Does any state swing by more than 6 points?

[Radicalneo]

In either direction

[ProgressiveModerate]

Statistically yes this is extremely likely, even if few people switch votes overall. In 2020 for instance, 8 states (VT, CO, DE, NH, MD, CT, MA and ME) had a swing over 6 points.

Most likely states are prolly relatively small homogenous white states in New England or the Plains. AK and HI are other strong contenders.

[Ferguson97]

Likeliest contenders would be either Utah or Florida to the right, or Alaska or Texas to the left.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Utah, Kansas and maybe Alaska to the left.
Maine, New Hampshire and Florida to the right.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Likeliest contenders would be either Utah or Florida to the right, or Alaska or Texas to the left.

Texas is underrated; it swung like 8 points left from 2012 to 2016. Biden kept up suburban gains of similar magnitude but the hard right swing in certain Hispanic communities meant in the end we only got a 3 point swing from 2016 to 2020.

If Biden gets another swing of simillar magnitude out of suburban Texas AND minorities stay constant or even revert a bit, a large swing is def possible. Also, if Dems are able to increase turnout dynamics in their favor by activating more urban Black and Hispanic voters.

[SaneDemocrat]

Yes

[DS0816]

If the outcome for 2024 U.S. President will be a Democratic hold, and supposing a national outcome of +5 with a pickup of North Carolina and 319 electoral votes and a party hold for U.S. Senate, it would not be surprising if Montana shifts +6 in the Democrats’s direction. This would be of more help to holding the state’s scheduled U.S. Senate seat in the party’s column.

A +6 shift of Texas would flip the state to the 2024 Democrats. It was in the 2020 Republicans’s column by +5.58 percentage points. This would require the party to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +6.

Other scenarios involving states with a +6 shift, compared to 2020, would mean a Republican pickup for U.S. President. And this include 2024 Republican pickups for both Minnesota (D+7.11) and New Hampshire (D+7.35). It would also apply to a number of states which would be 2020-to-2024 Republican holds.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Even during the Gilded Age political stagnation of 1880-1884-1888 - when the popular vote was within 1% nationally in three consecutive elections - there was always at least one state that swung more than 6% between elections. Would be hard to believe there won't be *something* that swings equally hard from 2020 to 2024, though I'm not going to make a guess as to what it will be.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes it will be West Virginia.

Which direction?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida to the right at the very least.

[Alben Barkley]

Yes it will be West Virginia.

Which direction?

To the right.  That is Trump country up there.

West Virginia is completely maxed out for the GOP. I expect it will be roughly static, with Monongalia County flipping to the Democrats actually.

Kentucky meanwhile will trend left, with Franklin County flipping D and even possibly Woodford County.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Yes it will be West Virginia.

Which direction?

To the right.  That is Trump country up there.

West Virginia is completely maxed out for the GOP. I expect it will be roughly static, with Monongalia County flipping to the Democrats actually.

Kentucky meanwhile will trend left, with Franklin County flipping D and even possibly Woodford County.

West Virginia could become the Republican version of DC. People up there in recent years have been trending more right wing at the Presidential level. The Democratic Party has turned a lot of the residents off due to the decline in the coal industry.

This has been going on for over two decades. I really don't think there's much more juice the R's can squeeze out of the state with every county going red in presidential elections. I think Monongalia County going blue next year is more likely than Trump cracking 70% there (though I wouldn't be shocked if both happen).

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Trump received 68% of the vote in WV in 2020. I can't imagine it swinging another 6 points to 74%. A 6% swing is pretty wild, especially in the polarized environment we're in right now. I doubt we'll see that if it's still Trump v. Biden.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Trump received 68% of the vote in WV in 2020. I can't imagine it swinging another 6 points to 74%. A 6% swing is pretty wild, especially in the polarized environment we're in right now. I doubt we'll see that if it's still Trump v. Biden.

Okay, I guess now is a good time to ask: What are we counting as a 6 point swing? Because to me a state going from 68-29 to 74-23 would be a 12-point swing, because the margin moves 12 percentage points. If that's what is counting as a 6 point swing then it's significantly harder to imagine that happening basically anywhere.

[Radicalneo]

Trump received 68% of the vote in WV in 2020. I can't imagine it swinging another 6 points to 74%. A 6% swing is pretty wild, especially in the polarized environment we're in right now. I doubt we'll see that if it's still Trump v. Biden.

Okay, I guess now is a good time to ask: What are we counting as a 6 point swing? Because to me a state going from 68-29 to 74-23 would be a 12-point swing, because the margin moves 12 percentage points. If that's what is counting as a 6 point swing then it's significantly harder to imagine that happening basically anywhere.

68-29 to 71-26 is 6 points

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

OH/FL

[Mr. Smith]

Utah perhaps...towards Biden.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Likeliest contenders would be either Utah or Florida to the right, or Alaska or Texas to the left.

Texas is underrated; it swung like 8 points left from 2012 to 2016. Biden kept up suburban gains of similar magnitude but the hard right swing in certain Hispanic communities meant in the end we only got a 3 point swing from 2016 to 2020.

If Biden gets another swing of simillar magnitude out of suburban Texas AND minorities stay constant or even revert a bit, a large swing is def possible. Also, if Dems are able to increase turnout dynamics in their favor by activating more urban Black and Hispanic voters.

The only reason Texas swung so big in 2016 was because in the early 2010s the GOP was doing way too well in places like Houston that there was a big drop incoming. Harris county was only like 30% non hispanic white and was pretty much a lean R county as recently as the early 2010s. (Obama won it by less than 1k votes, Cruz won it, and Cornyn and Abbott easily carried in in 2014). Taking Harris county from a tie to D+12 was much easier than it will be to take it from D+13 to D+20.

[Skill and Chance]

The chance of Hawaii voting like 2004 is now pretty substantial.

[Vosem]

Statistically, yes.

Are there really multiple more points of easy gains for Texas Democrats in large-city suburbs? I can imagine their growth continuing to fuel gains over time, but I don't think there's many more voters to mobilize. The 2022 pattern was of a strong Republican suburban recovery in the South, even as bad performances continued to hold across the North and in some metropolitan areas (particularly historically-conservative ones like Cincinnati or Grand Rapids) Democrats really did record better-than-2018 performances.

The Republican swing across the RGV was impressive on the map but the populations in those counties are very small, and turnout remained pretty low by national standards. The state voted Trump+5 because suburbs didn't swing any further.