Miami-Dade County Democratic Voter Registration Edge drop, R's now within 75K (Update; P3)

[GAinDC]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

I agree with this. Florida’s political shifts are pretty directly corresponded to the politics of older voters. For example, the state moved left when the greatest and silent generations (FDR democrats) reached retirement age. Now that boomers are replacing them, it makes sense that the state is moving right.

The wildcard of course is the rightward shift of Latinos, but in Florida that seems more like a reversion to the mean than a realignment.

[sul]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

DeSantis is actually effective at using power to bring upon change but is just terrible at initially campaigning for it . Just see how much he struggled vs Gillum in 2018(it was as bad as this campaign) vs his actual term and you can see he’s far more effective in office than on the trial .

I do wonder what would've happened had rick scott + desantis lost in 2018.

[Devils30]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

I agree with this. Florida’s political shifts are pretty directly corresponded to the politics of older voters. For example, the state moved left when the greatest and silent generations (FDR democrats) reached retirement age. Now that boomers are replacing them, it makes sense that the state is moving right.

The wildcard of course is the rightward shift of Latinos, but in Florida that seems more like a reversion to the mean than a realignment.

This is an interesting but possibly very valid take. FL should stay red for the next decade (or two). But when millennials begin to retire around 2048, do wealthier, educated places like Naples, Sarasota start voting blue? A lot of things will change in American politics over the years of course that can completely alter everything.

[GAinDC]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

I agree with this. Florida’s political shifts are pretty directly corresponded to the politics of older voters. For example, the state moved left when the greatest and silent generations (FDR democrats) reached retirement age. Now that boomers are replacing them, it makes sense that the state is moving right.

The wildcard of course is the rightward shift of Latinos, but in Florida that seems more like a reversion to the mean than a realignment.

This is an interesting but possibly very valid take. FL should stay red for the next decade (or two). But when millennials begin to retire around 2048, do wealthier, educated places like Naples, Sarasota start voting blue? A lot of things will change in American politics over the years of course that can completely alter everything.

It’s possible! That’s why I don’t think Democrats should write off FL completely. The state is so large and diverse that multiple political trends can happen all at once and quickly. If Florida’s rightward lurch is due to the influence of Boomer retirees and the personal brand of politicians like DeSantis and Trump, then we could expect this trend to reverse in the next few years.

People forget that the state is also an immigrant gateway, nearly majority-minority, very urban, less religious than the rest of the south, and a longtime destination for LGBTQ individuals — which can give Democrats hope for a comeback.

Dems abandoning Florida despite all of this seems more petty than anything else, and may come back to bite us in the ass.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

I agree with this. Florida’s political shifts are pretty directly corresponded to the politics of older voters. For example, the state moved left when the greatest and silent generations (FDR democrats) reached retirement age. Now that boomers are replacing them, it makes sense that the state is moving right.

The wildcard of course is the rightward shift of Latinos, but in Florida that seems more like a reversion to the mean than a realignment.

This is an interesting but possibly very valid take. FL should stay red for the next decade (or two). But when millennials begin to retire around 2048, do wealthier, educated places like Naples, Sarasota start voting blue? A lot of things will change in American politics over the years of course that can completely alter everything.

It’s possible! That’s why I don’t think Democrats should write off FL completely. The state is so large and diverse that multiple political trends can happen all at once and quickly. If Florida’s rightward lurch is due to the influence of Boomer retirees and the personal brand of politicians like DeSantis and Trump, then we could expect this trend to reverse in the next few years.

People forget that the state is also an immigrant gateway, nearly majority-minority, very urban, less religious than the rest of the south, and a longtime destination for LGBTQ individuals — which can give Democrats hope for a comeback.

Dems abandoning Florida despite all of this seems more petty than anything else, and may come back to bite us in the ass.

The rightward trend of Florida in 2020/2022 was due to COVID restrictions being unpopular and DeSantis touting it as the "freedom" state. They are no longer an issue now, and the new issues defining Florida are abortion, Social Security (keep in mind Rick Scott wrote the 2022 GOP platform of "sunsetting Social Security"), and the insurance crisis.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

I agree with this. Florida’s political shifts are pretty directly corresponded to the politics of older voters. For example, the state moved left when the greatest and silent generations (FDR democrats) reached retirement age. Now that boomers are replacing them, it makes sense that the state is moving right.

The wildcard of course is the rightward shift of Latinos, but in Florida that seems more like a reversion to the mean than a realignment.

This is an interesting but possibly very valid take. FL should stay red for the next decade (or two). But when millennials begin to retire around 2048, do wealthier, educated places like Naples, Sarasota start voting blue? A lot of things will change in American politics over the years of course that can completely alter everything.

It’s possible! That’s why I don’t think Democrats should write off FL completely. The state is so large and diverse that multiple political trends can happen all at once and quickly. If Florida’s rightward lurch is due to the influence of Boomer retirees and the personal brand of politicians like DeSantis and Trump, then we could expect this trend to reverse in the next few years.

People forget that the state is also an immigrant gateway, nearly majority-minority, very urban, less religious than the rest of the south, and a longtime destination for LGBTQ individuals — which can give Democrats hope for a comeback.

Dems abandoning Florida despite all of this seems more petty than anything else, and may come back to bite us in the ass.

The rightward trend of Florida in 2020/2022 was due to COVID restrictions being unpopular and DeSantis touting it as the "freedom" state. They are no longer an issue now, and the new issues defining Florida are abortion, Social Security (keep in mind Rick Scott wrote the 2022 GOP platform of "sunsetting Social Security"), and the insurance crisis.

I think this is somewhat of a fair point, but tbh a lot of Florida's rightwards shift is just because of domestic migration, which is something that only seems to be getting better for the GOP.

[CookieDamage]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

But Democrats are doing great in Fulton County!

In all seriousness, the only thing separating Miami-Dade and Fulton is population, and even then Fulton has over 1 million residents. I'd argue it's more diverse as well.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

But Democrats are doing great in Fulton County!

In all seriousness, the only thing separating Miami-Dade and Fulton is population, and even then Fulton has over 1 million residents. I'd argue it's more diverse as well.

The problem with this is 80% of Fulton's population is either non-hispanic black or African American (domestic) blacks. (Around 40% for each). Miami-Dade on the other hand is less than 30% non-hispanic white or domestic blacks. The other 70% is Latino but my there so much diversity within that. There are Cubans, Colombians, Nicaraguans, and pretty much every other Latino group you can think of. There are also many Haitian Americans (ie hispanic blacks) making it in extremely diverse county. There is also a large Hasidic Jewish population embedded in the community. The only demographic seriously lacking are Asians.

In that regard, I think Fairfax or Harris county are probably better arguments for the most diverse Southern county other than Miami-Dade, especially Harris. Fulton is just too black and white to stand out compared to the rest of the counties in the south.

[Builder Refused]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

Whatever you think of the Cuban regime, the US policy toward it doesn’t work. There’s no point whatsoever in preserving it other than as a CIA grudge. Meanwhile we support governments like the Saudis which are much more inhumane. So other than some tenuous electoral hypothesis, your position is just uninformed and harmful. What we should be doing is taking advantage of Cuba’s anger at its citizens being trafficked by Russia, instead of continuing to be an abusive stepdad that closes them out of the world economy making the socialist government there STRONGER.

[Builder Refused]

Miami-Dade will go R in 2024. Thanks progressives!

Amazing how R’s have twisted the term “progressive” into something of a derogatory smear term in the current polarized climate. Since when did progress become a bad thing?

It's not the term, it's their behavior.

I’m sorry, was it Bernie who was President when we lost thousands of seats in state legislatures across the country? Was he the candidate who lost in 2016? We’re progressives the ones that totally sabotaged the ACA. Was Bernie the one who spread an attack with his opponent in a turban?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think it’s a mistake to assume that Cubans in Miami are an undifferentiated mass of former plantation owners. Hialeah is an incredibly deprived place where people are dependent on government transfers and Cubans aren’t very religious. There’s room for Democrats to appeal to Cubans.

[2016]

Miami-Dade County D-Registration lead shrinks further according to new Numbers from the Florida Division of Elections:

D - 529,220
R - 434,090

D's lead R's by 95,130. R's gained another 4,000 Voters or so.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Miami-Dade County D-Registration lead shrinks further according to new Numbers from the Florida Division of Elections:

D - 529,220
R - 434,090

D's lead R's by 95,130. R's gained another 4,000 Voters or so.

It was 537k to 437k before. So the difference is all from voter purges rather than any actual GOP momentum.

[2016]

Miami-Dade County D-Registration lead shrinks further according to new Numbers from the Florida Division of Elections:

D - 529,220
R - 434,090

D's lead R's by 95,130. R's gained another 4,000 Voters or so.

It was 537k to 437k before. So the difference is all from voter purges rather than any actual GOP momentum.

I am going to ask the same Question to you that I asked to the Uswer Olowakandi aka Bakari Sellers during 2022: When do you finally give up on Florida? It's gone for Democrats.

[2016]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

Democrats should triage Florida . Contesting it basically takes resources away from actual swing states

[2016]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

Democrats should triage Florida . Contesting it basically takes resources away from actual swing states

They can't triage Florida because of the Senate Race especially with Cruz now pulling ahead of Allred by 9 Points (49-40) in TX. FL Senate Race will probably be essential for them to keep control of the Chamber unless they pull off Victories in Montana and Ohio.

But as you say, this is not good for D's. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is from Dade County but she last ran in 2020 and the State has changed massivly since then. Wonder what she is thinking now.

Republican MEGA Donor Ken Griffin who first backed DeSantis then Haley has committed to pump $$$ into Florida Senate, House & Local Races.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

Democrats should triage Florida . Contesting it basically takes resources away from actual swing states

They can't triage Florida because of the Senate Race especially with Cruz now pulling ahead of Allred by 9 Points (49-40) in TX. FL Senate Race will probably be essential for them to keep control of the Chamber unless they pull off Victories in Montana and Ohio.

But as you say, this is not good for D's. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is from Dade County but she last ran in 2020 and the State has changed massivly since then. Wonder what she is thinking now.

Republican MEGA Donor Ken Griffin who first backed DeSantis then Haley has committed to pump $$$ into Florida Senate, House & Local Races.

Yeah Florida is an underrated seat 49 or 50 for Dems. I think because of recent results, investing anything in FL-Sen feels like throwing away money.

What I think Dems get wrong is that just fixing their problems in Miami-Dade are enough to win the state. Even if Biden got Clinton numbers in Miami-Dade, he still would've lost statewide by a simillar margin to Clinton. The biggest thing Dems could probably do to make FL competitive is make massive investments in the I-84 corridor - metro Tampa and Orlando. They underperform demographics pretty big time in both but have some positive shifts going for them especially in Orlando.

Also capitalizing on the leftward shift of greater Jacksonville. Metro Jacksonville counties used to be some of the GOP's biggest vote netters in the state - less so today.

Finally, trying to appeal to Seniors - counties like Lee and Brevard are huge GOP vote netters because of the rightwards lean of Seniors. Don't Dems outright win the Senior vote anytime soon, especially in those counties, but getting the GOP vote net down from 50-60k to 30k could be very powerful.

However, because I haven't really seen Democrats state or federal do anything since 2020 to try and work on their problems in Florida, I think investment now is too little to too for 2024, and Trump is favored to win the state by more than last time. FL-Sen might only be marginally competitive if Dems capitalize on Scott's unpopularity, but that man always finds a way to squeak by.

[2016]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

Democrats should triage Florida . Contesting it basically takes resources away from actual swing states

They can't triage Florida because of the Senate Race especially with Cruz now pulling ahead of Allred by 9 Points (49-40) in TX. FL Senate Race will probably be essential for them to keep control of the Chamber unless they pull off Victories in Montana and Ohio.

But as you say, this is not good for D's. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is from Dade County but she last ran in 2020 and the State has changed massivly since then. Wonder what she is thinking now.

Republican MEGA Donor Ken Griffin who first backed DeSantis then Haley has committed to pump $$$ into Florida Senate, House & Local Races.

Yeah Florida is an underrated seat 49 or 50 for Dems. I think because of recent results, investing anything in FL-Sen feels like throwing away money.

What I think Dems get wrong is that just fixing their problems in Miami-Dade are enough to win the state. Even if Biden got Clinton numbers in Miami-Dade, he still would've lost statewide by a simillar margin to Clinton. The biggest thing Dems could probably do to make FL competitive is make massive investments in the I-84 corridor - metro Tampa and Orlando. They underperform demographics pretty big time in both but have some positive shifts going for them especially in Orlando.

Also capitalizing on the leftward shift of greater Jacksonville. Metro Jacksonville counties used to be some of the GOP's biggest vote netters in the state - less so today.

Finally, trying to appeal to Seniors - counties like Lee and Brevard are huge GOP vote netters because of the rightwards lean of Seniors. Don't Dems outright win the Senior vote anytime soon, especially in those counties, but getting the GOP vote net down from 50-60k to 30k could be very powerful.

However, because I haven't really seen Democrats state or federal do anything since 2020 to try and work on their problems in Florida, I think investment now is too little to too for 2024, and Trump is favored to win the state by more than last time. FL-Sen might only be marginally competitive if Dems capitalize on Scott's unpopularity, but that man always finds a way to squeak by.

As a Democrat to win in Florida the case was always run up the Numbers in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties and then win the Swing Areas in the Tampa, St. Pete and along the I4-Corridor. With this massive shift in South Florida that seems no longer possible.

Consider the Source but the Trump Campaign says that they have for now a Double Digit lead over Biden in the State.

Nonwithstanding as you said correctly that FL is a very expensive State to run in.

[2016]

Yet another bad sign for Democrats that Republicans have closed within 12,000 Registered Voters in Hillsborough County (Tampa)

https://twitter.com/FLPolEnjoyer/status/1753513790165954771

Everything is collapsing for FL D's.

[oldtimer]

Republicans have now pulled within 80,000 Registered Voters in Floridas' most populous County, MIAMI-DADE.

Here are the latest Numbers:

515,552

435,914

490,833

Republicans gaining 5,000 per month or so.

This will be interesting in Congressional Races, Miami is the last holdout of House Democrats in Florida.

[2016]

The Book Closing Report (February 20th) is in for Miami-Dade County ahead of the 2024 Presidential Preference Primary on March 19

https://files.floridados.gov/media/707692/1-by-party-by-county.pdf

512,794

438,931

Democrats lead by 73,836.

Donald Trump is going to win MIAMI-DADE County and a whole lot of other stuff down there as well.