Why is there a polling/endorsement gap against Trump?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 06, 2025, 01:17:38 PM
News: Election Calculator 3.0 with county/house maps is now live. For more info, click here

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  Why is there a polling/endorsement gap against Trump?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Why is there a polling/endorsement gap against Trump?  (Read 281 times)
Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter
leecannon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,677
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 21, 2023, 03:57:41 PM »

I’ve noticed in an every early primary state DeSantis (or Tim Scott in SC) has more endorsements from state legislators, yet in every state Trump is polling around the 50% margin. Michigan is the most egregious example, with only 3 state representatives endorsing Trump, who is polling at almost 60%, compared to DeSantis 19 state representatives and ~15% polling.

Has there been a recent primary where most elected officials seem to be grossly out of step with their constituents?
Logged
Sheikh Scott Walker
Raid Shadow Legends
Rookie
**
Posts: 25
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2023, 10:58:23 PM »

Why wouldn't there be a endorsement gap? The average pre-Trump politician hates Trump. He destroyed the reputation of the party and is gearing up to get the party destroyed again in 2024. Republicans lose whenever the election is about Trump.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,184


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2023, 08:39:09 AM »

Worth pointing out every single MI US House R has endorsed Trump.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,731
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2023, 10:58:21 AM »

Even more subtly, Trump's initial primary victory was with a really strange coalition which is almost never assembled for lower-race primaries, and people who try to assemble it are usually easily beaten. (Scattered exceptions like Vance exist, but they're very much scattered exceptions). It's not that most lower-ranked elected officials are pre-Trump holdovers; it's that primaries for lower-ranking offices have very much continued following lots of pre-Trump patterns.

(In terms of someone getting nominated while following a strategy that no one uses successfully for other primaries, Trump is probably the biggest outlier in the history of the primary system. The only even comparable cases are Carter '76 and Obama '08, who interestingly also became Presidents. Historically on the GOP side the link between presidential primary voting patterns and lower-office primary voting patterns was tighter than for the Democrats!)

A different way to put this is that part of the reason remaking the GOP is hard for Trump is that there literally just aren't other Trumps. His appeal is very singular, and even fairly close mimics like Paladino just take loss after loss.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 9 queries.