Will Trump do better or worse in Hawaii than he did in 2020?

[Tekken_Guy]

Will Trump do better or worse in Hawaii than he did in 2020?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As I have said before and say it again we are in a Pandemic world and people are reliable on Govt that's why DeSantis performance in 22 was so good due to IAN and Christie is past his prime for Sandy and Obama for Credit, Biden low Approvals are due to mainly because we haven't solved COVID not based on performance because Ds overperformrned in polls always when we go to poll. Maui disaster was a reliance on Govt

Trump will do worse he is under 4 Indictment , Biden will win HI with 75% just like he will go up.in IL to Obama number 61/38, Nazis Hirono is on the ballot , that's how bad Trump will do, Biden isn't Hillary as I keep telling Conserv this

[Meatball Slayer]

Better.

Biden literally tried to turn such a massive tragedy like Maui into a storytime about how he almost lost his beloved Corvette.

[Angel of Death]

Hawaii has a history of having a pro-incumbency lean.

[Vosem]

Hawaii has swung against incumbent Presidents in the past (1992, 1980, 1976), but only when they've been losing nationally. This is kind of a silly rule, but I suspect that Hawaii has a strong enough pro-incumbent lean that an incumbent losing ground there probably is losing nationally.

Biden's wildfire response seems to be getting universally panned but I don't know that that'll still be the main issue by the time the 2024 general rolls around. (It's also not clear to me that Biden will ultimately be blamed for things: Bush's response to Katrina was also universally panned, but Louisiana had a backlash to the Democratic state government so strong that in 2008 the state swung right. Yes, even if you adjust for many Louisianans living in Texas and the Upper South swing, it was still one of McCain's few actual "good" performances; LA is the only state at which the strongest presidential cycle for Republicans of the 21st century was 2008).

[Skill and Chance]

Hawaii has swung against incumbent Presidents in the past (1992, 1980, 1976), but only when they've been losing nationally. This is kind of a silly rule, but I suspect that Hawaii has a strong enough pro-incumbent lean that an incumbent losing ground there probably is losing nationally.

Biden's wildfire response seems to be getting universally panned but I don't know that that'll still be the main issue by the time the 2024 general rolls around. (It's also not clear to me that Biden will ultimately be blamed for things: Bush's response to Katrina was also universally panned, but Louisiana had a backlash to the Democratic state government so strong that in 2008 the state swung right. Yes, even if you adjust for many Louisianans living in Texas and the Upper South swing, it was still one of McCain's few actual "good" performances; LA is the only state at which the strongest presidential cycle for Republicans of the 21st century was 2008).

McCain was so underrated as a candidate.  You could make a strong case that McCain not getting blown out 40/57 by Obama in that economic environment was the most impressive R performance since 1988.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Hawaii has swung against incumbent Presidents in the past (1992, 1980, 1976), but only when they've been losing nationally. This is kind of a silly rule, but I suspect that Hawaii has a strong enough pro-incumbent lean that an incumbent losing ground there probably is losing nationally.

Biden's wildfire response seems to be getting universally panned but I don't know that that'll still be the main issue by the time the 2024 general rolls around. (It's also not clear to me that Biden will ultimately be blamed for things: Bush's response to Katrina was also universally panned, but Louisiana had a backlash to the Democratic state government so strong that in 2008 the state swung right. Yes, even if you adjust for many Louisianans living in Texas and the Upper South swing, it was still one of McCain's few actual "good" performances; LA is the only state at which the strongest presidential cycle for Republicans of the 21st century was 2008).

McCain was so underrated as a candidate.  You could make a strong case that McCain not getting blown out 40/57 by Obama in that economic environment was the most impressive R performance since 1988.

I don't like McCain personally, but he managed to outrun the house Generic Ballot, unlike Romney or Trump (in either of his runs).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

With the asiexit I’m predicting, absolutely.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna do better than 2020 results especially in blue states based on 22 results Biden is gonna win HI with 75/25 percentage of the vote and the reason why Biden is gonna do better is because Trump gave out Stimulus checks in 20, and unemployment was going down without inflation until Biden took office

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's going to be a matter of Asian rightward trends versus incumbency friendliness that the state often has. This kind of goes for Asians and Hispanics nationally, come to think of it.

I don't think the Maui wildfires will be much of an issue by next November. I don't even think we should assume that somehow Hawaii is pissed at Biden over it.

[Ferguson97]

Biden's wildfire response seems to be getting universally panned

By who, Fox News and right-wing Facebook boomer?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Better cause I think Asians swing right.

[Agafin]

Worse cause I think Asians swing right.

Then you meant "better".