Chance of Texas voting less than R +2

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

According to Spectator, Texas will vote R +2, making the Senate race interesting. On another thread, people agree that R +2 is about the breakeven point for the Senate race.

[TodayJunior]

Plausible, yes. Likely, not sure? I have trump winning it by around 2-2.5%

[Kevin Graham]

Predicting the exact margin is hard but I do think we looking at something between R+5 to D+2.

[Dave Hedgehog]

It all depends on whether Abbott's hard-right leadership has had the effect of driving D's out of the state in droves or stoking up the D base there to come out in massive numbers and vote against Republicans. Given the margin by which he won last year, I'm leaning towards the former. My gut feeling is that Trump carries the state again by a similar margin to last time or even slightly greater (I'd be surprised if it's double digits though). I think it will take a more charismatic D candidate than Biden in better times to clinch the big W here.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol.Rs are 0/4 getting ready to be 0/5 with KY G and they are endangered in NS and LA G the Rs haven't won anything, I keep saying this GE wise since IAN in 22 that's why I have a nut map polls aren't the end all be all or else Janet Protasisaweicwz and Peltola would have lost, I keep saying this over and over it's just a primary polling bump for TRUMP we don't know what's gonna happen next yr but it's a 3o3 map with wave insurance

[Tekken_Guy]

It all depends on whether Abbott's hard-right leadership has had the effect of driving D's out of the state in droves or stoking up the D base there to come out in massive numbers and vote against Republicans. Given the margin by which he won last year, I'm leaning towards the former. My gut feeling is that Trump carries the state again by a similar margin to last time or even slightly greater (I'd be surprised if it's double digits though). I think it will take a more charismatic D candidate than Biden in better times to clinch the big W here.

I’d disagree and say that Abbott’s big win was because he was a fairly popular governor and nobody thought there was any chance of him losing in a Biden midterm - kind of like how their was no serious effort to take out DeSantis, DeWine, or Reynolds. Trump isn’t nearly as popular in TX as Abbott is, and neither is Cruz, so they won’t be getting a cakewalk in TX next year even if they’re still favored.

[Ferguson97]

According to Spectator, Texas will vote R +2, making the Senate race interesting. On another thread, people agree that R +2 is about the breakeven point for the Senate race.

I'm not sure I accept the premise that Cruz runs behind Trump.

[NOTaDemocratBUTaLeftist]

], people agree that R +2 is about the breakeven point for the Senate race.

Vibes and gut feeling, I think it's very likely. Without any math or numbers, I recall how close the Senate race between Cruz and O'Rourke was in 2018, and then Texas has been getting closer and closer between 2016 and 2020. I don't seewhy Biden can't improve his margins in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio and obtain at least 49% of the vote .... to Trump's ~50%(ish)

[Tekken_Guy]

], people agree that R +2 is about the breakeven point for the Senate race.

Vibes and gut feeling, I think it's very likely. Without any math or numbers, I recall how close the Senate race between Cruz and O'Rourke was in 2018, and then Texas has been getting closer and closer between 2016 and 2020. I don't seewhy Biden can't improve his margins in Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio and obtain at least 49% of the vote .... to Trump's ~50%(ish)

Biden can get to 49% and still win if there’s enough third-party to keep Trump at 48% or so.

[TML]

It all depends on whether Abbott's hard-right leadership has had the effect of driving D's out of the state in droves or stoking up the D base there to come out in massive numbers and vote against Republicans. Given the margin by which he won last year, I'm leaning towards the former. My gut feeling is that Trump carries the state again by a similar margin to last time or even slightly greater (I'd be surprised if it's double digits though). I think it will take a more charismatic D candidate than Biden in better times to clinch the big W here.

I’d disagree and say that Abbott’s big win was because he was a fairly popular governor and nobody thought there was any chance of him losing in a Biden midterm - kind of like how their was no serious effort to take out DeSantis, DeWine, or Reynolds. Trump isn’t nearly as popular in TX as Abbott is, and neither is Cruz, so they won’t be getting a cakewalk in TX next year even if they’re still favored.

I agree that Abbott’s win was more than his positions on the issues alone - exit polls indicated that he won 23% of voters who wanted abortion to be legal and 22% of voters who wanted stricter gun control laws, so these voters evidently voted for him on other grounds.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

About 1 in 3. Better than the odds of it going Republican by double digits (<1%), but I’d still guess a 3-point win or so for Trump is most likely.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Between 0 and 5 percent.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Incredibly unlikely in 2024.