Norway local elections, 11 September 2023

[Mike88]

Norway will hold local election on Monday, 11 September 2023. Current polling shows that the Conservative Party (Høyre) is leading the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet), although the margin seems to be narrowing a bit as election day approaches. Latest poll:

If the Conservatives poll ahead of Labour, this would be the first time in almost 100 years that Labour is not the 1st party in a Norwegian election. What kind of impact could this have on the current Labour government?

[Mike88]

The election is today. Polls close at 9pm local time, in around 3 hours.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closed.

NRK exit poll:

24.2% Conservative Party
21.3% Labour Party
11.4% Progress Party
  9.7% Centre Party
  7.0% Socialist Left
  4.8% Liberal Party
  3.9% Green Party
  3.9% Christian Democratic Party
  3.7% Red Party
  
Oslo exit poll:

30 seats for the Conservative coalition
29 seats for the Red-Green coalition

[Mike88]

First results are being published, 44.9% counted:

27.4% Conservative Party
21.7% Labour Party
10.9% Progress Party
  7.2% Centre Party
  7.1% Socialist Left
  4.7% Liberal Party
  4.3% Green Party
  3.7% Christian Democratic Party
  3.7% Red Party
  2.9% Industry and Business Party

[Mike88]

Oslo city, 48.1% counted:

34.9% Conservative Party
17.8% Labour Party
10.2% Green Party
10.1% Socialist Left
  7.8% Liberal Party
  6.4% Progress Party
  5.9% Red Party
  1.5% Christian Democratic Party
  0.6% Centre Party

[Mike88]

NRK live feed: https://tv.nrk.no/direkte/nrktv8

[Mike88]

70.4% counted:

25.6% Conservative Party (+5.5)
21.8% Labour Party (-3.0)
11.4% Progress Party (+3.2)
  8.7% Centre Party (-5.7)
  6.7% Socialist Left (+0.6)
  4.6% Liberal Party (+0.7)
  4.1% Christian Democratic Party (+0.1)
  3.9% Green Party (-2.9)
  3.4% Red Party (-0.4)
  3.1% Industry and Business Party (new)

[Mike88]

Combined right bloc is projected to be at 42-45% of the vote which is on the lower end of polling average.

Well, the last combined polling average of H+FrP+KRP+V had them at 46.5%. The projected results gives them 46%.

[Mike88]

I assume Industry and Business are some wierd libertarians, Russian puppets and/or cranks?

Not sure. In Wikipedia, their description is that they are a Isolationist party and that they see themselves as from the center-left to the rightwing. A bit syncretic.

[Mike88]

RIP Ap's first place position: 1927 - 2023. Almost made it 100 years, though polling since 2022 suggesting it would happen and not by a small margin.

Of the Nordic countries, only Sweden has now a dominant Social Democratic Party.

[Mike88]

Nationwide, almost final, results, 99.7% counted:

25.9% Conservative Party (+5.8 )
21.7% Labour Party (-3.1)
11.4% Progress Party (+3.1)
  8.2% Centre Party (-6.2)
  6.8% Socialist Left (+0.7)
  5.0% Liberal Party (+1.1)
  4.1% Green Party (-2.7)
  4.0% Christian Democratic Party (nc)
  3.5% Red Party (-0.3)
  3.1% Industry and Business Party (new)
  6.3% Others

62.2% Turnout (-2.5)

Results in the 4 main cities:

Oslo, 100.0% counted. Conservative coalition majority.

32.6% Conservative Party (+7.2)
18.5% Labour Party (-1.5)
10.2% Green Party (-5.1)
10.1% Socialist Left (+1.0)
  9.1% Liberal Party (+3.3)
  6.0% Progress Party (+0.8 )
  5.8% Red Party (-0.3)
  1.7% Christian Democratic Party (nc)
  1.1% Industry and Business Party (new)
  0.8% Centre Party (-1.4)
  4.1% Others

64.2% Turnout

Bergen, 100.0% counted. No majority, Conservative coalition leads.

26.4% Conservative Party (+6.4)
18.5% Labour Party (-1.3)
10.5% Progress Party (+5.9)
10.0% Socialist Left (+1.3)
  5.1% Independent (new)
  5.0% Liberal Party (+1.1)
  4.9% Green Party (-5.0)
  4.1% Industry and Business Party (new)
  4.0% Red Party (-0.9)
  3.4% Christian Democratic Party (+0.3)
  2.3% Centre Party (-3.0)
  5.8% Others

63.6% Turnout

Stavanger, 100.0% counted. Conservative coalition majority.

32.2% Labour Party (+6.7)
30.4% Conservative Party (+7.4)
  8.5% Progress Party (-0.1)
  4.6% Christian Democratic Party (+0.2)
  4.6% Socialist Left (-0.2)
  3.8% Red Party (-1.7)
  3.6% Liberal Party (-1.1)
  3.2% Industry and Business Party (new)
  2.8% Green Party (-3.6)
  2.1% Centre Party (-2.7)
  4.2% Others

67.1% Turnout

Trondheim, 100.0% counted. Red-Green coalition majority.

29.3% Conservative Party (+8.6)
24.2% Labour Party (-0.8 )
12.2% Socialist Left (+0.9)
  6.1% Green Party (-4.3)
  5.7% Liberal Party (+0.7)
  5.4% Progress Party (+0.3)
  4.6% Pensioners' Party (-0.2)
  4.6% Red Party (-2.3)
  2.0% Centre Party (-5.1)
  2.0% Christian Democratic Party (nc)
  2.0% Industry and Business Party (new)
  1.9% Others

66.0% Turnout

[Mike88]

The Norwegian governments is generally doing very poorly in the polls at the moment, the Labour Party in particular.

Any reason for that??

I have generally been confused by that for a while,  but the main response I got last time I asked was just the invasion of Ukraine.  That resulted in energy price hikes, which is when the Conservatives started surging in the polls. It seems too simple,  but I guess said prices matter even more than usual in a country where heating is necessary almost year-round.

I also think there have been a lot of scandals involving the government, especially an expenses scandal that broke in November 2021, just weeks after the swearing in of the new Red-Green government, and since then the Conservatives have been leading in the polls. Of course, scandals added with a cost of living crisis are a powerful cocktail for any government.