Miami-Dade County Democratic Voter Registration Edge drop, R's now within 75K (Update; P3)

[Red Velvet]

Democrats cannot win FL with those sort of Numbers out of Miami-Dade. Just not possible!

And Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against Scott, may have underestimated how South Florida has shifted before announcing her run.

Def think FL is drifting away from Dems, but I disagree; Dems could theoretically win FL while narrowly losing Miami-Dade even if they got their act together in the other main metros (Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville).

Miami-Dade is "only" like 1/9th of the states population, so a 25 point shift right can be cancelled out by the rest of the state shifting like 3 points left.

The issue for Dems ofc is that they're not seeing the gains in metro Tampa and Orlando that they're seeing in most other growing metros of their size. I think this is for a combination of who's moving into these metros and the state Dem Party just sucking, and it's something that's very unlikely to be "fixed" by 2024.

Uhhh I think you’re innocent if you think the profile of Latinos who go to live in Orlando are different from the ones who go to Miami.

It’s not (just) Miami, it’s Florida as a whole.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Miami-Dade will go R in 2024. Thanks progressives!

[Dave Hedgehog]

Miami-Dade will go R in 2024. Thanks progressives!

Amazing how R’s have twisted the term “progressive” into something of a derogatory smear term in the current polarized climate. Since when did progress become a bad thing?

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Miami-Dade will go R in 2024. Thanks progressives!

Amazing how R’s have twisted the term “progressive” into something of a derogatory smear term in the current polarized climate. Since when did progress become a bad thing?

It's not the term, it's their behavior.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The voter registration in this county is simply catching up to the 2020 results - it doesn't necessarily have to be from anyone flipping, but just people registering with their new party.

If you actually look at the registration statistics in the entire state, Republicans haven't gained any new votes since 2020. Rather, Democrats have been purged off the rolls, since they didn't vote in 2022 (with no competitive races, Senate, Governor, or House) on the ballot. There was absolutely no reason for Democrats to attempt this state when there was no competitive House race at all.

If the voter registration trends continue, I could see Florida being R +15 in 2024. However, I'm very skeptical now that it's going to trend hard right (unlike NY, which I'm more confident will trend right), and I think people are just overextrapolating from 2022.

[oldtimer]

And there's your reason why the Mayor of Miami ran in the republican presidential primary.

[2016]

And there's your reason why the Mayor of Miami ran in the republican presidential primary.

Rumors are that former Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez wants his old Job back so Suarez and Gimenez could potentially swap places soon!

[oldtimer]

And there's your reason why the Mayor of Miami ran in the republican presidential primary.

Rumors are that former Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez wants his old Job back so Suarez and Gimenez could potentially swap places soon!

Suarez is the prime suspect of a Democrat to go Trumpist Republican, so I doubt it.

[Tekken_Guy]

And there's your reason why the Mayor of Miami ran in the republican presidential primary.

Rumors are that former Miami Mayor Carlos Gimenez wants his old Job back so Suarez and Gimenez could potentially swap places soon!

Gimenez was the mayor of Miami-Dade County. Suarez is the mayor of Miami the city. And none of Gimenez's district contains any of the city.

Also, Suarez is too anti-Trump to win a congressional primary at this point.

[Sumner 1868]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

[TodayJunior]

Le sigh. At the least the country as a whole will make up for this mess.

[DS0816]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

The fact that Debbie Wasserman Schultz—the then-DNC chair who presided over the rigging of the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination for Hillary Clinton and against Bernie Sanders (and every person who voted the nomination to Bernie Sanders)—is still in Democratic Party politics and the U.S. House of Representatives … it is sweet this former bellwether state has realigned to the Republican Party.

[🥥🌴]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

The fact that Debbie Wasserman Schultz—the then-DNC chair who presided over the rigging of the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination for Hillary Clinton and against Bernie Sanders (and every person who voted the nomination to Bernie Sanders)—is still in Democratic Party politics and the U.S. House of Representatives … it is sweet this former bellwether state has realigned to the Republican Party.

Agreed

Democrats deserved to lose Florida for once and for all.

Especially if they think the solution to fix the issues is to invade Venezuela or Cuba to win Cuban-Americans back...

Because at that point, GOP or DEM doesn't even matter to me anymore, they would be simply two different shades of the same evil.

Also Cuban Americans will never be left wing because every Cuban who is left wing would not leave the country and think Cuba is a great place. So the ones who leave are naturally going to be anti-left wing (not necessarily right wing, but anti-left wing).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Florida was always going to shift very hard for Republicans, with the Reagan generation entering the retirement pool. The idea there's some magic "outreach" that The Party Just Won't Do is nonsense. If anything, the state would have voted R in every presidential election since 1980 had it not been for the insistence of the GOP between the end of the Cold War and Trump to privatize Social Security.

But go on believing that hot air balloons of complimentary Cuban sandwiches, Castro effigy burnings every Sunday and Spanish-language ad campaigns the size of the Pentagon budget will reverse trends if you must.

Rick Scott literally wrote a proposal to sunset Social Security just last year (contributing to the poor showing of Senate Republicans in 2022), and he scammed Medicare a record amount of money while he was CEO of a company.

DeSantis won big because of his stance against COVID lockdowns (Rubio was just way above replacement as 2016 showed). He is now someone posting neo-Nazi advertisements, a busybody in the education system, and someone who punishes businesses for disagreeing with his views. It doesn't matter if Republicans lead by 4% in voter registration if you're losing hardcore fiscally conservative voters like me.

Also, it's very easy to be to the right of Castro and still be left of center in American politics.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

DeSantis is actually effective at using power to bring upon change but is just terrible at initially campaigning for it . Just see how much he struggled vs Gillum in 2018(it was as bad as this campaign) vs his actual term and you can see he’s far more effective in office than on the trial .

It's fascinating to watch.  He's building the 1st high-profile political machine on the R side since pre-WWII Pennsylvania.

*Yes, there's been some rural county stuff here and there, but nothing on this scale.

Well Bush did it to Texas in the mid to late 1990s as well and built a pretty strong machine in Texas as well.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol we don't need FL as I have repeatedly said OH or TX or NC are better pick-ups

[Devils30]

Miami- Dade just has a different makeup Latino voters compared to everywhere else. Venezuelan, Cuban, Puerto Rican (outside NY) are pretty much 0% of the electorate. This group is much different than Mexican-Americans in NV, AZ, TX, CA. TX Tejanos are more conservative as a result of being 4th generation Americans as opposed to a reaction to Latin American leftist regimes.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

DeSantis is actually effective at using power to bring upon change but is just terrible at initially campaigning for it . Just see how much he struggled vs Gillum in 2018(it was as bad as this campaign) vs his actual term and you can see he’s far more effective in office than on the trial .

It's fascinating to watch.  He's building the 1st high-profile political machine on the R side since pre-WWII Pennsylvania.

*Yes, there's been some rural county stuff here and there, but nothing on this scale.

Well Bush did it to Texas in the mid to late 1990s as well and built a pretty strong machine in Texas as well.

I didn't watch the development of the the political machines back then, but I would bet that Texas in the late 1990s gained a lot of Republican voters, while the current Republican voter registration edge in Florida is entirely from a purge of Democratic voters, while Republicans actually gained virtually no new voters.

Also, Texas was already way to the right of the tipping point state by early 1990s (unlike Florida, which is only about 4 points to the right).

In the past years, the Florida Democratic Party has been a joke, either running former Republicans (Murphy, Crist) or people easily painted as a socialist (Gillum). They actually have fielded a good candidate this time - whether or not they nominate her given their past track record is up for question though.

[Horus]

Not a single Democratic cent should be spent in this state.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Not a single Democratic cent should be spent in this state.

It's a 303 map anyways

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not a single Democratic cent should be spent in this state.

Disagree. Scott is toxic and unappealing and Mucarsel Powell is strong. It might be more worthwhile than TX given Biden will likely talk about abortion a lot

[Horus]

Not a single Democratic cent should be spent in this state.

Disagree. Scott is toxic and unappealing and Mucarsel Powell is strong. It might be more worthwhile than TX given Biden will likely talk about abortion a lot

The SW part of the state is getting packed to the brim with Trumpy boomers. Scott will win by at least 5 points even if DMC gets tons of funding. It is a lost cause.

[Devils30]

The FL GOP vote sink- helped by Miami's rightward movement, NY's red trend (will not be near 2022 levels) and CA's slight red trend are why Biden might be able to carry the electoral college even with a Hillary 2016 type popular vote.

Its really not that hard to see, AZ/GA move 2 points to the left relative to the NPV, MI/PA/WI one point left and NV stays constant.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The FL GOP vote sink- helped by Miami's rightward movement, NY's red trend (will not be near 2022 levels) and CA's slight red trend are why Biden might be able to carry the electoral college even with a Hillary 2016 type popular vote.

Its really not that hard to see, AZ/GA move 2 points to the left relative to the NPV, MI/PA/WI one point left and NV stays constant.

Party registration statistics are lagging indicators, so we don't know whether or not it will continue to move right. Republicans are actually gaining in almost every state in the country (except for Colorado maybe), but it's mostly because Democrats are losing more voters than Republican. DeSantis has simply been more aggressive at purging voters from the rolls.

I agree that NY will have a red trend. I think FL is the one which won't trend anywhere near 2022 levels (with COVID gone as an issue for FL and being replaced with abortion/social security/insurance crisis, while crime/migrant crisis still remains salient for NY's part).

The party registration of voters of AZ voters in 2022 was R +8, more than FL's R +4 right now. I don't think Georgia does registration by party, but I believe identification was something like R +6 at least in 2022 based on polls. I wouldn't read too much into it.

The SW part of the state is getting packed to the brim with Trumpy boomers. Scott will win by at least 5 points even if DMC gets tons of funding. It is a lost cause.

Trump Boomers won't vote for someone who created the proposal to sunset Social Security as part of the GOP's 2022 midterm platform. The whole reason Trump improved over Romney in the area was because he pledged to leave SS/Medicare intact. I wouldn't be so certain Rick Scott gets Trump numbers there.

[Dr. MB]

Miami-Dade will go R in 2024. Thanks progressives!

Amazing how R’s have twisted the term “progressive” into something of a derogatory smear term in the current polarized climate. Since when did progress become a bad thing?

It's not the term, it's their behavior.

How are “progressives” to blame for this?