Miami-Dade County Democratic Voter Registration Edge drop, R's now within 75K (Update; P3)

[2016]

DEMOCRATIC 537,430
REPUBLICAN 437,479
NPA + Minor Parties 503,347

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vljDXB4r8YFNi6oWKdtEWkZ_lDEjM1BT/edit#gid=1850379568

Republicans extend Voter Registration Edge over Democrats Overall in the State to 581,000+!

The last time it was under 100,000 in Miami-Dade was during the Reagan Years I believe.

[DaleCooper]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

DeSantis is actually effective at using power to bring upon change but is just terrible at initially campaigning for it . Just see how much he struggled vs Gillum in 2018(it was as bad as this campaign) vs his actual term and you can see he’s far more effective in office than on the trial .

[Ferguson97]

I feel like some of this has to be state-to-state migration. I know the Florida Dems are bad, but are they really that much worse than any other state party?

[2016]

Democrats cannot win FL with those sort of Numbers out of Miami-Dade. Just not possible!

And Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against Scott, may have underestimated how South Florida has shifted before announcing her run.

[DaleCooper]

I feel like some of this has to be state-to-state migration. I know the Florida Dems are bad, but are they really that much worse than any other state party?

From my understanding, yes they really are.

Migration doesn't help, but any conversation about Florida elections needs to start with Democratic incompetence.

[DrScholl]

Florida has gone completely insane. But with all the bizarre stories out of there every day this has been a long time coming.

[Roll Roons]

I feel like some of this has to be state-to-state migration. I know the Florida Dems are bad, but are they really that much worse than any other state party?

From my understanding, yes they really are.

Migration doesn't help, but any conversation about Florida elections needs to start with Democratic incompetence.

If you have a few minutes, I'd highly recommend you read this piece (https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/anatomy-of-a-murder-democratic-party-florida) about why the Florida Democrats are so useless. I think you'll find yourself agreeing with a lot of it.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

[The Mamdani Virus]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

I do think Mucarsel Powell has a real shot however I think it’s difficult to see Biden actually having any chance at winning the state, so it’s kind of a waste of money for him. Besides, I think she’s going to want to distance herself from him anyway

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The Florida Democratic Party needs to be cleaned out and rebuilt completely from the top to bottom. This is just inexcusable.

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

The worst are the so-called Democrats who want to abandon Florida and stick it to Miami-Dade by becoming buddies with Cuba. If those people were in charge Democrats would never get above 200 EVs, because they would stick it to any constituency who swung against them.

I do think Mucarsel Powell has a real shot however I think it’s difficult to see Biden actually having any chance at winning the state, so it’s kind of a waste of money for him. Besides, I think she’s going to want to distance herself from him anyway

Democrats likely need abortion on the ballot to have a chance at the Senate seat. I agree that the state is gone for Biden, and DMP wants to distance herself from Biden as much as possible.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

Miamians (especially the Cubans) love Darth Cheeto. Nothing can be done about that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats cannot win FL with those sort of Numbers out of Miami-Dade. Just not possible!

And Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against Scott, may have underestimated how South Florida has shifted before announcing her run.

Def think FL is drifting away from Dems, but I disagree; Dems could theoretically win FL while narrowly losing Miami-Dade even if they got their act together in the other main metros (Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville).

Miami-Dade is "only" like 1/9th of the states population, so a 25 point shift right can be cancelled out by the rest of the state shifting like 3 points left.

The issue for Dems ofc is that they're not seeing the gains in metro Tampa and Orlando that they're seeing in most other growing metros of their size. I think this is for a combination of who's moving into these metros and the state Dem Party just sucking, and it's something that's very unlikely to be "fixed" by 2024.

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Beautiful. Thank God. The Florida Republicans nonetheless cannot ever afford to let their guard down.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

That's the thing that's insane to me. Up until 2018/2020, the County was seen as shifting left, even hard left, but Trump was particularly effective at messaging here and reversed that big time.

It's really interesting how much better Hillary 2016 did than Obama 2012 though. You'd think if Miami-Dade shifting right was a Trump specific thing, you would've at least seen the start of that in 2016, and if it was a COVID-specific thing it would've bounced back a bit in 2022.

Another possibility was that Obama and HRC were just anomalies; in 2000 and 2004, Miami-Dade only voted D + 6 for Pres which is comparable to Biden 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Imagine being on the brink of finally losing the the largest, most urban, most ethnically diverse county in the southeastern United States- one that Hillary carried by 30 points and was trending blue less than a decade ago.

That's the thing that's insane to me. Up until 2018/2020, the County was seen as shifting left, even hard left, but Trump was particularly effective at messaging here and reversed that big time.

It's really interesting how much better Hillary 2016 did than Obama 2012 though. You'd think if Miami-Dade shifting right was a Trump specific thing, you would've at least seen the start of that in 2016, and if it was a COVID-specific thing it would've bounced back a bit in 2022.

Another possibility was that Obama and HRC were just anomalies; in 2000 and 2004, Miami-Dade only voted D + 6 for Pres which is comparable to Biden 2020.

I'd say 2018 was the starting point. Gillum and Nelson only won Miami-Dade by 20 points each, which ultimately cost them the election. 2016 might have been inflated because of bad blood between Trump and Rubio in the primary and that had they reconciled Trump would have only lost Dade by around 15-20 points, good for a 2-3 win statewide.

You could also argue that 2022 was a reflection of DeSantis and Rubio's broad popularity in the county, and that Trump 2024 won't be able to replicate that showing.

[DaleCooper]

I feel like some of this has to be state-to-state migration. I know the Florida Dems are bad, but are they really that much worse than any other state party?

From my understanding, yes they really are.

Migration doesn't help, but any conversation about Florida elections needs to start with Democratic incompetence.

If you have a few minutes, I'd highly recommend you read this piece (https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/anatomy-of-a-murder-democratic-party-florida) about why the Florida Democrats are so useless. I think you'll find yourself agreeing with a lot of it.

Very interesting, thanks.

If this is an accurate description of the situation down there then it only further affirms something I've suspected for years now which is that Obama really was a disaster for the Democratic Party.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Democrats cannot win FL with those sort of Numbers out of Miami-Dade. Just not possible!

And Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running against Scott, may have underestimated how South Florida has shifted before announcing her run.

Def think FL is drifting away from Dems, but I disagree; Dems could theoretically win FL while narrowly losing Miami-Dade even if they got their act together in the other main metros (Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville).

Miami-Dade is "only" like 1/9th of the states population, so a 25 point shift right can be cancelled out by the rest of the state shifting like 3 points left.

The issue for Dems ofc is that they're not seeing the gains in metro Tampa and Orlando that they're seeing in most other growing metros of their size. I think this is for a combination of who's moving into these metros and the state Dem Party just sucking, and it's something that's very unlikely to be "fixed" by 2024.

Its possible this implies that both Broward and Palm Beach swing left against a right trending Miami-Dade which I don't see happening. If Miami-Dade keeps lurching rightwards Broward and Palm Beach will get closer, and best case for Dems is they stagnate but that isn't enough.

Orlando metro has an issue where the wealthy educated suburban county of Seminole is shifting left, but the heavily hispanic Osceola county drifts right and Orange county seems pretty much stagnant.

Jacksonville is shifting Dem but its too little too late. Had Duval been like this a few years ago Bill Nelson would have probably won, but now it doesn't hold a candle to Miami-Dade.

[2016]

Progressive Moderate & Arizona Iced Tea
Keep one thing in mind when talking about Orlando: Orange County (where Orlando is located) was a "Swing County" during the George W. Bush Presidency (GBW lost it against Gore in 2000, won it against Kerry in 2004). I am still flummoxed why this Country drifted so much to the Democrats from 2004-2016. Probably because of the Puerto Rican Voters in the State is my guess.

The Democrats got another huge problem on their hands in Florida if Puerto Rican Voters are starting to drift away from them.

Trump did better among that Subgroup in 2020 compared to 2016 and Rubio got 43 % in Orange while DeSantis got 46 %. If these trends continue among Puerto Rican Voters in 2024 D's will have yet another problem.

Bottom Line: Republicans have made inroads among Puerto Ricans and that has a lot to do how Rick Scott managed Hurricane Maria and DeSantis managed Hurricane IAN and now Idalia. I wouldn't be surprised if Scott does better among them compared to 2018 when he narrowly beat Nelson.

[2016]

So not only are Democrats losing Southern Florida Hispanics, they are losing Puerto Rican Voters in the middle of the State as well. They have a problem methinks.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Florida Democratic leadership: "Florida is lost if Bernie is the nominee"
Also Florida Democratic leadership: "Oops"

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Miami is basically a magnet for Hitlerite techbros and Latin American emigres who can't get over getting their plantations taken away, not a real shock.

[Skill and Chance]

It is absolutely staggering how bad the Florida Democratic Party is allowed to be. You'd think that Florida was as noncompetitive as Wyoming with how little any Democrats in the state care about winning.

DeSantis is actually effective at using power to bring upon change but is just terrible at initially campaigning for it . Just see how much he struggled vs Gillum in 2018(it was as bad as this campaign) vs his actual term and you can see he’s far more effective in office than on the trial .

It's fascinating to watch.  He's building the 1st high-profile political machine on the R side since pre-WWII Pennsylvania.

*Yes, there's been some rural county stuff here and there, but nothing on this scale.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Progressive Moderate & Arizona Iced Tea
Keep one thing in mind when talking about Orlando: Orange County (where Orlando is located) was a "Swing County" during the George W. Bush Presidency (GBW lost it against Gore in 2000, won it against Kerry in 2004). I am still flummoxed why this Country drifted so much to the Democrats from 2004-2016. Probably because of the Puerto Rican Voters in the State is my guess.

The Democrats got another huge problem on their hands in Florida if Puerto Rican Voters are starting to drift away from them.

Trump did better among that Subgroup in 2020 compared to 2016 and Rubio got 43 % in Orange while DeSantis got 46 %. If these trends continue among Puerto Rican Voters in 2024 D's will have yet another problem.

Bottom Line: Republicans have made inroads among Puerto Ricans and that has a lot to do how Rick Scott managed Hurricane Maria and DeSantis managed Hurricane IAN and now Idalia. I wouldn't be surprised if Scott does better among them compared to 2018 when he narrowly beat Nelson.

Ye agree; it seems like the GOP has made some big gains with Hispanic groups across the board in Florida and it's a huge part of the reason shifts in Orlando and Tampa haven't been like other metros.

I would be curious to what extent does the political fallout from good/bad hurricane management actually bleed over into races at the federal level?