What are Biden's odds of winning re-election

[dw93]

55-60% as of now. Given how messed up our society is, I can't count anything out, including Trump.

[BG-NY (permanently retired)]

45%-49%

[MT Treasurer]

This is unusually dependent on the factors Mechalord mentioned and who his opponent ends up being — simply way too early to tell. Against Trump I’d say around 60-65% (with potential to go as high as 75-80%), if someone manages to beat Trump in the primary my guess would be around 35-40% (could go as low as 25-30%).

Biden desperately needs his opponent to be more unpopular than him, and things could quickly go south for his campaign if someone other than Trump (or even DeSantis) — Tim Scott? — emerges as a real contender for the nomination in the coming months and pulls it off in the primary. 

"But Trump would just run third-party then." — Yes, and look like even more of an emasculated loser and hurt the GOP nominee far less than many here would/want to believe. Read: Yes, he would hurt the GOP nominee (assuming he’s not in jail by that time), but he wouldn’t guarantee their defeat.

"Yes, but my gut tells me Donald Trump is more electable than anybody else in the field even if he’s despised by the vast majority of Americans and Republicans need him to stand any chance against Biden." — Well, I’m sorry, but the simple but clear answer is that your gut is simply wrong. I’m not particularly thrilled with the Republican field so far — looking forward to the debates —, but that doesn’t make Donald Trump anything other than an embarrassing underperformer who could lose even to a deeply unpopular Joe Biden. I’m sorry for Trump's diehard supporters, but the numbers don’t lie, and neither does history.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is unusually dependent on the factors Mechalord mentioned and who his opponent ends up being — simply way too early to tell. Against Trump I’d say around 60-65% (with potential to go as high as 75-80%), if someone manages to beat Trump in the primary my guess would be around 35-40% (could go as low as 25-30%).

Biden desperately needs his opponent to be more unpopular than him, and things could quickly go south for his campaign if someone other than Trump (or even DeSantis) — Tim Scott? — emerges as a real contender for the nomination in the coming months and pulls it off in the primary.  

"But Trump would just run third-party then." — Yes, and look like even more of an emasculated loser and hurt the GOP nominee far less than many here would/want to believe. Read: Yes, he would hurt the GOP nominee (assuming he’s not in jail by that time), but he wouldn’t guarantee their defeat.

"Yes, but my gut tells me Donald Trump is more electable than anybody else in the field even if he’s despised by the vast majority of Americans and Republicans need him to stand any chance against Biden." — Well, I’m sorry, but the simple but clear answer is that your gut is simply wrong. I’m not particularly thrilled with the Republican field so far — looking forward to the debates —, but that doesn’t make Donald Trump anything other than an embarrassing underperformer who could lose even to a deeply unpopular Joe Biden. I’m sorry for Trump's diehard supporters, but the numbers don’t lie, and neither does history.

The polling numbers show that Trump has improved by around 4 points compared to 2020, and it could be as high as 8-9 if the economy slides into a recession comparable to 2008 (which seems likely at this point). In fact, the latest poll shows Trump ahead in Arizona, which you say should be out of reach even if Trump wins. Your gut is wrong that Trump would be uniquely weak (or more precisely, it seems like your emotions against Trump are conflicting with the actual data).

Trump has more moderate positions than most of the GOP field, and has an economic record to contrast with Biden's, making it easier to make the election about the economy, where Biden is very weak. Average Americans simply do not have the same priorities as you - ie they care far more about the fact that their living standards have declined significantly and that it's almost impossible to afford a house, than whatever random charges are being made against Trump to distract from the real issues.

In before "downballot Democrats are doing well" - downballot Democrats haven't been tied to Biden enough, and thus aren't punished much for the poor economy. Evidence for this is polls showing Trump running far ahead of Republicans in most Senate races - ie the same poll showing Trump up by 2 in AZ shows Lake down by 7.

[MT Treasurer]

The polling numbers show that Trump has improved by around 4 points compared to 2020,

That’s not true when you look at the actual vote share — there is an unusually large number of undecideds in those same polls you cite which could very much still break against him. Margins are very misleading when 15% of the electorate remains undecided.

In fact, the latest poll shows Trump ahead in Arizona, which you say should be out of reach even if Trump wins.

Come on, dude — I never said AZ was "out of reach even if Trump wins," I just said it might vote to the left of the tipping point and is undeniably trending Democratic. That’s cheap, and you know it.

You also conveniently left out that that poll had him ahead by just two points — at a time when Biden is deeply underwater nationally and national polls show a tie.

Your gut is wrong that Trump would be uniquely weak (or more precisely, it seems like your emotions against Trump are conflicting with the actual data).

You’re right that I don’t want Trump to be the nominee and that there’s always a risk of allowing emotion to interfere with your predictions, especially when it comes to Trump, but the fact that the Republican Party has undeperformed the fundamentals every time since he’s been the standard bearer of the party, including in 2022, isn’t "gut."

Trump has more moderate positions than most of the GOP field,

Yes, on some issues, perhaps, but the bad part for him is that people vote on things besides "ideology" and that candidate perception can easily trump ideology. Besides, no Democratic campaign will let Trump get away with his moderate rhetoric when his record is far less "moderate" on some of those issues.

I vehemently disagree with this strange idea that Trump can get away with anything because of his (vaguely) moderate stances on some social issues, including indictments, deranged threats, insurrections, and favorability ratings in the 30s, etc. True, his diehard supporters won’t ever care, but they don’t make up even close to a majority of the electorate.

and has an economic record to contrast with Biden's, making it easier to make the election about the economy, where Biden is very weak.

This is a good point and the one ace up his sleeve against Biden. However, do you trust a narcissist to stay focused on the economy? I don’t.

In before "downballot Democrats are doing well" - downballot Democrats haven't been tied to Biden enough, and thus aren't punished much for the poor economy. Evidence for this is polls showing Trump running far ahead of Republicans in most Senate races - ie the same poll showing Trump up by 2 in AZ shows Lake down by 7.

I’ve never disputed this; in fact, I’ve repeatedly emphasized the same thing, so we’re in agreement here.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That’s not true when you look at the actual vote share — there is an unusually large number of undecideds in those same polls you cite which could very much still break against him. Margins are very misleading when 15% of the electorate remains undecided.

There's a reason why the voters are undecided. Sure, undecided voters would add 2 points to Biden's margins if we allocated them by their 2020 vote, but there's a reason why they aren't with Biden right now. Someone whose living standards have been decimated during the Biden regime won't necessarily come home.

In fact, this might just be a harbinger of high third party voters (which is also why NH/ME/MN will likely be competitive). By comparison, by February 2020, most polls had something like Biden 50 - Trump 46, with very few undecideds, because few people disapproved of both Trump and Biden. People aren't just undecided for no reason.

You’re right that I don’t want Trump to be the nominee and that there’s always a risk of allowing emotion to interfere with your predictions, especially when it comes to Trump, but the fact that the Republican Party has undeperformed the fundamentals every time since he’s been the standard bearer of the party, including in 2022, isn’t "gut."

If it were just fundaments right now, Biden would probably lose the PV by 5. So even if Trump underperforms the fundamentals, he could still win. The GOP field is also underwhelming - DeSantis is worse than Trump for sure (he seems like Blake Masters, while Trump is similar to Lake). Youngkin (who should be merely replacement level in an ideal world but isn't because the Republican bar is so low now) would probably perform about evenly with fundamentals (and probably win his home state), while Sununu would outperform the fundamentals, but none of these are running.

Yes, on some issues, perhaps, but the bad part for him is that people vote on things besides "ideology" and that candidate perception can easily trump ideology. Besides, no Democratic campaign will let Trump get away with his moderate rhetoric when his record is far less "moderate" on some of those issues.

I vehemently disagree with this strange idea that Trump can get away with anything because of his (vaguely) moderate stances on some social issues, including indictments, deranged threats, insurrections, and favorability ratings in the 30s, etc. True, his diehard supporters won’t ever care, but they don’t make up even close to a majority of the electorate.

It isn't just social issues: Trump is also the one that's the hardest to attack for cutting Social Security. Not being able to attack Trump on Social Security or abortion is a huge plus that prevents them from having to play defense on the issues and allows them to play offense.

Indictments don't directly affect people's lives; people will just yawn like they do at Hunter Biden. In fact, it could hurt Biden, if they perceive Biden to be attacking American Democracy by arresting his political opposition. His favorability rating is also close to Biden's at around 40, so it's mostly a wash here.

This is a good point and the one ace up his sleeve against Biden. However, do you trust a narcissist to stay focused on the economy? I don’t.  

Obama was a big narcissist too. However, he was a good messenger and campaigner, and focused on things like the auto bailouts to win Ohio.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I sincerely appreciate your perspective, although I’m not sure someone who refers to the Biden Presidency as the "Biden regime" is all that unbiased themselves.

I actually agree with the crux of your message — "Trump is unpopular but might still win because Biden is far more unpopular than in 2020" and "Biden is his own worst enemy" — but I really do feel like you underestimate just how much he will underperform the fundamentals and how limited his appeal outside of his base is (limited doesn’t mean non-existent, however). You’ll notice that my current prediction has the Republicans barely winning the White House, but that might change and I’ve obviously been wrong before!

It’s certainly a fascinating debate to have. Ever since Trump, it does feel like predicting elections has basically turned into a choice between two radically different universes.

I don’t think anybody can confidently predict the exact outcome of the race at this point, and I’ll try to be more cautious than last time. I’m looking forward to the debates to see if anyone other than DeSantis (who I haven’t written off yet but who has disappointed so far) can break through and present themselves as a viable alternative to Trump. That would be a game-changer, in my opinion.

Trump's numbers look good on paper but he’s not even close to a majority in GE (and in some states even in primary) polls, so I’d just urge caution. I also don’t think polls with tons of undecideds mean all that much at this early stage. So best to just calm down and see what happens, regardless of who you support.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Imagine thinking the indictments will help Trump with swing voters. The copium is real

[oldtimer]

The polling numbers show that Trump has improved by around 4 points compared to 2020,

That’s not true when you look at the actual vote share — there is an unusually large number of undecideds in those same polls you cite which could very much still break against him. Margins are very misleading when 15% of the electorate remains undecided.

In fact, the latest poll shows Trump ahead in Arizona, which you say should be out of reach even if Trump wins.

Come on, dude — I never said AZ was "out of reach even if Trump wins," I just said it might vote to the left of the tipping point and is undeniably trending Democratic. That’s cheap, and you know it.

You also conveniently left out that that poll had him ahead by just two points — at a time when Biden is deeply underwater nationally and national polls show a tie.

Your gut is wrong that Trump would be uniquely weak (or more precisely, it seems like your emotions against Trump are conflicting with the actual data).

You’re right that I don’t want Trump to be the nominee and that there’s always a risk of allowing emotion to interfere with your predictions, especially when it comes to Trump, but the fact that the Republican Party has undeperformed the fundamentals every time since he’s been the standard bearer of the party, including in 2022, isn’t "gut."

Trump has more moderate positions than most of the GOP field,

Yes, on some issues, perhaps, but the bad part for him is that people vote on things besides "ideology" and that candidate perception can easily trump ideology. Besides, no Democratic campaign will let Trump get away with his moderate rhetoric when his record is far less "moderate" on some of those issues.

I vehemently disagree with this strange idea that Trump can get away with anything because of his (vaguely) moderate stances on some social issues, including indictments, deranged threats, insurrections, and favorability ratings in the 30s, etc. True, his diehard supporters won’t ever care, but they don’t make up even close to a majority of the electorate.

and has an economic record to contrast with Biden's, making it easier to make the election about the economy, where Biden is very weak.

This is a good point and the one ace up his sleeve against Biden. However, do you trust a narcissist to stay focused on the economy? I don’t.

In before "downballot Democrats are doing well" - downballot Democrats haven't been tied to Biden enough, and thus aren't punished much for the poor economy. Evidence for this is polls showing Trump running far ahead of Republicans in most Senate races - ie the same poll showing Trump up by 2 in AZ shows Lake down by 7.

I’ve never disputed this; in fact, I’ve repeatedly emphasized the same thing, so we’re in agreement here.

Here is the average of state polls by state category so far that maybe of assistance:

Red States vs 2020 results:
Biden -3.5
Trump -3.5

Swing States:
Biden -4.5
Trump -2.5

Blue States:
Biden -5.5
Trump -1.5

2020 polls vs 2016 results:

Red States
Trump -2.5
Biden +7

Swing States:
Trump -2
Biden +3.5

Blue States
Trump -1.5
Biden +6

2016 polls vs 2012 results:

Red States
Hillary -4
Trump -10

Swing States
Hillary -6.5
Trump -4

Blue States
Hillary -10.5
Trump -4.5

So Biden is not doing as bad as Hillary but worse than 2020, but Trump is doing as good as 2020.
I would guess, looking at the polls, a repeat of 2016 with fewer 3rd parties.
However I would give Biden a greater chance than what the polls say because of the economy.

[Plankton5165]

Am i the only person who thinks Biden is more likely to lose if someone other than Trump gets the nomination than if Trump does get the nomination?

[oldtimer]

Am i the only person who thinks Biden is more likely to lose if someone other than Trump gets the nomination than if Trump does get the nomination?

There is no polling evidence that Republicans have anyone more popular than Trump among their ranks nationally (the P.O.S polls are probably a DeSantis internal).

They have some individual governors or senators that are more popular in their individual states for local reasons, but less popular nationally (DeSantis, Sununu ect.)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Am i the only person who thinks Biden is more likely to lose if someone other than Trump gets the nomination than if Trump does get the nomination?

no

This is a fairly normal/reasonable opinion to hold, it’s just very underrepresented on this forum (but that doesn’t make it any less accurate).

This forum really doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to predicting elections, in case you didn’t know.

Predicting elections is hard. Even predictions made the day before the election probably miss on average by 4 points (idk why everyone seems way more certain about specific state margins at this point than a 4 point confidence interval).

[jaichind]

Around 55%

[BigZuck08]

I say around 55% as of now. It's still only 2023, so things may change. But as of now, he has the upper hand, especially if he's going against Trump (which he likely will atm), DeSantis, or Ramaswamy.

[Casino Democrat]

Am i the only person who thinks Biden is more likely to lose if someone other than Trump gets the nomination than if Trump does get the nomination?

Well it would depend on which non-Trump candidate gets the nom.  DeSantis would likely lose.  I am less than impressed with Tim Scott and Nikki Haley (they come off as broiler plate 2000s GOP) but I could see an argument being made for either if conditions are bad enough.

Chris Christie on the other hand has the potential to be a very dangerous candidate to Biden.