My take on the First Republican Presidential Debate, and how it will affect polling

[Meatball Slayer]

Out of all eight candidates on stage today…

Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley, of all the candidates on stage, performed the best. Vivek was full of energy, and Nikki Haley, as much as I loathe her on many issues, struck the right tone on abortion that all GOP candidates should emulate.

Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie performed pretty okay despite what I think was a lack of screen time.

Ron DeSantis, Asa Hutchinson, and Mike Pence did the worst out of everyone on stage. DeSantis was basically nonexistent throughout the majority of the debate (gave me Scott Walker 2016 vibes), which isn’t an option for him given his poll numbers. Hutchinson and Pence got routinely destroyed by the other candidates.



I think that, after today’s debate, Ramaswamy and Haley will surge nationally, bypassing DeSantis, who will be relegated to 4th/5th place. Burgum, Christie, and Scott will go up somewhat or be stagnant, and Pence + Hutchinson will decline similarly to DeSantis.

[Senator Incitatus]

I think not much will change (beyond what was already happening). Maybe Trump will gain 5% and someone who didn't appear will drop out.

[Ferguson97]

I think Trump, Haley, and Vivek will go up in the polls. Everyone else goes down or stays the same.

[MARGINS6729]

Haley could very well be Trump's VP pick.

[MichaelM24]

What I'm mostly curious about is whether candidates both there (Burgam, Hutchinson) and not there (Perry, Suarez, and Elder) will drop out, or if we'll have to wait a bit longer before the field's thinned.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

[Sestak]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

This is one of the most out of nowhere analogies I’ve ever heard; what exactly do you mean by this?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

This is one of the most out of nowhere analogies I’ve ever heard; what exactly do you mean by this?

The analogy doesn't make sense unless you followed the chess candidates tournaments closely last year.

Basically, halfway through the tournament, Nepomniachtchi was only 1 point ahead of Caruana, and both were way ahead of the field. At that point, Caruana arrogantly declared "it's a two horse race".

Later on, Caruana became a punching bag and a lot of people beat Caruana (at the grandmaster level, defeats are very bad in chess; draws are very common). Eventually, Caruana fell to 5th place, and Ian Nepomniachtchi was a distant first. 2nd-4th were very close and were completely unexpected.

Here are the game results for what I mean. Try to see how the results looked like each day to get an overall sense of how it felt watching live.

[Sestak]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

This is one of the most out of nowhere analogies I’ve ever heard; what exactly do you mean by this?

The analogy doesn't make sense unless you followed the chess candidates tournaments closely last year.

I was following as it happened; I think your comparison gives DeSantis too much credit in terms of actually starting out competitive.

Surely the better comparison is Firouzja - seen as a rising star, relentlessly hyped up as the only guy who can challenge the established top dog, is singled out as a challenger by said top dog, then completely disappears when face to face with his fellow candidates?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

This is one of the most out of nowhere analogies I’ve ever heard; what exactly do you mean by this?

The analogy doesn't make sense unless you followed the chess candidates tournaments closely last year.

I was following as it happened; I think your comparison gives DeSantis too much credit in terms of actually starting out competitive.

Surely the better comparison is Firouzja - seen as a rising star, relentlessly hyped up as the only guy who can challenge the established top dog, is singled out as a challenger by said top dog, then completely disappears when face to face with his fellow candidates?

In March 2022 (ie "in the middle of the tournament"), DeSantis was very close to Trump, and it looked like a two horse race. This is like how Caruana was very close to Nepomniachtchi halfway. Then, everyone started beating him and he finished 5th.

[Atlas Force]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

Well I didn’t expect you to be a chess fan.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

DeSantis reminds me of Fabiano Caruana in the chess candidates tournament last year (Trump is like Ian Nepomniachtchi).

Well I didn’t expect you to be a chess fan.

I follow chess very casually; I'm not very good at the game myself. One of my coworkers last year had a national chess title, which made me follow the games more then.