RaceToTheWhiteHouse Forecast (as of August 23, 2023)

[WalterWhite]

NOTE: It is over a year until Election Day, so it is important to take all of these polls with a grain of salt.

2024 Presidential:

National: D+0.9%

Alaska: R+8.9%

Arizona: D+0.6%

Florida: R+8.9%

Georgia: D+0.3%

Iowa: R+4.8%

Michigan: D+1.6%

Minnesota: D+9.5%

Nevada: D+2.8%

New Hampshire: D+7.7%

North Carolina: R+4.3%

Ohio: R+9.3%

Pennsylvania: D+1.5%

Texas: R+1.8%

Wisconsin: D+7.2%

2024 Senate:

Arizona: D+8.2%

Delaware: D+22.1%

Florida: R+11.4%

Indiana: R+18.5%

Maine: D+19.7%

Michigan: D+6.0%

Minnesota: D+15.3%

Montana: R+0.5%

Nevada: D+11.5%

New Jersey: D+10.4%

New Mexico: D+18.7%

Ohio: D+3.6%

Pennsylvania: D+10.9%

Texas: R+5.9%

Utah: R+17.2%

Virginia: D+15.4%

West Virginia: R+18.0%

Wisconsin: D+9.3%

2024 House:

Generic ballot: R+0.5%

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Wisconsin vs MI/PA is clearly wrong.

[WalterWhite]

Wisconsin vs MI/PA is clearly wrong.

Perhaps RaceToTheWhiteHouse expects Biden to improve amongst Driftless Area voters, which explains why the model thinks Biden will improve in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Wisconsin vs MI/PA is clearly wrong.

Perhaps RaceToTheWhiteHouse expects Biden to improve amongst Driftless Area voters, which explains why the model thinks Biden will improve in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

I think any polling showing WI way to the left of MI/PA is a mirage again. We've seen this occur in 2016/2020.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Wisconsin is not going to vote 6 points to the left of the national average; that’s an Obama ‘08 result that just ain’t going to be replicated now.

North Carolina is not going to vote 2.5 points to the right of Texas.

Iowa is not going to be within 5 points.

The Ohio margin is believable for president, but Sherrod Brown is not going to be outperforming Biden by 13 points.

Would love to know the exact methodology behind a lot of these forecasts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At first glance, the numbers look like a collection of random polling averages rather than any kind of rigorous model.