[November 7, 2023] Ohio Abortion Referendum Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they will repeal the marijuana legalization immediately.  

They said they plan on adjusting where the taxes go and have a THC limit.

They have to know that attempting a full repeal will just encourage a binding initiative in 2024, and one that'll probably pass overwhelmingly thanks to going against the voters initial decision. If they need to tinker with it to get the law to service their interests, and thats how the one squares the circle, then let them do it. If you hold a referendum on an issue under pre-established rules, then you shouldn't be able to move the goalposts and say the voters got it wrong.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The exit polling showed a strict divergence on age in terms of the Yes vote:

18-24: 86%
25-29: 82%
30-39: 72%
40-49: 64%
50-64: 50%
65+: 40%

I think you may have misunderstood my point. Yeah, older people are more outrightly against legalizing recreational marijuana. There's no question about that.

I would have voted in favor of legalized recreational marijuana in this referendum. However, that doesn't mean that I am 100% comfortable with marijuana use and the social negatives that come with it like I said. I'm definitely not the only who feels this way. Many "Yes" voters feel the same way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they will repeal the marijuana legalization immediately. 

They said they plan on adjusting where the taxes go and have a THC limit.

The easy solution is to pass Issue 2 again verbatim as a Constitutional amendment

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The exit polls say that the electorate yesterday was Biden +2 in 2020.  We would have lost both referendums regardless, but we clearly have an off-year turnout problem when a Biden +2 electorate shows up in a Trump +8 state.

[Skill and Chance]

How did the November abortion referendum compare to the August 60% threshold referendum by county?

Looks like there were at least some counties that were both pro-60% and pro-choice, generally in outer suburb.  Perhaps libertarian types worried about tax increases by referendum?

I think there was only one anti-60% and pro-life county.

[Badger]

The exit polls say that the electorate yesterday was Biden +2 in 2020.  We would have lost both referendums regardless, but we clearly have an off-year turnout problem when a Biden +2 electorate shows up in a Trump +8 state.

I suspect that's self-selection when polls taken soon after election show number of respondents planning to have voted for the winning candidate being tangibly higher than the vote share said candidate actually won. Polls showed a broad overwhelming support for both issue 1 and issue 2, even substantially more so than the actual results. This indicates if anything the turnout problem is among aggressives who support these initiatives.

[WalterWhite]

Which county will have the biggest Yes vote?? Probably Athens, right??

It will probably be Cuyahoga.

That's certainly possible. I'm thinking it will probably be Franklin though.

It was Cuyahoga.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Going into Tuesday, I wonder how many folks expected the abortion measure to be more anticlimactic than cannabis.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1723045326863364336

[CityofSinners]

The idea to strip courts of jurisdiction over abortion is bonkers. Like how would you even convict anyone of breaking abortion laws if the court has no jurisdiction?

[Skill and Chance]

The idea to strip courts of jurisdiction over abortion is bonkers. Like how would you even convict anyone of breaking abortion laws if the court has no jurisdiction?

Insane that Republicans would want to get into the business of state legislatures ignoring courts in this environment.  If this becomes the standard, possession of a firearm is going to be a felony in the West Coast and NE states in a few years and there will be nothing anyone can do about it. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The idea to strip courts of jurisdiction over abortion is bonkers. Like how would you even convict anyone of breaking abortion laws if the court has no jurisdiction?

Even the OH SC would never uphold such a blatant assault on the concept of judicial review.  Deters probably would and DeWine might, but I doubt Fischer or even Kennedy would hesitate one second before unambiguously slapping this down.  And that’s assuming such a law can even get through the legislature and that Mike DeWine would sign it, both of which - while possible - are far from certain.

Matt Huffman would absolutely try to ram such a thing through the State Senate.  However, it’s not clear whether Stephens would actually go that far (although a bunch of bluster is inevitable) and I would be mildly surprised if DeWine signed such a thing.  But again, even if all that happened, the OH SC would strike down that crap the moment it got half a chance.

[Person Man]

The idea to strip courts of jurisdiction over abortion is bonkers. Like how would you even convict anyone of breaking abortion laws if the court has no jurisdiction?

Insane that Republicans would want to get into the business of state legislatures ignoring courts in this environment.  If this becomes the standard, possession of a firearm is going to be a felony in the West Coast and NE states in a few years and there will be nothing anyone can do about it.  

I mean, if the courts have no power, and the legislature can literally do whatever it wants, couldn’t local police go around and send anyone to jail?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Going into Tuesday, I wonder how many folks expected the abortion measure to be more anticlimactic than cannabis.

I certainly didn't expect it to better than the Michigan referendum.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

[windjammer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

They are posturing more than anything I believe

[politicallefty]

How did the November abortion referendum compare to the August 60% threshold referendum by county?

Looks like there were at least some counties that were both pro-60% and pro-choice, generally in outer suburb.  Perhaps libertarian types worried about tax increases by referendum?

I think there was only one anti-60% and pro-life county.

That's right. However, you're talking about very small margins. The higher turnout was probably the biggest factor. Fyi:

Yes in August ("pro-life") & Yes in November (pro-choice): Butler, Fairfield, Licking, Union
No in August ("pro-choice") & No in November (pro-life): Greene

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

They are posturing more than anything I believe

It's an attempt to eliminate judicial independence and review. It should be taken very seriously. If something like that were to pass, it would effectively be the end of the rule of law. Constitutional rights do not exist if a legislative majority can overturn them at will (let alone what a motivated executive might attempt if given the opportunity).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

They are posturing more than anything I believe

Agreed, they have to give the appearance of fighting tooth and nail, but this isn’t anything serious.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

They are posturing more than anything I believe

Agreed, they have to give the appearance of fighting tooth and nail, but this isn’t anything serious.

What makes you think they are not serious?

(I'm also curious to know why Putnam County is such an outlier within Ohio. It's well to the right of even Mercer County, which is what I'd used to know as the most right-wing Republican county. There has to be something specific going on with that county. Maybe a fanatical religious leader?)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Imagine actually believing this will amount to anything

They are posturing more than anything I believe

Agreed, they have to give the appearance of fighting tooth and nail, but this isn’t anything serious.

What makes you think they are not serious?

(I'm also curious to know why Putnam County is such an outlier within Ohio. It's well to the right of even Mercer County, which is what I'd used to know as the most right-wing Republican county. There has to be something specific going on with that county. Maybe a fanatical religious leader?)

1) Putnam County is really more like rural northeast Indiana than Ohio.  Really, so are the rest of the counties in the area, but some at least have a small cities with a blue precinct or two.

2) I think they’re not serious b/c there is no chance of this succeeds. It’s far from clear DeWine will sign it or that it’ll get through the legislature and even if it does, the courts will strike it down so fast it’ll make your head spin.

[WalterWhite]

I am surprised that Jefferson, Belmont, and Monroe Counties voted No on this referendum.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1724087749664210989

Then why aren’t they impeaching judges now?

[politicallefty]

1) Putnam County is really more like rural northeast Indiana than Ohio.  Really, so are the rest of the counties in the area, but some at least have a small cities with a blue precinct or two.

I get that, but even then, it really stands out in the area. Less than 17% Yes (an almost 5:1 margin against)? The next two strongest counties against were Mercer (21.4% Yes) and Shelby (24.2% Yes). Those were the only counties where the Yes side failed to get above 25%.

I am surprised that Jefferson, Belmont, and Monroe Counties voted No on this referendum.

Those counties actually swung a decent margin against the pro-choice side compared to August (comparing No in August to Yes in November):

Jefferson: 43%->41%
Belmont: 45%->40%
Monroe: 37%->33%

None of them voted for marijuana either, although the first two counties were very close. There seemed to be a lot of counties on that where Yes fell short of winning but got over 47%. Most interestingly though is I think marijuana legalization might have only failed in one Congressional district: OH-06. (I'm not 100% sure on OH-04, but it looked pretty close either way.)

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/haleybemiller/status/1724515292125024393