August 2023: Who wins the presidency?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who do you think wins the presidency as of August 2023?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden it's not if it's how many EC votes I love to see this, everything that should of happened in 2016 is gonna happen in 24 the difference is Merrick Garland and a Secular Congress

That's why I put back my nut map because a 232 DH and 53 S S is inevitable even Fox news has Biden ahead

There is nothing to Hunter Biden but Gun charge and his tax charges have been dropped

[Consuming is good, it's what we're made for]

The president.

[dw93]

Biden with the 2020 map give or take a state or two.

[Ferguson97]

The guy who doesn't have four indictments.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden with the 2020 map give or take a state or two.

You know the 2008/12/18 waves didn't happen until Oct  of Eday 2012 sandy and 2018 when  41 seats

The reason why 2008 was so big we already had 230DH expanded it to 255 and had 53 S Seats expanded it to 6o,due  to wave of 2006 so with 232 DH and 54/46 DS, TN, TX, FL, MO is winnable in a 52/45 Eday, we don't need 60/40 to win a Landslide we won 52/45 in 2008

Monmouth+7 Biden exact number we won in 2008, the reason why Hawaii fires aren't detriment for Biden MORE REGULATIONS NOT LESS IN A POST PANDEMIC WORLD

[Redban]

Poll option #3

[PSOL]

For some reason, I’m not believing the polls and still giving Biden the benefit of the doubt

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

There seems to be a big campaign here to convince people that Biden is not favoured, even though he is doing fairly well according to state polls and has the incumbency advantage. He wins.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Right now? Trump.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Nothing yet has happened to change my view that Biden is a narrow favorite for now.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Right now? Trump.

LOL he is losing in every poll denialism isn't realistic , he wants to Deregulation of everything the reason why Maui isn't Katrina and IAN helped DeSantis due to regulations of everything in a Pandemic the same sympathy vote is gonna fall on Biden as it did on DeSantis as well as Obama on SANDY

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden is the most likely as of today.




No tossups:

[I love MAGA, don’t send me to the camps]

Right now I would say Biden, with 2016 Clinton states - NV + NE-02, MI, AZ, GA, WI. A minor victory. He wins pop vote by about the same as last time, ~3-4.

[MABA 2020]

Optimistically going to say narrow Biden victory

[ShadowRocket]

Biden defeats Trump by a narrower margin in the popular vote and Electoral College than in 2020.

[SaneDemocrat]

Biden defeats Trump by a narrower margin in the popular vote and Electoral College than in 2020.

Wow

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden defeats Trump by a narrower margin in the popular vote and Electoral College than in 2020.

Lol a blue wave isn't 60 a blue wave is 52l48 or 52/45 I keep saying this and it happens in Oct 24 not 15 months

Forget about WI and PA we won those May 23 already

Pundry isn't gonna move off of 303 map but it's called user PRED because the rest is wave insurance

[GenerationTerrorist]

Biden, 2020 map plus Texas.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Trump as of today.

[oldtimer]

If the election was this Tuesday, according to the opinion polls the Electoral College would be a repeat of 2016 except Georgia and Nevada swap, and the Popular Vote a tie probably at 48-48.

And that's has been a very stable picture.

Of course economic fundementals scream a Biden re-election, however voters tend to vote with a large time delay and the Biden Administration is not exactly behaving strong and stable this year.

If this was January 2024 I would probably bet against a Biden re-election, but it's August 2023.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Probably Biden, but hard to know the margin given the very difficult-to-gauge factor of Trump's criminal trials. Still a decent chance (1/3 chance or thereabouts?) Trump wins just because he'll be the nominee of a major party in a closely-divided country.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Biden, 2020 map plus Texas.

Texas but not North Carolina? That's a fun map.

[Crumpets]

Incumbent presidents have the advantage until multiple polls show their challenger ahead in enough states to hit 270 after Labor Day of election year (or at least after the primaries are over), and I would have said the same thing in August 2019.

[Mr. Smith]

It's Biden for now, but until the GE begins in earnest next year, it doesn't really matter.

After all, Trump was pretty much favored until COVID. Hillary easily had the plot until she took a vacation in August and let the Ohiowa out of grasp, and was pretty much behind when she passed out. Obama was prohibitive 'til he slipped the first debate and lost NC for good, then it got competitive.