Chance of Pennsylvania voting more than R +3 in 2024

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Skill and Chance and one of Biden's campaign consultants agree that Pennsylvania will trend right the most out of the WI, MI, PA trio.

[wbrocks67]

A rightward trend doesn't make much sense in Pennsylvania. As has been said, there isn't that many places where the GOP is actively growing their vote. They definitely can get a few more votes out of blood red counties, but the problem for them is that those are not vote rich areas and are most of the areas that are actively *losing* residents. The parts of the state that are increasing in population (Allegheny, Philly suburbs, Cumberland County, etc.) are all getting more Democratic.

The only decent sized counties that the GOP are growing in are Berks and Luzerne, as Dems continue to lose some of their ancestral strength in the latter. Lackawanna and Erie have held up surprisingly well in the last 7 years for Dems.

If Trump is the nominee, you activate a lot of the most rural/red counties, but you also risk the GOP falling even further in a lot of the vote rich counties. Most troublesome is likely Allegheny, actually, since Biden won it by 20, but Fetterman even won it by nearly 30, and Shapiro, 40. It's zooming leftward.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Southwest Pennsylvania still doesn't vote as red as the adjacent Appalachia counties in WV/OH.

[Devils30]

At this point I'm not sure any GOP gains in Fayette, Greene, Washington won't be more than cancelled by Democratic trends in Alleghany.

[Skill and Chance]

At this point I'm not sure any GOP gains in Fayette, Greene, Washington won't be more than cancelled by Democratic trends in Alleghany.

Fetterman was from Allegheny, though.  That can't be overlooked.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a senator in ages.

[wbrocks67]

At this point I'm not sure any GOP gains in Fayette, Greene, Washington won't be more than cancelled by Democratic trends in Alleghany.

Fetterman was from Allegheny, though.  That can't be overlooked.  Pittsburgh hasn't had a senator in ages.

It's not just Fetterman; Allegheny has been getting bluer and bluer. Even in 2021's municipal election, the D got +25%, 5% above Biden's 2020 margin.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Southwest Pennsylvania still doesn't vote as red as the adjacent Appalachia counties in WV/OH.

Washington, Beaver, Westmoreland, and Fayette are all more urbanized than their WV/OH neighbors (so is Butler, but Butler is ancestrally Republican). Greene is the most direct comparison and had the most extreme Democratic collapse from 2000 to the present.

[Senator Incitatus]

<15%. If Trump wins PA, it will be narrow.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Maybe about 15%?

Pennsylvania is a very polarized swing state and I think both parties have high floors federally with today's coalitions. I think either side running away with PA would take a pretty extreme scenario, and I think if there is a national landslide Presidentially, PA's result would still be underwhelming considering.

Tbf though, you have examples such as the 2022 Gov result, but that was not a heavily polarized federal election.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

No, stop it with this PA going R Bob Casey Jr is on the ballot and usually wins by 8

How much did Wolf and Bob Casey Jr wn by in 2018 18 pts