Who would have won the NH primary and NV caucus if Sanders didn’t run?

[darklordoftech]

What do you think?

[WalterWhite]

Elizabeth Warren, the second-most prominent progressive in the 2020 Democratic Primary, probably would have won those states. I cannot see the Sanders vote going to anyone else.

[Sol]

Elizabeth Warren, the second-most prominent progressive in the 2020 Democratic Primary, probably would have won those states. I cannot see the Sanders vote going to anyone else.

Ehh, I don't know about that; from what I remember of the time there was a non-negligible chunk of Bernie voters whose second preference was Biden. Nevada could easily have been a Biden win.

[WalterWhite]

Elizabeth Warren, the second-most prominent progressive in the 2020 Democratic Primary, probably would have won those states. I cannot see the Sanders vote going to anyone else.

Ehh, I don't know about that; from what I remember of the time there was a non-negligible chunk of Bernie voters whose second preference was Biden. Nevada could easily have been a Biden win.

That was probably because Sanders and Warren attacked each other viciously during campaign season. In the absence of that, Sanders supporters would probably choose the progressive Warren over the centrist Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Elizabeth Warren, the second-most prominent progressive in the 2020 Democratic Primary, probably would have won those states. I cannot see the Sanders vote going to anyone else.

Ehh, I don't know about that; from what I remember of the time there was a non-negligible chunk of Bernie voters whose second preference was Biden. Nevada could easily have been a Biden win.

That was probably because Sanders and Warren attacked each other viciously during campaign season. In the absence of that, Sanders supporters would probably choose the progressive Warren over the centrist Biden.

Some probably would. But the nihilist crowd who wanted to see everything burn would probably find Warren too timid and establishment-flavored.

[Mr. Smith]

NH:  Either Buttjudge or Warren

NV: Biden

[Sol]

That was probably because Sanders and Warren attacked each other viciously during campaign season. In the absence of that, Sanders supporters would probably choose the progressive Warren over the centrist Biden.

I think you're making the mistake of assuming that Sanders supporters were all ideologically committed lefties who would default to the most left-wing candidate. A good chunk of them were but Bernie also won lots of people who were not as strongly ideological through strong outreach (especially in immigrant and non-English speaking communities), his personal likeability, his anti-establishment ethos, name recognition, etc.

Warren had very poor outreach to non-white voters and ran a campaign designed to appeal to PhDs , which undercuts the anti-establishment elements of her campaign as well. I personally find Warren to be charismatic, but I'm much more her target demo than the typical Sanders voter.

[SWE]

Elizabeth Warren, the second-most prominent progressive in the 2020 Democratic Primary, probably would have won those states. I cannot see the Sanders vote going to anyone else.

Ehh, I don't know about that; from what I remember of the time there was a non-negligible chunk of Bernie voters whose second preference was Biden. Nevada could easily have been a Biden win.

That was probably because Sanders and Warren attacked each other viciously during campaign season. In the absence of that, Sanders supporters would probably choose the progressive Warren over the centrist Biden.

No, polling usually showed Sanders voters tended to indicate Biden as their second choice (and vice versa) from the beginning, long before things were anything other than friendly between Bernie and Warren

[SInNYC]

On a political blog, people are obviously going to be picking by ideology (so, Warren).

But voters, especially in primaries (vs caucuses), often have other reasons including identity and likeability. Those who go for identity will pick another old straight white male (Biden). For likeability, the usual criterion is the beer test though I'm not sure that really applies to Bernie voters. But many liked his authenticity, and again I think Biden was perceived as the most authentic candidate of those that remained, with Warren second.

[Electric Circus]

1. What does this imply about Iowa?

We can assume that Warren does somewhat better in Sanders absence, not just because she would pick up a disproportionate share of his support, but also because without him in the race, she's spared the series of embarrassing squabbles that the two had over the winter.

Sol's point about less ideological Sanders supporters is well taken, but there's also organizational talent that would have swung toward Warren in his absence, which would have helped with turning out less ideological voters. In any case, Warren had a strong ground game in Iowa and the state has demographics that minimize some of her vulnerabilities.

All of which is to say, I think it's highly likely that Warren overcomes Buttigieg's 2.8% margin over her and wins Iowa - unambiguously.

Buttigieg doesn't get to claim a tie, and exits Iowa looking less viable. Joe Biden probably still disappoints. Turnout is lower in the absence of Bernie's operation.


2. How does that affect the relative position of candidates going into New Hampshire?

This leaves voters in New Hampshire with just a handful of real options. No one has mentioned Amy Klobuchar yet, but she might reap more benefit from being the last lower-risk choice standing as an alternative to a seemingly lethargic Biden. She might also benefit from being a more compelling foil to Warren.

We know that Warren is vulnerable to overreach and self-sabotage in moments of strength. And we know what the dynamic in New Hampshire is like. It's hard to imagine her making a smooth transition from winning Iowa. I think that Klobuchar would have a huge opportunity.


3. Where does this leave the rest of the campaign?

Warren probably wins Nevada, but I can see the case for Biden doing marginally better there as well.

Biden still dominates South Carolina, but Warren and Klobuchar make the delegate math on Super Tuesday more interesting with a thinner field.

["Sniff" (D.O.B.: 03/25/1917)]

There's a non-zero possibility this could have meant Beto stayed in the race for longer. Whether that would have meant anything, I don't know.

[RI]

If Sanders doesn't run, there's never an impetus to consolidate around a candidate to stop him. I honestly don't think Biden is nominated in this scenario, but either Klobuchar or Buttigieg.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm also inclined to think that someone else would fill a sort of left-populist bent (as opposed to the wonkier Warren campaign whose supporters were much more like Buttigieg's than Sanders'). Maybe it would be Yang, maybe it would be someone who didn't run IOTL like Ro Khanna or Sherrod Brown.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm also inclined to think that someone else would fill a sort of left-populist bent (as opposed to the wonkier Warren campaign whose supporters were much more like Buttigieg's than Sanders'). Maybe it would be Yang, maybe it would be someone who didn't run IOTL like Ro Khanna or Sherrod Brown.

There's no way Sherrod Brown was ever going to give up his seat for DeWine to fill with a Republican. If he leaves the Senate, it's going to be via losing reelection.