Rate Michigan

[GeorgiaModerate]

Inspired by a comment in a polling thread that the take on this site is that Michigan is Safe D.  I don't believe this is true, but let's get some actual votes and see.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D.

As of today, I would say Biden +4.

[wbrocks67]

Lean D.

As of today, I would say Biden +4.

Yeah this sounds about right.

[Redban]

Inspired by a comment in a polling thread that the take on this site is that Michigan is Safe D.  I don't believe this is true, but let's get some actual votes and see.

^ starting the thread off this way, everyone is going to change tunes and repeat Lean D just to say “aha! The Republican poster on this site was wrong!”

  the consensus on this site has been that Michigan is gone for the Repubs in 2024: the arguments center on the midterm results, the local GOP party, the larger swing in 2020 compared to PA and WI, and other factors. I’ve heard on this site (more than once) the claim that “Trump’s 2016 won in Michigan was the equivalent of Obama’s 2008 win in Indiana”

Nobody on this site has said Michigan is safe D to the extent that Massachusetts or California are. But nobody on this site says Michigan is toss-up / battleground, as the polling data indicates . The consensus is that the state should be written off as a Biden automatic state from the start

[wbrocks67]

Inspired by a comment in a polling thread that the take on this site is that Michigan is Safe D.  I don't believe this is true, but let's get some actual votes and see.

^ starting the thread off this way, everyone is going to change tunes and repeat Lean D just to say “aha! The Republican poster on this site was wrong!”

  the consensus on this site has been that Michigan is gone for the Repubs in 2024: the arguments center on the midterm results, the local GOP party, the larger swing in 2020 compared to PA and WI, and other factors. I’ve heard on this site (more than once) the claim that “Trump’s 2016 won in Michigan was the equivalent of Obama’s 2008 win in Indiana”

Nobody on this site has said Michigan is safe D to the extent that Massachusetts or California are. But nobody on this site says Michigan is toss-up / battleground, as the polling data indicates . The consensus is that the state should be written off as a Biden automatic state from the start

sis you tried it but nah

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Donald Trump by around a 50,000 vote margin. Elissa Slotkin I think will underperform Joe Biden however and lose by around 60,000 votes though.

[Del Tachi]

Well, the most recent GE polls out of Michigan are D+1, R+2, D+1 and D+2.

That sounds like Tossup/Tilt D territory to me.

While, yes, MI is probably the most D-friendly of the Rust Belt trio, its absolute difference between it and PA/WI is insignificant.  It has and will always be more likely that MI/PA/WI all vote the same way than split among themselves. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tossup/tilt D.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

The polling alone suggests Tilt D, but I expect the national political situation to shift in favor of the Dems by next November. Given that, Lean D.

[Podgy the Bear]

Lean D for now.  It's 15 months away--we have the ongoing Trump s...tshow and a broke and nonfunctioning statewide Republican situation in Michigan.  It will be in the Democratic column in November 2024--and projected earlier than 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt to lean D.

Biden probably wins around 4.5 points at most.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Lean D. It’s definitely competitive, but Biden would have to be having a pretty bad night to lose it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Inspired by a comment in a polling thread that the take on this site is that Michigan is Safe D.  I don't believe this is true, but let's get some actual votes and see.

^ starting the thread off this way, everyone is going to change tunes and repeat Lean D just to say “aha! The Republican poster on this site was wrong!”

  the consensus on this site has been that Michigan is gone for the Repubs in 2024: the arguments center on the midterm results, the local GOP party, the larger swing in 2020 compared to PA and WI, and other factors. I’ve heard on this site (more than once) the claim that “Trump’s 2016 won in Michigan was the equivalent of Obama’s 2008 win in Indiana”

Nobody on this site has said Michigan is safe D to the extent that Massachusetts or California are. But nobody on this site says Michigan is toss-up / battleground, as the polling data indicates . The consensus is that the state should be written off as a Biden automatic state from the start

I agree comparing MI 2016 to IN 2008 isn't exactly fair; Indiana was truly a safe R state both pre and post 2008 whereas MI was and continues to be competitive (albeit, generally D leaning).

Imo, MI starts out as lean D for 2024 because on modern political coalitions, Dems path is much clearer; get good enough black turnout, do well in college towns, and maintain your 2020 numbers in places like Oakland County and Kent County. Any improvement in suburbs likely just pads the margins, and Given Biden won the state by 2.8%, you have a bit of wiggle room anyways.

Trump's 2016 win on the other hand was a combination of a lot of factors coming together at the right time. Most of rural and working class Michigan lurched hard right, but Republicans hadn't become toxic to most of the state's "well-to-do" suburbs yet. Furthermore, you had Trump putting up strong performances in a bunch of mid-sized and smaller cities throughout the state many of which seem to be moving away from the GOP post-2016.

In order for a Republican to win MI statewide federally, they'll have to actively find communities to make up for the losses in places like Kent and Oakland Counties. Dems just have to maintain their current coalition (with a bit of wiggle room) and they'll be fine.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tossup

[Alben Barkley]

I'm gonna be bold and say the state that just elected a Democratic trifecta in what was supposed to be a "red wave" midterm year (and actually did appear to be so in ostensibly much "bluer" AND much "redder" states like New York and Florida), including the governor by an increased double digit margin and other double digit landslides in all statewide offices and the first time the Democrats took total control of the state government in 40 years, at LEAST leans Dem nowadays.

Brave, I know.

I might even go so far as to say that a state that resoundingly rejected the GOP's abortion policy in that same year and which just barely voted for Trump 7 years ago by the skin of its teeth in the closest election in the nation that year probably won't do so again short of a GOP landslide.

All jokes aside, Biden DID underperform in Michigan relative to expectations and in comparison to everything I just said. But for reasons others in this thread have nicely explained, the advantage certainly lies with him in MI anyway. The GOP has to draw an inside straight to win again, basically, while the Dems simply have to hold on.

[Alben Barkley]

Well, the most recent GE polls out of Michigan are D+1, R+2, D+1 and D+2.

That sounds like Tossup/Tilt D territory to me.

While, yes, MI is probably the most D-friendly of the Rust Belt trio, its absolute difference between it and PA/WI is insignificant.  It has and will always be more likely that MI/PA/WI all vote the same way than split among themselves.  

Wisconsin re-elected a Republican senator and only narrowly re-elected their Democratic governor in 2022 while Democrats mopped up in Michigan. Pennsylvania was a bit of a different story due to historically bad Republican candidates in their statewide races, but even still, in Michigan Dems actually took complete control while they did not quite do so in PA.