2024 British Columbia general election - Oct 19th, 2024

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

When I say the NDP has made inroads in the Fraser valley - I mean that up until very recently it was a total dead zone for them (apart from Maple Ridge/Mission) but now that so many subdivisions with cheap housing and popping up in Langley and Abbotsford - the NDP has become more competitive as those areas are now less exurban and more suburban - whether those inroads hold this year is another question.

That's certainly true of Langley City, but much less true of Langley Township, Chilliwack or Abbotsford. Downtown Abbotsford and Chilliwack are generally regarded as becoming more favorable to the NDP, but that's really about it.

[adma]

When I say the NDP has made inroads in the Fraser valley - I mean that up until very recently it was a total dead zone for them (apart from Maple Ridge/Mission) but now that so many subdivisions with cheap housing and popping up in Langley and Abbotsford - the NDP has become more competitive as those areas are now less exurban and more suburban - whether those inroads hold this year is another question.

That's certainly true of Langley City, but much less true of Langley Township, Chilliwack or Abbotsford. Downtown Abbotsford and Chilliwack are generally regarded as becoming more favorable to the NDP, but that's really about it.

Even so, those "downtowns" are large and getting larger; and for all the symbolic economic clout agriculture wields in the Fraser Valley, it's increasingly *electorally* marginal--which is the nature of the limited-manpower agricultural beast; all those square miles dedicated to "growing stuff", not to housing people.

Another thing to bear in mind is how the demographic diversity we associate w/Surrey has inched its way up the Fraser Valley; for instance, Abbotsford is over 1/4 Sikh.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

New Mainstreet poll is inline with the Research Co. Poll but they won't make any details available to non subscribers. (Damn capitalists.)

New Leger Poll has pretty much the exact same numbers as both Mainstreet and Research Co, but the regional subsamples are 'interesting.'

I assume here that 'Fraser Valley' is included in Metro Vancouver.

Metro Vancouver
NDP 43%
Con 46%
Green 10%

Vancouver Island
NDP 52%
Con 30%
Green 14%

Rest (I assume the interior and North)
NDP 41%
Con 42%
Green 13%

If this were the actual result, it would likely mean significant gains for the Conservatives (with giving them the B.C United 2020 ridings) in Metro Vancouver but somewhat significant gains for the NDP in the Interior and North.

Definitely a reason to recognize that the regional sub samples have small sample sizes and need to not be regarded as gospel.

[LabourJersey]

Does anyone has a good explainer or article that discusses why the BC Liberals have been so ideologically removed from their Federal Counterparts?

I find it so interesting - obviously in the US you have state parties be very distinct from national parties, but that has larger gone away, especially in the most populated states (and BC is a very populous province).

[adma]

Does anyone has a good explainer or article that discusses why the BC Liberals have been so ideologically removed from their Federal Counterparts?

I find it so interesting - obviously in the US you have state parties be very distinct from national parties, but that has larger gone away, especially in the most populated states (and BC is a very populous province).

Simple.  When the Socreds collapsed in the 90s, the BC Liberals--having made their breakthrough in '91--defaulted into the "anti-socialist-hordes" big tent.  In effect, the Socreds became to the BC Liberals what BC United has presently become to the BC Conservatives.

[King of Kensington]

BC long had an Australian-style partisan divide and the Liberals were like Australian Liberals.

[King of Kensington]

Why are these bozo eruptions not hurting the Conservatives at all?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Why are these bozo eruptions not hurting the Conservatives at all?

I thought about this as well. First, it could be too soon, and the only polls so far are the daily Mainstreet Tracking polls which should probably not be taken too seriously.

However, to the degree that it is correct, my theory is that governments, outside of a one party province like Saskatchewan, start off with so much political capital (otherwise called 'goodwill') and use up that capital during their time in government annoying various voter group constituencies.

Unlike in the old days when parties would remake their coalition constituencies while in government, not too many voters seem to shift to the governing side anymore.

So, people who want change in British Columbia are willing to take a risk on the Conservatives, no matter how loony and extreme it is.

Of course, it's just my theory at this point, and these 'bozo eruptions' are very likely to have some impact at least on the bozo candidate, which is something that province wide polling doesn't really pick up.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

The registration deadline for candidates has passed. While the Green Party had lined up around 80 candidates for the 93 ridings, in the end they registered only 69 candidates.

This is a pretty poor showing by the Green Party and Sonia Furstenau. The NDP even stuck to the fixed election date so it wasn't like they were caught by surprise. There are a fairly large number of independents running, but there are 10 ridings where the election is a two way race between the NDP and the B.C Conservatives.

1.North Coast- Haida Gwaii
2.Cariboo-Chilcotin
3.Abbotsford-Mission
4.Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
5.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
6.Surrey South
7.Delta South
8.Burnaby Centre
9.Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
10.North Vancouver-Lonsdale

[King of Kensington]

Why are these bozo eruptions not hurting the Conservatives at all?

I thought about this as well. First, it could be too soon, and the only polls so far are the daily Mainstreet Tracking polls which should probably not be taken too seriously.

However, to the degree that it is correct, my theory is that governments, outside of a one party province like Saskatchewan, start off with so much political capital (otherwise called 'goodwill') and use up that capital during their time in government annoying various voter group constituencies.

Unlike in the old days when parties would remake their coalition constituencies while in government, not too many voters seem to shift to the governing side anymore.

So, people who want change in British Columbia are willing to take a risk on the Conservatives, no matter how loony and extreme it is.

Of course, it's just my theory at this point, and these 'bozo eruptions' are very likely to have some impact at least on the bozo candidate, which is something that province wide polling doesn't really pick up.

"Owning the libs" is a thing even for more mainstream, respectable conservatives nowadays.  Their attitude seems to be sure these "force us to eat bugs" and "hair dryers cure COVID" comments are kind of stupid, but hey - it really drives the NDP up the wall so good on them.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Why are these bozo eruptions not hurting the Conservatives at all?

I thought about this as well. First, it could be too soon, and the only polls so far are the daily Mainstreet Tracking polls which should probably not be taken too seriously.

However, to the degree that it is correct, my theory is that governments, outside of a one party province like Saskatchewan, start off with so much political capital (otherwise called 'goodwill') and use up that capital during their time in government annoying various voter group constituencies.

Unlike in the old days when parties would remake their coalition constituencies while in government, not too many voters seem to shift to the governing side anymore.

So, people who want change in British Columbia are willing to take a risk on the Conservatives, no matter how loony and extreme it is.

Of course, it's just my theory at this point, and these 'bozo eruptions' are very likely to have some impact at least on the bozo candidate, which is something that province wide polling doesn't really pick up.

"Owning the libs" is a thing even for more mainstream, respectable conservatives nowadays.  Their attitude seems to be sure these "force us to eat bugs" and "hair dryers cure COVID" comments are kind of stupid, but hey - it really drives the NDP up the wall so good on them.

The choice these mainstream Conservatives have to make though is in recognizing that a Premier John Rustad might very well pander to these 'they force us to eat bugs' voters.'

For instance, we saw in Florida DeSantis trying to ban lab grown meat and states banning the wearing of face masks. So, these things can have real consequences.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of Alberta's "mainstream conservatives" were satisfied with any concerns about antivaxxers when Danielle Smith's said "it was a tough time for all of us, let's just move on" talk in the debate.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

A lot of Alberta's "mainstream conservatives" were satisfied with any concerns about antivaxxers when Danielle Smith's said "it was a tough time for all of us, let's just move on" talk in the debate.

1.I think Alberta is still a lot more right wing than British Columbia.

2.A good deal of the support for both the B.C Conservatives and the United Conservatives is opposition to the Federal Liberals. Despite what I said previously, if the Federal Liberals were not in power, I don't think the B.C election would be as close as it appears to be.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

BC United will be running some candidates (perhaps paper candidates?) after all.

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1832106513391088069

Unless this intention was previously stated and I missed it, this absolutely looks like the party belatedly realized it was at risk of being automatically disbanded if they didn’t run candidates so now they’re saving face.

This whole fiasco, from the renaming to the dropping out, is one of the most hilariously incompetent ways I’ve seen a party die.

[King of Kensington]

A lot of Alberta's "mainstream conservatives" were satisfied with any concerns about antivaxxers when Danielle Smith's said "it was a tough time for all of us, let's just move on" talk in the debate.

1.I think Alberta is still a lot more right wing than British Columbia.

2.A good deal of the support for both the B.C Conservatives and the United Conservatives is opposition to the Federal Liberals. Despite what I said previously, if the Federal Liberals were not in power, I don't think the B.C election would be as close as it appears to be.

Agree with that. Only in Alberta and Saskatchewan do right of center parties consistently received over 50% of the vote.

[adma]

A lot of Alberta's "mainstream conservatives" were satisfied with any concerns about antivaxxers when Danielle Smith's said "it was a tough time for all of us, let's just move on" talk in the debate.

1.I think Alberta is still a lot more right wing than British Columbia.

2.A good deal of the support for both the B.C Conservatives and the United Conservatives is opposition to the Federal Liberals. Despite what I said previously, if the Federal Liberals were not in power, I don't think the B.C election would be as close as it appears to be.

Agree with that. Only in Alberta and Saskatchewan do right of center parties consistently received over 50% of the vote.

Yeah, in Alberta, we weren't just dealing w/a "natural governing party", we were dealing with a *literal* governing party.  Whereas in BC, we're dealing with until-lately ragtag rejects that have presently been MacGyvered into a anti-NDP big tent.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

I actually think this helps the NDP though. This is officially an NDP/Con race now and a very tight one at that, so all the attention will be on that head to head matchup, and I just don't think rustad is a good enough leader to win that against Eby.

Well I was wrong about that...the NDP seems to be trying the Eby vs Rustad head-to-head as their go-to strategy, but far from widening the lead, it's a virtual tie now. It will be interesting to see how these next two weeks go.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually think this helps the NDP though. This is officially an NDP/Con race now and a very tight one at that, so all the attention will be on that head to head matchup, and I just don't think rustad is a good enough leader to win that against Eby.

Well I was wrong about that...the NDP seems to be trying the Eby vs Rustad head-to-head as their go-to strategy, but far from widening the lead, it's a virtual tie now. It will be interesting to see how these next two weeks go.

Well it's not like they are chasing a fantasy.  Eby leads in literally every positive leadership quality question in this poll, never mind a 8-point preferred FM lead. However,  the same poll is NDP+1.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1842280648473817369?t=9lKwpC2JBvTrgIz...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1842277790042763577?t=4r7eqq64JZgjpRs...

With some of those positive responses obviously coming from Green voters, the tactic must be to squeeze them in a favorable manner between the two leadership candidates.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

I actually think this helps the NDP though. This is officially an NDP/Con race now and a very tight one at that, so all the attention will be on that head to head matchup, and I just don't think rustad is a good enough leader to win that against Eby.

Well I was wrong about that...the NDP seems to be trying the Eby vs Rustad head-to-head as their go-to strategy, but far from widening the lead, it's a virtual tie now. It will be interesting to see how these next two weeks go.

Well it's not like they are chasing a fantasy.  Eby leads in literally every positive leadership quality question in this poll, never mind a 8-point preferred FM lead. However,  the same poll is NDP+1.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1842280648473817369?t=9lKwpC2JBvTrgIz...
https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1842277790042763577?t=4r7eqq64JZgjpRs...
With some of those positive responses obviously coming from Green voters, the tactic must be to squeeze them in a favorable manner between the two leadership candidates.

Yeah of course it's too early to say it won't work, especially because there's just so many unknowns about the BC Conservative Party.

[Estrella]

I wonder if there’s some Green ➔ Conservative switching going on. Green parties have always had a component of cranks and in other countries we’ve seen that boomer hippies or vegan/tarot/astrology types had their brains melted by the pandemic and became standard far-right conspiracy theorists. Ironically these revelations about Rustad could end up helping him.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if there’s some Green ➔ Conservative switching going on. Green parties have always had a component of cranks and in other countries we’ve seen that boomer hippies or vegan/tarot/astrology types had their brains melted by the pandemic and became standard far-right conspiracy theorists. Ironically these revelations about Rustad could end up helping him.

There are very few Green-Conservative swing voters. 

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder if there’s some Green ➔ Conservative switching going on. Green parties have always had a component of cranks and in other countries we’ve seen that boomer hippies or vegan/tarot/astrology types had their brains melted by the pandemic and became standard far-right conspiracy theorists. Ironically these revelations about Rustad could end up helping him.

There are very few Green-Conservative swing voters. 

You say that, and it makes sense rationally, but statistically looking at where they are polling right now relative to the past two elections does suggest there will be some. And we shouldn't think too hard about why: the Greens are the Third option (at least in the seats without previous Con candidates). If you disliked the NDP or Libs in the past, but couldn't bring yourself to go all the way in the other direction from past behavior, you'll look for alternatives and the Greens are usually going to be the only place to chuck away a vote. This isn't to say the Greens don't have a base of loyal Left supporters of course.

However, I do think this is something to keep an eye out for on election night. Like the Libertarians in 2016 US, the Greens and ex-BCLib aligned Indies I could see doing relatively well in Vancouver, Richmond, and certain other areas where the former BCLib voter doesn't like either of the present options.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

According to the prior Research Co poll (Mario Canseco) of those who voted for the Green Party in 2020, 43% plan to vote for the Green Party this time, 41% for the Conservatives and 14% for the NDP. Around 15% of voters voted for the Green Party in 2020.

I think that is correct that a certain percentage of Green Party voters are protest voters and they've found a better vehicle with the Conservatives for their protest. We saw the same thing with the swing from the Green Party to the PPC Federally in 2021.

That said, I expect the vast majority of remaining Green Party voters for this election are on the left and would be far more likely to vote NDP. This is especially relevant in the 24 ridings where the Green Party don't have a candidate and if the NDP is able to greater polarize the electorate to create a two party race.

The latest Research Co Poll is interesting, but again, very small sample sizes for the regions. The 27% Conservative Party lead in Fraser Valley has collapsed and now every region (Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley/Greater Vancouver, North, Southern Interior, Vancouver Island) is within 5% except for the North where the Conservatives have an 11% lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt 4 in ten Green voters are going Conservative this time, but I acknowledge that it's not an insignificant number. What I was alluding to before was people's current second choice. Very few people planning on voting Green have the Conservatives as their second choice and vice versa. So yeah, that 2020 Green protest vote has withered away and what they're left with is their left leaning base.

[King of Kensington]

Leger poll has the NDP ahead 47-42

https://x.com/CanadianPolling/status/1843749006855336168