August 2023: Who wins the presidency?

[MATTROSE94]

Big Don with the 295 NUT map.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the election was this Tuesday, according to the opinion polls the Electoral College would be a repeat of 2016 except Georgia and Nevada swap, and the Popular Vote a tie probably at 48-48.

And that's has been a very stable picture.

Of course economic fundementals scream a Biden re-election, however voters tend to vote with a large time delay and the Biden Administration is not exactly behaving strong and stable this year.

If this was January 2024 I would probably bet against a Biden re-election, but it's August 2023.

If Trump wins all but one of his 2016 states I’d bet on Michigan being the one that gets away, not Georgia.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

If the election was this Tuesday, according to the opinion polls the Electoral College would be a repeat of 2016 except Georgia and Nevada swap, and the Popular Vote a tie probably at 48-48.

And that's has been a very stable picture.

Of course economic fundementals scream a Biden re-election, however voters tend to vote with a large time delay and the Biden Administration is not exactly behaving strong and stable this year.

If this was January 2024 I would probably bet against a Biden re-election, but it's August 2023.

If Trump wins all but one of his 2016 states I’d bet on Michigan being the one that gets away, not Georgia.

Same.

[TodayJunior]

Still Biden, always will be Biden, and he flips North Carolina.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There seems to be a big campaign here to convince people that Biden is not favoured, even though he is doing fairly well according to state polls and has the incumbency advantage. He wins.

For f***'s sake! Thank you!

[ShadowRocket]

Biden defeats Trump by a narrower margin in the popular vote and Electoral College than in 2020.

Wow

May I ask what is so ridiculous about my post?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

There seems to be a big campaign here to convince people that Biden is not favoured, even though he is doing fairly well according to state polls and has the incumbency advantage. He wins.

Biden has lost 4 points relative to 2020 from national polls, and is likely to lose more when the economy crashes next year due to high interest rates. Even state polls right now aren't great for Biden: Michigan is pure tossup, Arizona shows Trump up by 2, and Trump's up in Georgia as well. Quinnipiac and Emerson both have Trump +1 in PA, though Emerson is way out of date.

Incumbency is only an advantage when your record is good. It could easily lead to Tom Corbett.

[Epaminondas]

Biden has lost 4 points relative to 2020 from national polls

Are polls following exactly the same method as back then, or have there been any shocking results since October 2020 that might have affected how they are carried out?
Just asking.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden has lost 4 points relative to 2020 from national polls

Are polls following exactly the same method as back then, or have there been any shocking results since October 2020 that might have affected how they are carried out?
Just asking.

Biden has lost 8 points relative to 2020 in polling. I'm assuming polls are accurate this time. If they were following the method they used last time, I would have to add 4 points to Trump.

[Zedonathin2020]

Biden 2020 + NC, as I've been saying the last 6 times I've seen threads like this