Post-debate forecast
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Author Topic: Post-debate forecast  (Read 437 times)
WalterWhite
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United States
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E: -9.35, S: -9.83

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« on: August 23, 2023, 10:30:38 PM »
Ranking:
1. Trump - 45%
2. Ramaswamy - 17%
3. DeSantis - 10%
4. Haley - 9%
5. Burgum - 4%
5. Pence - 2%
6. Scott - 2%
7. Christie - 2%
8. Burgum - 2%
9. Hutchinson - 1%
Undecided - 6%
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Meatball Slayer
NeverDeSantis
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2023, 10:33:34 PM »
Quote from: WalterWhite on August 23, 2023, 10:30:38 PM
Ranking:
1. Trump - 45%
2. Ramaswamy - 17%
3. DeSantis - 10%
4. Haley - 9%
5. Burgum - 4%
5. Pence - 2%
6. Scott - 2%
7. Christie - 2%
8. Burgum - 2%
9. Hutchinson - 1%
Undecided - 6%
Flip Haley and DeSantis
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Mr. Third-Wayist
Liam
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,126
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2023, 10:34:01 PM »
1. Trump - 55%
2. DeSantis - 12%
3. Ramaswamy - 9%
4. Haley - 8%
5. Burgum - 4%
5. Pence - 2%
6. Scott - 2%
7. Christie - 2%
8. Burgum - 2%
9. Hutchinson - 1%
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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Political Matrix
E: 6.93, S: -3.83

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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2023, 10:36:46 PM »
Quote from: WalterWhite on August 23, 2023, 10:30:38 PM
Ranking:
1. Trump - 45%
2. Ramaswamy - 17%
3. DeSantis - 10%
4. Haley - 9%
5. Burgum - 4%
5. Pence - 2%
6. Scott - 2%
7. Christie - 2%
8. Burgum - 2%
9. Hutchinson - 1%
Undecided - 6%
No way Trump falls to 45%.
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2023, 10:37:37 PM »
Trump 55% or so, DeSantis in the teens, everyone else below 10%. No significant change since I don't think that many people watched it anyway
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2023, 10:38:35 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on August 23, 2023, 10:37:37 PM
Trump 55% or so, DeSantis in the teens, everyone else below 10%. No significant change since I don't think that many people watched it anyway
If few people watched the debate, then what matters is what can be used in an ad. Do you think anyone said anything that could be used very positively or negatively in an ad?
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2023, 10:40:09 PM »
Quote from: riverwalk3 on August 23, 2023, 10:38:35 PM
Quote from: dspNY on August 23, 2023, 10:37:37 PM
Trump 55% or so, DeSantis in the teens, everyone else below 10%. No significant change since I don't think that many people watched it anyway
If few people watched the debate, then what matters is what can be used in an ad. Do you think anyone said anything that could be used very positively or negatively in an ad?

Nothing that would significantly move the needle
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Progressive Pessimist
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United States


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E: -6.71, S: -7.65

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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2023, 10:58:55 PM »
Ramaswamy catches up to DeSantis, Haley acquires some Scott support, little else changes.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
johnzaharoff
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2023, 11:13:17 PM »
Not going to give numbers because pollsters seem to disagree.

Trump falls slightly (from indictment bump)

DeSantis holds,

Small Bump for Haley (takes over 3rd). Declines for Scott

Vivek had a polarizing performance. The only ones I see really praising his performance are already committed Trump people. (Who of course prefer the actual thing) I think supporters of other candidates just found him annoying. I don't see where he gains from. 
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2023, 11:25:47 PM »
I usually disagree strongly with David Frum, but here's one where I agree
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
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United States


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E: 2.06, S: 5.74


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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2023, 11:27:03 PM »
Trump 55%. I will stop watching debates.
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Atlas Force
mlee117379
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2023, 11:29:08 PM »
Quote from: riverwalk3 on August 23, 2023, 11:25:47 PM
I usually disagree strongly with David Frum, but here's one where I agree

OUCH
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