Are dems punching above weight in Iowa?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Wait SC and IL are the same? I mean  it makes sense because most suburban precincts should have enough Asians and other races to get whites below 90 but wow.

90+ White precincts in IL are mostly going to be in conservative Downstate rural towns, so this makes sense.

[Mr. Illini]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

[Roll Roons]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

Wisconsin and Minnesota are out of reach for Democrats?

[Mr. Illini]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

Wisconsin and Minnesota are out of reach for Democrats?

No states are completely out of reach. The trend has made winning there a lot more difficult because the states are so white. Iowa is most challenging, which I believe is the whitest.

[Gass3268]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

Wisconsin and Minnesota are out of reach for Democrats?

No states are completely out of reach. The trend has made winning there a lot more difficult because the states are so white. Iowa is most challenging, which I believe is the whitest.

Yeah, Iowa doesn't have the large metro comparable to the Twin Cities/Milwaukee that is trending left or a booming secondary metro that continues to add thousands of Democratic voters every cycle like Madison.

[freepcrusher]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

Wisconsin and Minnesota are out of reach for Democrats?

No states are completely out of reach. The trend has made winning there a lot more difficult because the states are so white. Iowa is most challenging, which I believe is the whitest.

Yeah, Iowa doesn't have the large metro comparable to the Twin Cities/Milwaukee that is trending left or a booming secondary metro that continues to add thousands of Democratic voters every cycle like Madison.

fun fact - if Kennedy and Nixon got the exact same percentages in 1960 that Biden and Trump did in 2020 in all 99 counties - Nixon would have gotten 57% of the vote (which is actually what he received). The very republican counties near the Missouri and Nebraska borders are losing voters both as a % but also in raw numbers.

So there will be a path to winning Iowa on a "cities only" basis but it will be viable around the time of the tricentennial.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I remember seeing a map of the 2012 election showing the winner of the white vote in every state. Iowa was blue while California and Illinois were red.

I think without question, WWC voters in Iowa hold on to more of the Democratic tradition than in other places. Parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota would be included in this as well.

Unfortunately for Democrats, these states are so white that it still isn’t enough to win there.

Wisconsin and Minnesota are out of reach for Democrats?

Wisconsin isn't nearly as white as Iowa because of the Milwaukee area. Minnesota also has a lot of somalians in the Twin City area.

[freepcrusher]

if you were to try to calculate the actual percent of the white vote nationwide - would you try to get a bigger sample size so that it's 60-65 percent of the electorate. So if you classify every precinct either more than 75% white, or if below that, 60+ percent for Trump as "white", what percent of the electorate would that be?

When I was looking at just 90% white precincts - it's interesting to see a north south divide. In states like Wisconsin - there are far more 90%+ white precincts than 75%+ Trump precincts. In the southern united states, there are far more 75%+ Trump precincts than 90%+ white precincts.