Why did Bush win Ohio?
electionsguy259:
Although Ohio would be the critical state in the 2004 presidential election, I'm curious about its role in the 2000 election. Bush won the state by 3.51%, a larger margin than he would win it by four years later- despite the fact that he lost the popular vote in 2000 and won it in 2004.
Sumner 1868:
A combination of good margins for Bush in suburbia and a bad showing for Gore in the southern part of the state. Democrats also wrote off the state in mid-October after believing unreliable polls showing Bush with a massive lead.
TDAS04:
Ohio has consistently voted more Republican the nation as whole going back through 1924, with a small number of exceptions. As one of those exceptions, 2004 was more of an outlier than 2004.
As for why the 2004 vote in Ohio was unusually Democratic relative to the NPV, I’m not completely sure, but I remember the media placed an intense focus on the state. Pundits seemed to think that Ohio and the rustbelt in general were Kerry’s best opportunity deny Bush an EV victory, due to economic concerns in the region. Then of course, Kerry campaigned hard in Ohio and many people believed he had the edge in the state going into Election Day. I remember commentators predicting that Bush would lose Ohio, but make up for it and win the election by flipping Wisconsin and Minnesota!
Frozen Sky Ever Why:
Exit polls showed it was gun owners that gave the edge to Bush, according to CNN coverage.
wnwnwn:
Hamilton County still leaned republican. Clinton won the state with support of southern counties which have voted republican since 2000.
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