[November 7, 2023] Ohio Abortion Referendum Megathread

[Birdish]

Do the first Exit Polls also have numbers about the partisan breakdown??

I didn't see when I checked earlier but they might be released later.

[oldtimer]

Roe vs Wade exit poll:

Angry/Diss =60%
Enthusiastic/Sats =35%

Looks like Dems will win this 60/40 .

[politicallefty]

Roe vs Wade exit poll:

Angry/Diss =60%
Enthusiastic/Sats =35%

Looks like Dems will win this 60/40 .

Specifically:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 21%
Satisfied: 17%
Enthusiastic: 18%

It's worth keeping in mind that polls are still open for another couple hours, so those numbers are obviously preliminary.

Fwiw, the final exit poll for Michigan's initiative:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 18%
Satisfied: 23%
Enthusiastic: 18%

[libertpaulian]

Roe vs Wade exit poll:

Angry/Diss =60%
Enthusiastic/Sats =35%

Looks like Dems will win this 60/40 .

Specifically:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 21%
Satisfied: 17%
Enthusiastic: 18%

It's worth keeping in mind that polls are still open for another couple hours, so those numbers are obviously preliminary.

Fwiw, the final exit poll for Michigan's initiative:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 18%
Satisfied: 23%
Enthusiastic: 18%

That was more or less Michigan's result.

[oldtimer]

Roe vs Wade exit poll:

Angry/Diss =60%
Enthusiastic/Sats =35%

Looks like Dems will win this 60/40 .

Specifically:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 21%
Satisfied: 17%
Enthusiastic: 18%

It's worth keeping in mind that polls are still open for another couple hours, so those numbers are obviously preliminary.

Fwiw, the final exit poll for Michigan's initiative:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 18%
Satisfied: 23%
Enthusiastic: 18%

So we are looking at Ohio mirroring Michigan despite being way more Republican.

[Person Man]

Roe vs Wade exit poll:

Angry/Diss =60%
Enthusiastic/Sats =35%

Looks like Dems will win this 60/40 .

Specifically:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 21%
Satisfied: 17%
Enthusiastic: 18%

It's worth keeping in mind that polls are still open for another couple hours, so those numbers are obviously preliminary.

Fwiw, the final exit poll for Michigan's initiative:

Angry: 39%
Dissatisfied: 18%
Satisfied: 23%
Enthusiastic: 18%

So we are looking at Ohio mirroring Michigan despite being way more Republican.

I didn’t know there were a lot of “libertarians” in Ohio.

[Oryxslayer]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

[H. Ross Peron]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

Not surprising, lots of Boomer moderates or even center right voters who are pro choice but against legalized pot.

[Oryxslayer]

Currently Athens is the most pro-Abortion and pro-Marijuana. I know there was some discussion about that.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

In most of the state, but in Appalachian Ohio marijuana is running ahead of abortion.

[politicallefty]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

In most of the state, but in Appalachian Ohio marijuana is running ahead of abortion.

Marijuana doesn't have the same polarization that other issues have. UltraRepublican Allen County (NWOH) is 84% in. 1 is at 35%, 2 is at 46%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

TFW the marijuana initiative seems to be running behind the Abortion initiative.

In most of the state, but in Appalachian Ohio marijuana is running ahead of abortion.

I now accept my accolades

[politicallefty]

Results are starting to converge, as I expected.

Statewide (30% in):
1: 58.9
2: 55.2

Look at the most Republican county in the state, Putnam (>95% in): 1 at 17%, 2 at 31%.

[With you in spirit]

“smoke weed and get an abortion” - ohio, 2023

[politicallefty]

AP calls a victory for Issue 1!

[Progressive Pessimist]

“smoke weed and get an abortion” - ohio, 2023

Are they becoming New Jersey?

[politicallefty]

A number of Republican strongholds across the state are voting No on 1 and Yes on 2 (Clermont (Cincinnati suburbs), Sandusky and Seneca (North Central), Meigs (SE)). The marijuana coalition is an odd one once  you get past age.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1722077415822770424?s=46&t=XC6qQa4mbo0E2oJiVU...

Ohio, come for the Weed, stay for the Reproductive Rights

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looks like Ohio is now the only pro-abortion pro-death penalty state in the country. (California's death penalty is virtually nonexistent, the chamber has been dismantled and no one has been executed since 2006).

[MasterJedi]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they will repeal the marijuana legalization immediately. 

[Oryxslayer]

I would not totally dismiss the idea that there are counties that voted Yes to reform the constitution last time (I assume this is what you meant) that go for Yes again, even if the margins narrow from August. Cause the two questions could see regional variation, and there were six suburban counties last time that had 51-49 margins or narrower - three on the Yes side and three on the side of No. If say hypothetically, the South and West got more anti-Abortion from August, and the North and Center got more pro-Abortion, then some Columbus and Dayton suburban counties might flip in opposite directions.

Obviously though, all this talk of region variations is predicated on this referendum getting close to the August referendums's results. If we end up somewhere like 52-48 then counties will only be going in one direction, even if there are regional variations in support levels under the hood.

You did assume correctly. It's a somewhat crude way to make a comparison, but it is hard data and the two sides were largely fighting it on those grounds. That swath of counties along the Indiana border and north of Dayton sure knew what they were voting for. Not only did they feature some of the highest turnout, it's where they got pretty close to Trump margins. The August initiative was defeated because the North/Northeast turned out in big numbers, but diverged significantly from the Trump margins. The battle was won in the Cleveland suburbs (which seems to be true of most elections in Ohio). I don't think this election is any different in terms of where the battle will be won. The Appalachian part of the state is a bit of wildcard, but there aren't that many votes there. If it passes, I think that's where the marijuana initiative will far exceed Biden's numbers.

Where do you see the abortion amendment winning in places that the August amendment did? Let's use a 55-45 win as a baseline for this thought experiment. Butler County is the only that doesn't seem like it has a substantial rural component. The Columbus suburbs outside Franklin only really seem to be significant to the north, Delaware County (a must-win county for the pro-choice side). The others, such as Union County, all seem too blood red to be swing to the pro-choice side. I am interesting as to what you're thinking is on this. (As it is though, if the polls are to be believed, the pro-choice side should be on the verge of something around a 60-40 victory. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the polls have been showing sizable wins.)

Well this happened. Yes won Union, Butler, and Licking county despite the statewide margin narrowing, and lost Greene county which they previously won. Counties moving in both directions.

[politicallefty]

Well this happened. Yes won Union, Butler, and Licking county despite the statewide margin narrowing, and lost Greene county which they previously won. Counties moving in both directions.

Fairfield County flipped as well, btw. It's interesting that three of the four counties that appear to have flipped to the pro-choice side were in the Columbus area. (If I'd predicted a county to flip to pro-choice, it would've been Butler.) It remains to be seen what the final margin will be statewide when the vote is certified, but it'll clearly be within a hair of the August special either way. I'm not really seeing any significant region shifts from August though. It seems like there's some give and take of a couple points in counties across the state and that's pretty much it. Turnout was also a big factor, of course. About 3.1m voted in August, but this looks like it'll end up close to the 4m mark.

As for the biggest Yes vote, it looks like it'll either be Franklin or Cuyahoga. They're at 73% and 74% respectively, but Cuyahoga has to finish its count. Athens County will probably end up third at 72%. Not surprisingly, Athens looks like it'll end up as the biggest Yes vote on marijuana.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Not surprising, lots of Boomer moderates or even center right voters who are pro choice but against legalized pot.

Not just them. They're are many people across the political spectrum that isn't "comfortable" per se with marijuana.

I'm young, left-wing and support legalizing recreational marijuana but I'm not the most comfortable with some of the social negatives that come with it.

[politicallefty]

Not surprising, lots of Boomer moderates or even center right voters who are pro choice but against legalized pot.

Not just them. They're are many people across the political spectrum that isn't "comfortable" per se with marijuana.

I'm young, left-wing and support legalizing recreational marijuana but I'm not the most comfortable with some of the social negatives that come with it.

The exit polling showed a strict divergence on age in terms of the Yes vote:

18-24: 86%
25-29: 82%
30-39: 72%
40-49: 64%
50-64: 50%
65+: 40%

[Gass3268]

Allegedly the Ohio GOP says they will repeal the marijuana legalization immediately. 

They said they plan on adjusting where the taxes go and have a THC limit.