[November 7, 2023] Ohio Abortion Referendum Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1717178037781856547

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717695336989266171

[WalterWhite]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717695336989266171

It appears as if Cuyahoga, Lorain, Summit, Mahoning, Lucas, Franklin, Montgomery, and Hamilton Counties are coming in strong in the early vote.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1717902778209575207

[politicallefty]

This poll is rather odd, but it does ask the ultimate question. It runs the question different ways with different samples, but ultimately comes out with a 60-40 Yes result when using the ballot language. (Other language yields a 69-31 Yes vote.) Even the most favourable result for the pro-life side ended up with a 52-36 Yes result. This poll also finds support for Dobbs at 31-57.

[Mr. Matt]

Is there any chance this could pass with >60% yes vote, solely for the irony of having the legislature go head-over-heels to get that first failed amendment to a vote trying to raise the threshold to 60% to pass?

[Germany1994]

Which county will have the biggest Yes vote?? Probably Athens, right??

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any chance this could pass with >60% yes vote, solely for the irony of having the legislature go head-over-heels to get that first failed amendment to a vote trying to raise the threshold to 60% to pass?

It's unlikely.

[Person Man]

Is there any chance this could pass with >60% yes vote, solely for the irony of having the legislature go head-over-heels to get that first failed amendment to a vote trying to raise the threshold to 60% to pass?

It's unlikely.

I’m open to it not being a total blow out, but it will be a convincing win. There is an equal nonzero possibility that people are lying and it’s either really close (or the amendment gets voted down like a raise for school teachers) or that we’re eating crow because we didn’t believe the polls.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

[wbrocks67]

PPP has YES leading on Issue 1, 55-38

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1718997391108444385

[Person Man]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

Maybe because they already started going after doctors in this state?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

Maybe because they already started going after doctors in this state?

The state has a more conservative electorate though.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I could see it getting 60 percent or more.

Democratic counties mail ballot requests have increased by a lot, in Franklin County they are twice as high as in August, and Republican counties have virtually no increases.

[Person Man]

PPP has YES leading on Issue 1, 55-38

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1718997391108444385

Maybe YES will only get 54% or something.

[Person Man]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

Maybe because they already started going after doctors in this state?

The state has a more conservative electorate though.

But it might not be a linear shift.

[wbrocks67]

Feels like Republicans have given up at this point:

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1719351348884357310

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I wouldn't be surprised if the cannabis measure is closer than the abortion measure

[Old Man Willow]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

But the MI referendum was on the midterm ballot, so there was higher turnout. This is an off year election with lower turnout which will benefit the pro-choice side. Even though KS is more conservative than MI the pro-choice side won by more in KS than MI last year because the KS referendum was in August instead of November.

[WalterWhite]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

But the MI referendum was on the midterm ballot, so there was higher turnout. This is an off year election with lower turnout which will benefit the pro-choice side. Even though KS is more conservative than MI the pro-choice side won by more in KS than MI last year because the KS referendum was in August instead of November.

Why would lower voter turnout benefit the pro-choice side?

[Person Man]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

But the MI referendum was on the midterm ballot, so there was higher turnout. This is an off year election with lower turnout which will benefit the pro-choice side. Even though KS is more conservative than MI the pro-choice side won by more in KS than MI last year because the KS referendum was in August instead of November.

Why would lower voter turnout benefit the pro-choice side?

I assume only more educated voters are showing up?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It only passed by 13 in Michigan, and Ohio is a much more conservative state. I struggle to see how it does better here.

But the MI referendum was on the midterm ballot, so there was higher turnout. This is an off year election with lower turnout which will benefit the pro-choice side. Even though KS is more conservative than MI the pro-choice side won by more in KS than MI last year because the KS referendum was in August instead of November.

Kansas wasn't comparable because the sides were swapped where abortion was no and on the defense.

[wbrocks67]

Looking verryyyyy similar to the August EV from L2:

8/5 — 479K (50.3% Dem, 41.1% Rep)
8/7 — 569K (49.6% Dem, 40.8% Rep)

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719806389306986649

[politicallefty]

Which county will have the biggest Yes vote?? Probably Athens, right??

It's possible, but I think that's unlikely. If you use the August election as a baseline (yes, I know it's not the same thing, but it does provide some real numbers), Cuyahoga (23-77) and Franklin (25-75) had bigger margins than Athens (29-71). Of course, one major difference is that college is currently in session. Franklin has the massive college that is Ohio State University and Athens itself is a college town county. I wouldn't be surprised to see Athens County have the highest Yes margin on the marijuana initiative though.

I think the counties to watch on Tuesday will be Lake, Portage, and Wood. The first two voted to the left of the state as a whole in August, while Wood was just barely to the right of the statewide margin. If Yes isn't winning 2/3 (especially Lake), an upset is definitely possible. On the other hand, if Yes is holding some of the <55% No counties from August (such as Medina, Geauga, or Stark), it should be an easy victory. Any flips from No to Yes (which seems unlikely) would mean a huge victory for Yes, indicating a serious suburban revolt against Dobbs.

[Oryxslayer]

Which county will have the biggest Yes vote?? Probably Athens, right??

It's possible, but I think that's unlikely. If you use the August election as a baseline (yes, I know it's not the same thing, but it does provide some real numbers), Cuyahoga (23-77) and Franklin (25-75) had bigger margins than Athens (29-71). Of course, one major difference is that college is currently in session. Franklin has the massive college that is Ohio State University and Athens itself is a college town county. I wouldn't be surprised to see Athens County have the highest Yes margin on the marijuana initiative though.

I think the counties to watch on Tuesday will be Lake, Portage, and Wood. The first two voted to the left of the state as a whole in August, while Wood was just barely to the right of the statewide margin. If Yes isn't winning 2/3 (especially Lake), an upset is definitely possible. On the other hand, if Yes is holding some of the <55% No counties from August (such as Medina, Geauga, or Stark), it should be an easy victory. Any flips from No to Yes (which seems unlikely) would mean a huge victory for Yes, indicating a serious suburban revolt against Dobbs.

I would not totally dismiss the idea that there are counties that voted Yes to reform the constitution last time (I assume this is what you meant) that go for Yes again, even if the margins narrow from August. Cause the two questions could see regional variation, and there were six suburban counties last time that had 51-49 margins or narrower - three on the Yes side and three on the side of No. If say hypothetically, the South and West got more anti-Abortion from August, and the North and Center got more pro-Abortion, then some Columbus and Dayton suburban counties might flip in opposite directions.

Obviously though, all this talk of region variations is predicated on this referendum getting close to the August referendums's results. If we end up somewhere like 52-48 then counties will only be going in one direction, even if there are regional variations in support levels under the hood.