Post your August 2024 GOP debate predictions

[Radicalneo]

Burgum does well

[Real Texan Politics]

Damn, I was about to make this thread...

Oh well, here's mine:

Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy will get the most attention since they're the highest-polling candidates. DeSantis will highlight his accomplishments as governor of Florida, while also rambling on about wokeism and such. Meanwhile, Vivek will highlight his stances on trade and the economy. I'd probably expect them to attack each other at some point, probably about anti-wokeness or whatever. Furthermore, I'd expect DeSantis to attack Trump for his role during the pandemic (lockdowns, not firing Fauci, etc), while DeSantis highlights his own role during the pandemic (reopening early, etc). DeSantis may also have to explain his recent "listless vessels" statement. On the contrary, I'd expect Vivek to be the only candidate to vocally defend Trump onstage from everyone else, which may get him some attacks from people like Christie and Hutchinson. In addition, I could see him being attacked for his Ukraine views.

Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson (now that he's in) will definitely spend most of their screen time attacking Trump, as they are by far the most anti-Trump candidates on the stage (unless Will Hurd makes it in later). Christie will definitely have the most Cheney/Kinzinger-esque attacks toward Trump, even while discussing policy, while Hutchinson will mostly echo Christie's statements without sounding as aggressive. I'd also expect Hutchinson to attack DeSantis on his culture war stances, seen as Hutchinson vetoed a bill while governor of Arkansas that would ban medical care for transgender children. I'd expect Christie to get a decent amount of screen time, while Hutchinson gets some of the least amount.

Mike Pence, despite his low polling, should get a decent amount of screen time due to being the former vice president. I'd expect him to get quite a bit of foreign policy questions, and will most likely be forced to explain his "that's not my concern" gaffe from weeks back. I'd also expect him to attack Trump for January 6th, and will surely accuse Trump of putting himself over the constitution. On the contrary, I'd expect him to be attacked (possibly by Vivek) for his foreign policy views.

Nikki Haley and Tim Scott will probably have the most generic performances onstage. I don't expect them to launch too many attacks (except maybe towards DeSantis on some culture war stuff but idk), although I could see Haley being attacked (like Pence) for her foreign policy views. I'd expect both of them to have pretty forgettable performances, and may not get as much screen time as the others mentioned (except Hutchinson).

Doug Burgum and Perry Johnson probably only get asked like one or two questions each, as they barely made it in (although the same could be said for Ryan Binkley if he somehow makes it in). Burgum will likely emphasize his energy platform, as well as his accomplishments as governor of North Dakota. Perry Johnson, on the other hand, will highly emphasize his Two Cent plan, and probably not much else. I don't see them attacking or being attacked at all. While they'll get the least amount of screen time, they could make up for it in Google searches.

Lastly, back to DeSantis: I expect him to embarrass himself badly in one way or another and possibly fall into 3rd place (behind Vivek) after.

UPDATE: So much for my Perry Johnson prediction

[dw93]

1. DeSantis falters further and takes a hit in the polls as a result
2. Vivek positions himself as the Trumpiest candidate on the stage. His polling stays the same or gets better.
3. Hutchinson, Haley, Pence, and Burgum have bland performances that don't do anything to elevate them.
4. Christie or Scott have a good debate night that boost their profile and help their poll numbers, but not nearly enough to pose a threat to Trump.

[Zenobiyl]

DeSantis crashes and burns.

Vivek fends off an attack from one of the minor candidates.

Christie attacks DeSantis, possibly over trump.

Someone attacks Burgum and Suarez for the gift card trick.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

There's no pt to to these GOP debates it's a 303 map we all know what Rs are up to get in and want to to keep the Trump tax cuts in place for the richest  people, Poor people taxes shouldn't be raised but Rich already pays high property taxes they can afford the tax increase, tax cuts are expiring g next

That's why they are trying to pass 5M in reparations CA has a high property tax on millionaire yr

SLOTKIN, Brown. tester, Casey and Baldwin are gonna win anyways

[Encampment Supporters for Globalizing the Intifada]

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[Sir Mohamed]

Trump is going to win big league 'cuz he'll be the last man standing in August 2024.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As I said Rs are DOOMED, it's a 303 map with OH as the swing state

Rich people taxes are gonna be 70 percentage pts and electric vehicles because the growth of SSDI

Conserv were never gonna keep 35 percentage tax and 20 percentage pts Corporate taxes, but poor people are gonna keep their tax low

[Reactionary Libertarian]

-Vivek does well
-RDS crashes and burns
-Pence supports national abortion ban
-Everyone attacks RDS

[indietraveler]

I won't be watching, but nothing changes Trump's frontrunner status.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

In descending order of confidence:

-DeSantis comes out of the debate worse than he went into it
-Burgum comes out of the debate better than he went into it
-Trump's poll numbers in early primary states go down after the debate.
-Christie comes out of the debate better than he went into it

[Andrew Cuomo is a No Go]

DeSantis does not impress. He continues to stagnate at about his current level and his polling does not get any boost.

Ramaswamy doesn't have an outstanding performance but he benefits from a national audience. His polling average moves up a bit, but he does not surpass DeSantis (except in online polling).

Scott has a decent performance, mostly sidestepping questions about Trump's legal troubles, and presenting himself as a scandal-free competent conservative who largely agrees with Trump's policies. Substantial bump after the debate.

Haley will be forgettable. She will spend more time attacking Joe Biden than any of her peers on (or off) stage. No change.

Christie comes out blasting and lands a few big hits. He ultimately won't be able to overcome his low ceiling though. Small bump, if anything.

Asa Hutchinson gets little attention and doesn't come away with any memorable moments. His support (such as any exists) goes to near 0 as his supporters move towards Pence or Christie

Mike Pence is put in the position of having to both defend the policies of the former administration from attacks from the likes of Christie and Hutchinson, as well as defending himself from the attacks of the more closely Trump-aligned candidates. He does about as well as could be expected, but does not move much in the polls.

Perry Johnson continues to poll at the sampling error level. I am almost certain he just got in because "Johnson" is a common last name and a few low-info poll respondents assumed he was someone else.

The Based Chad Governor Doug Burgum utterly dominates the field. He points to his own experience as a successful businessman and relative political outsider, as well as the immense economic growth the State of North Dakota has experienced under his watch. He rises into third place, if not second, following the debate.

Trump takes a bit of a hit as people are exposed to some of the other candidates and some peel off, but he maintains a substantial lead.

[Progressive Pessimist]

-DeSantis has a Rubiobot moment and every candidate throws at least one jab at him. He also makes a subtle bigoted comment about Ramaswamy as he desperately tries to go after him.
-Ramaswamy gets the most applause and acts close to a Trump proxy.
-Christie lambasts everybody except for Hutchinson and Pence. Gets booed the most, but welcomes it.
-The word "woke," or variations on it, is said collectively at least 100 times.
-Hutchinson leaves the Trump criticisms to Christie and may only tepidly attack Trump.
-Pence comes across as nervous in having to defend his time as Trump's Vice President but also stand up for himself, and will try to avoid or change the subject of January 6 and Trump as much as he can.
-Scott brings up his race and repeats "Democrats are the real racist party" talking points.
-Haley makes absolutely no impact whatsoever.
-Burgum comes across as technocratic and dull but receives attention for his appearance by the media in the days after. Creates memes.
-Little to no actual policy will be discussed by anyone other than Burgum and Hutchinson maybe, and the debate will mostly concern throwing red meat to the base over culture war horses***.

If Perry Johnson were still in the debate I would have said that he would make some sort of really weird comment that gains a lot of attention, but not the good kind.

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't want to make a very specific prediction, though I have a feeling that Christie is going to moop the floor with DeSandwich after latter defends Trump. Whether that helps Christie in polling over the long run is another question, though it will cause DeSandwich's chances to dwindle even further.

[Spiral]

My bingo card, in keeping with tradition:

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Life imitates art:

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1694172954513351021

[oldtimer]

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This is a very good bingo card.

[Zedonathin2020]

I was going to suggest that people should take a shot every time Meatball DeSandwich says the word "woke", but then I realized I don’t wanna be responsible for anybody on Atlas dying of Alcohol Poisoning

[MABA 2020]

I think Christie and Vivek come off best, DeSantis comes off worst and continues his decline.

[Encampment Supporters for Globalizing the Intifada]

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Life imitates art:

https://twitter.com/mtgreenee/status/1694172954513351021

Ok, real talk time: Who here is a staffer for Margie?

[Ferguson97]

Ok, real talk time: Who here is a staffer for Margie?

My money's on Cody