Will there ever be another president with non-consecutive terms?

[pragmatic liberal]

I wonder if that advent of the 22nd Amendment has made non-consecutive terms more unlikely. A president elected to a second but non-consecutive term would be a lame duck throughout his/her entire 2nd presidency. OTOH, that's true of anyone being elected to a second term.

So could it happen again? I could only see it happening if the candidate/former president seeking a second, non-consecutive term is under 70 and lost reelection by only a narrow margin (or winning the popular vote but losing the EC).

Alternately, if you have a vice president succeed to the presidency (but for less than 2 years), then that person, if they lose their own, first election bid, could run for 2 full terms later on.

I think the last time the idea was floated was in 1980, when Gerald Ford did briefly consider a stop-Reagan candidacy.

Other than that, who was eligible? Truman (excluded from the 22nd amendment) was old and unpopular in 1956, Johnson was in ill health and a ruined man in 1972, Carter and George H.W. Bush had both been heavily repudiated.

Maybe George W. Bush would have run for a second term in 2008 if he had lost reelection in 2004?

[Хahar 🤔]

It's possible, but I don't think 1980 will be repeated for many years to come.

[The Hack Hater]

Too damn hard to answer. The problem is, there is this common perception that of a president quits, he should stay retired. The only reason Grover Cleveland won in 1892 was probably because his loss had been so close last time. So we would likely have to have another close loss where the losing candidate isn't entirely hated.

[HappyWarrior]

Al Gore can be elected again;)  Hopefully this time the will of the American people is accepted lol

[specific_name]

No I think the 22nd renders that possibility politically null, any president elected to a non consecutive second term would be unable to do anything. No one would try it, unless there was a very peculiar circumstance.

If a one term president were to ever become VP and then succeed upon death/resignation of the president, that might be the only way. Of course that's not likely because usually one term presidents have too many negatives to be put on the ticket, plus they're typically too old. Maybe 20 years down the line such a thing could happen.

[Erc]

The most likely scenario plays out something like this:

The current President dies / resigns / is removed from office after the primary season near the end of his 8 years in office.  His VP, who, for some reason, had not sought the nomination (or was defeated for it) assumes the Presidency, proves to be a popular figure, but cannot run for re-election at this point.  The candidate of his party is defeated, but, having proved popular in his 10-ish months in office, is nominated four years later and defeats the now-incumbent President.

Although that second campaign would be quite interesting, with both candidates being referred to as "Mr. President," etc.

As others have mentioned, there's always the possibility of a Ford-like scenario (with Nixon resigning in 1975)...the incumbent President, having served less than 2 years in office, is defeated for re-election narrowly, is re-nominated 4 years later and wins that time around.  It's rather unlikely that the party involved would give the guy a second chance (especially if it's  a Republican), though it is possible.

It's unlikely that a regularly elected President would be renominated, for the reasons stated above---there's an expectation that the President should leave politics, why give a loser a second chance, and, even if he were re-elected, he'd be a lame duck.  It's a possibility, though, if the former President in question were extremely popular amongst members of his own party, and his successor had proven to be a disaster (imagine a younger Reagan losing to Gary Hart in 1984, followed by a Monkey Business-filled Hart Presidency, or the 2000 election occurring in 2004 [an extremely narrow loss by Gore for his re-election]).

A more bizarre scenario is the "former President is picked for VP, then becomes President again after a death/resignation."  This quite nearly did happen in real life, with Ford.  Ford was nearly chosen as Reagan's VP (the deal fell apart at the last moment).  Imagine that had happened, and Reagan had been assassinated by Hinckley in 1981.  Ford would then have become President again, and, interestingly enough, could have run for re-election in 1984 (Ford, having never been elected President in the first place, would not have been affected by the 22nd Amendment, and could have served over 10 years in office).
The sequence of events that would cause a repeat of that scenario are quite unlikely, however (President dying / resigning, VP loses re-election, VP so un-notable to be considered for the VP  slot again, wins election as VP, next President dies/resigns).



Likelihood of any of these happening within our lifetimes?  Less than 1 in 10, at best.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think political shelf-life is much much shorter.

The idea of an incumbent president being defeated, then re-elected is something most people would consider near impossible. It's hard enough for a recently defeated challenger (no matter how close) to gain any real traction.

[The Hack Hater]

When you take into account how polarized the US has tended to become after recent presidential elections, certainly. We'd have to feel the defeated incumbent was doing a somewhat good job before we'd give him another chance, and I doubt there'd be a big enough percentage of the recently-seated party's electorate willing to vote for the former president, even if the incumbent in office at the time managed to somehow screw up, look at Bush's approval among Republicans if you don't believe me.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I doubt it, but it could happen.

[Verily]

Here's a possible scenario:

A popular incumbent President is running for re-election and their spouse becomes gravely ill. The incumbent President chooses to abandon a run for re-election to spend time with their spouse. The spouse dies a year later, and then the former President runs again, either four or eight years afterward.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One possible scenario is a President governs as a centrist and is fairly popular but not with the party base. They receive a primary challenger from the extreme, and lose the primary. That challenger now nominee goes on to lose the general election big time. The former President then returns in 4 years and wins the nomination talking about how centrism is what wins, and then defeats the new incumbent.

[J. J.]

Quite possible.  Imagine Ike dying in 1959 and Nixon losing to JFK in 1960, and then runing in 1968.

[Nym90]

The most likely scenario plays out something like this:

The current President dies / resigns / is removed from office after the primary season near the end of his 8 years in office.  His VP, who, for some reason, had not sought the nomination (or was defeated for it) assumes the Presidency, proves to be a popular figure, but cannot run for re-election at this point.  The candidate of his party is defeated, but, having proved popular in his 10-ish months in office, is nominated four years later and defeats the now-incumbent President.

Although that second campaign would be quite interesting, with both candidates being referred to as "Mr. President," etc.

As others have mentioned, there's always the possibility of a Ford-like scenario (with Nixon resigning in 1975)...the incumbent President, having served less than 2 years in office, is defeated for re-election narrowly, is re-nominated 4 years later and wins that time around.  It's rather unlikely that the party involved would give the guy a second chance (especially if it's  a Republican), though it is possible.

It's unlikely that a regularly elected President would be renominated, for the reasons stated above---there's an expectation that the President should leave politics, why give a loser a second chance, and, even if he were re-elected, he'd be a lame duck.  It's a possibility, though, if the former President in question were extremely popular amongst members of his own party, and his successor had proven to be a disaster (imagine a younger Reagan losing to Gary Hart in 1984, followed by a Monkey Business-filled Hart Presidency, or the 2000 election occurring in 2004 [an extremely narrow loss by Gore for his re-election]).

A more bizarre scenario is the "former President is picked for VP, then becomes President again after a death/resignation."  This quite nearly did happen in real life, with Ford.  Ford was nearly chosen as Reagan's VP (the deal fell apart at the last moment).  Imagine that had happened, and Reagan had been assassinated by Hinckley in 1981.  Ford would then have become President again, and, interestingly enough, could have run for re-election in 1984 (Ford, having never been elected President in the first place, would not have been affected by the 22nd Amendment, and could have served over 10 years in office).
The sequence of events that would cause a repeat of that scenario are quite unlikely, however (President dying / resigning, VP loses re-election, VP so un-notable to be considered for the VP  slot again, wins election as VP, next President dies/resigns).



Likelihood of any of these happening within our lifetimes?  Less than 1 in 10, at best.

Interesting that you bring up the possibility of Ford serving for more than 10 years. This would seem to be a real loophole in the Constitution, actually.

One way that a person could serve limitless numbers of terms would be to be elected President, serve one term, then instead of running for reelection, run for Vice President in the next election instead. If the ticket wins, then the new President resigns on day one and the VP and former President becomes President again. They could just keep repeating this trick every single election with a different candidate on the top of the ticket each time.

[pbrower2a]

Possible scenario:

The incumbent President believes that he has nothing left to achieve after three years, and decides not to run before the primary election. His successor mucks things up badly, and after four or eight years, he decides to run again -- and wins.

Possible, and strange. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

It happenned in 1992 and it could easily have happened in 2004. There is no reason to think it couldn't happen if we have a bad president.