New Hampshire) / John Hoynes (D-Texas)  339
Governor Robert Ritchie (R-Florida) / Jeff Heston (R ?)  199



2006
Congressman Matthew Santos (D-Texas) / Leo McGary (D-Illinois)  274
Senator Arnold Vinick (R-California) / Governor Ray Sullivan (R-West Virginia)   264



 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #32 on: March 28, 2009, 06:57:31 AM »

I update my predictions with corrected results ( Florida, California ), popular vote and adding a map for the 1998 election :

1998 Sad



Bartlet : 48%, 303 E.V.
[unknown republican] : 39%, 235 E.V.

2002 Sad



Bartlet : 54%, 423 E.V.
Ritchie : 43%, 115 E.V.

2006 Sad



Santos : 49%, 272 E.V.
Vinick : 49%, 266 E.V.
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anvi
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« Reply #33 on: March 28, 2009, 02:02:27 PM »

The Santos-Vinick election is a fun one to think about, actually.  All the scenarios were fine until the shows depicting the election itself.  The election night episodes seem to have even forgotten about the 2002 results, as they suggested Bartlet lost the Dakotas when the 2002 election episodes said Bartlet won them.  The election night episodes featured the West Wing script writers completely losing their wits.  There is no way that Santos would have won South Carolina, and he would probably have lost Missouri badly.  I also don't think Santos would win Texas; I don't think a Democratic mayor of Houston takes the whole state, especially given how Vinck is depicted as having the support of oil companies.

I think, in the Santos-Vinick race, Santos has to win the following states: Iowa, because Vinick hit almost bottom in the Iowa primaries because he wouldn't take the ethonol pledge while Santos swollowed it; Pennsylvania, because Santos came to Goveror Eric Baker's defense at the Democratic convention, and he wins enough of Bakers confidence for them to pick Baker as their new VP nominee at the end of the show, and Michigan.  I think Santos wins in Virginia and North Carolina might be plausible, given Santos' military background and perhaps support from the NC research triangle.  Florida would have been a real tossup.  Still, I think a Republican as moderate as Vinick with his market committments and foreign policy background still holds on to these states by small margins.

On the other hand, I think Vinick does pick up a few wins in New England (1 EV from Maine and New Hampshire sound reasonable), and, as mentioned, I think he wins Missouri comfortably and Texas by single digits.  However, I think the show, until the election night episodes, set Vinck up to lose California because of the San Andreo event, which would have put a huge dent in the support in southern California Vinick would have absolutely needed to win the state. 

The way the election night shows were written was a huge disappointment coming at the end of two seasons of campaign shows which were really outstanding.

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defe07
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« Reply #34 on: March 28, 2009, 02:17:27 PM »

I wonder how the 2002 election map would look like if Seth Gillette decided to pull a Nader and run against Bartlet.
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anvi
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« Reply #35 on: March 28, 2009, 02:28:41 PM »

That would be interesting.  Gillette was a lefty-populist Democratic Senator from North Dakota in the show, wasn't he?  With Bartlet nominated by the Democrats, he would have had to run as an Indpenedent.  So, Gillette might have taken the Dakotas, and he would probably have tightened up things in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. 
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #36 on: March 28, 2009, 02:52:03 PM »

The Santos-Vinick election is a fun one to think about, actually.  All the scenarios were fine until the shows depicting the election itself.  The election night episodes seem to have even forgotten about the 2002 results, as they suggested Bartlet lost the Dakotas when the 2002 election episodes said Bartlet won them.  The election night episodes featured the West Wing script writers completely losing their wits.  There is no way that Santos would have won South Carolina, and he would probably have lost Missouri badly.  I also don't think Santos would win Texas; I don't think a Democratic mayor of Houston takes the whole state, especially given how Vinck is depicted as having the support of oil companies.

I think, in the Santos-Vinick race, Santos has to win the following states: Iowa, because Vinick hit almost bottom in the Iowa primaries because he wouldn't take the ethonol pledge while Santos swollowed it; Pennsylvania, because Santos came to Goveror Eric Baker's defense at the Democratic convention, and he wins enough of Bakers confidence for them to pick Baker as their new VP nominee at the end of the show, and Michigan.  I think Santos wins in Virginia and North Carolina might be plausible, given Santos' military background and perhaps support from the NC research triangle.  Florida would have been a real tossup.  Still, I think a Republican as moderate as Vinick with his market committments and foreign policy background still holds on to these states by small margins.

On the other hand, I think Vinick does pick up a few wins in New England (1 EV from Maine and New Hampshire sound reasonable), and, as mentioned, I think he wins Missouri comfortably and Texas by single digits.  However, I think the show, until the election night episodes, set Vinck up to lose California because of the San Andreo event, which would have put a huge dent in the support in southern California Vinick would have absolutely needed to win the state. 

The way the election night shows were written was a huge disappointment coming at the end of two seasons of campaign shows which were really outstanding.



Good analysis. however, don't forget that the telefilm has his own alternative political history, and it could be different than ours. In the West Wing's world, Texas could be less republican and conservative than in real life ( don't forget that it was a democratic stronghold until 1980 ) and California less democrat and liberal ( republican until 1992 ). So, everything is possible, and I think that's even better so.
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anvi
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« Reply #37 on: March 28, 2009, 03:40:37 PM »

I wonder how the 2002 election map would look like if Seth Gillette decided to pull a Nader and run against Bartlet.

How abou we add another layer of suspense on and say that Mark Buckland, the Democratic governor of Indiana, joins the Gillette ticket as the VP nominee?

Gillette in this scenario wins the Dakotas and,  because of the split in the Democratic vote in the region, costs Bartlet Iowa, Missouri and  Arkansas and pushes Minnesota and Wisconsin to the edge, though there is so little support of Ritchie in these states, Bartlet hangs on.  The result.

Bartlet/Hoynes     306
Ritchie/Heston      226
Gillette/Buckland      6

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #38 on: March 28, 2009, 03:46:57 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2009, 04:39:23 AM by Antonio V »

I wonder how the 2002 election map would look like if Seth Gillette decided to pull a Nader and run against Bartlet.

How abou we add another layer of suspense on and say that Mark Buckland, the Democratic governor of Indiana, joins the Gillette ticket as the VP nominee?

Gillette in this scenario wins the Dakotas and,  because of the split in the Democratic vote in the region, costs Bartlet Iowa, Missouri and  Arkansas and pushes Minnesota and Wisconsin to the edge, though there is so little support of Ritchie in these states, Bartlet hangs on.  The result.

Bartlet/Hoynes     306
Ritchie/Heston      226
Gillette/Buckland      6



Do you really think that Gillette could win the Dakotas when, Anderson or Perot won no states though getting more than 10% of the votes ? Huh
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Hash
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« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2009, 06:16:40 PM »

La Follette won Wisconsin in 1924.
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anvi
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« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2009, 08:30:05 PM »

[Do you really think that Gillette could win the Dakotas when La Follette, Anderson or Perot won no states though getting more than 10% of the votes ? Huh

Well, the show had Bartlet winning the Dakotas in 2002 (which I think is pretty outlandish and I don't have that result in my maps).
But entertaining the scenario, if North Dakotans had elected Gillette to the Senate, they might vote for him as president (I think
if Byron Dorgan or Kent Conrad made a run for the presidency, Dakotans would get fairly excited about it.)  And the total national
vote doesn't necessarily reflect a candidate's electoral vote total. especially with small states; Gillette might only play in the Dakotas
and a little bit in other midwester states and still pick off a few electoral votes there.  But, I could easily be wrong about all that.  I
don't think even a big Bartlet solo landslide in 2002 gets him the Dakotas, contrary to what's in the show.  In the show, Bartlet
only got about 55% of the popular vote, and Johnson had to get practically 60% in '64 to bag the Dakotas.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2009, 04:46:56 AM »

[Do you really think that Gillette could win the Dakotas when La Follette, Anderson or Perot won no states though getting more than 10% of the votes ? Huh

Well, the show had Bartlet winning the Dakotas in 2002 (which I think is pretty outlandish and I don't have that result in my maps).
But entertaining the scenario, if North Dakotans had elected Gillette to the Senate, they might vote for him as president (I think
if Byron Dorgan or Kent Conrad made a run for the presidency, Dakotans would get fairly excited about it.)  And the total national
vote doesn't necessarily reflect a candidate's electoral vote total. especially with small states; Gillette might only play in the Dakotas
and a little bit in other midwester states and still pick off a few electoral votes there.  But, I could easily be wrong about all that.  I
don't think even a big Bartlet solo landslide in 2002 gets him the Dakotas, contrary to what's in the show.  In the show, Bartlet
only got about 55% of the popular vote, and Johnson had to get practically 60% in '64 to bag the Dakotas.

With 8 more points ( 57/42 ) Obama could have won Dakotas : with a more favorable EV structure, that would not be impossible for Bartlet.
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defe07
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« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2009, 04:46:40 PM »

I remember that Gillette wanted to run against Bartlet in the Democratic primary. What if he does so and runs until the convention? You know, if he campaigns in the primaries and then at the convention he says he's running third party?
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #43 on: December 08, 2012, 06:42:18 AM »

Well, we should take a look that Bartlett legalized the situation of many latinos, by that reason, many states in the south would became kind of swing states. A huge latino turn-out could give Matt Santos the edge to victory in Texas. After all, Obama lost by only a 9% margin in a solid republican state in 2008.


California is a very strange situation but it seems that it doesn't have changed its mind since the Reagan years. Bartlett wasn't a Bill Clinton to change this....
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #44 on: January 12, 2019, 12:42:39 AM »

Bartlett- 412 EVs (55%)
Ritchie- 126 EVs (43%)



Santos- 285 (49%)
Vinnick- 253 (49%)

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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #45 on: January 12, 2019, 03:42:56 AM »

Bartlett- 412 EVs (55%)
Ritchie- 126 EVs (43%)



Santos- 285 (49%)
Vinnick- 253 (49%)




Remember this is 2002, and 2006. In 2006, for example, Virginia was still a Republican State(Jim Webb barely won despite having Allen make gaffe after gaffe and 06 being a huge wave) and if a Republican won the Presidential Election they certainly win VA(this was true even in 2012 let alone in 2006). In 2006 a Republican also probably would need Colorado to win the election as well


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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #46 on: January 12, 2019, 03:53:11 AM »

I would say this:

2002:



Barlett/Hoynes 421
Ritche/Hentson 117


2006:



Santos/McGarry 280
Vincik/Sullivian 258
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #47 on: January 12, 2019, 05:28:23 AM »

Here is Santos-Hafley 2010

Hafley was a Congressman from Washington on the show, and though Santos is barely able to keep Washington, Hafley carries Oregon and also barely swings Colorado.

Santos 286
Hafley 252



I don't think that Haffley would have much of a shot at winning the Republican nomination after he had lost the Republican majority and his speakership in the 2006 congressional election.

As it was already mentioned, Ray Sullivan was considered the frontrunner for 2010. Or what about former Acting President Walken?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #48 on: September 24, 2021, 08:52:23 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2021, 01:07:28 AM by Anaphoric-Statism »

2002

President Josiah Bartlet (D-NH) / Vice President John Hoynes (D-TX) ✓
Governor Robert Ritchie (R-FL) / Senator Jeff Heston (R-TX)

2006

Congressman Matthew Santos (D-TX) / Fmr. Secretary of Labor Leo McGarry (D-IL) ✓
Senator Arnold Vinick (R-CA) / Governor Ray Sullivan (R-WV)
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PRESIDENT STANTON
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« Reply #49 on: September 27, 2021, 05:15:27 AM »

Jed Bartlet refers to how he wins the Dakota's on election night, and Louisiana goes his way too! Remember to scene when Toby Ziegler informed Bartlet he & Andrea were expecting children! Sam Searborn tells the President he's running for Congress from California's 47th! Indiana would have gone for Bartlet-Hoynes too, due to Bartlet's connection with Notre Dame! The Santos-Vinick map is revealed on night Leo McGarry dies!
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