What are Biden's odds of winning re-election

[GregTheGreat657]

I'd say Biden stands about a 2 in 3 chance of winning re-election

[WalterWhite]

55% at the moment simply because it is WAY too early say anything for sure

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

55-60%

[ProgressiveModerate]

65% - Certainly believe he's favored, but we're so far out and there are situations that could make him an underdog.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I guess I'll say lean D because it'd hurt Trump a bit to become a convicted felon.

[here2view]

65%, slightly under 2/3 odds.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Around 30%. Biden is one of the weakest possible candidates Democrats can run, and Trump has an economic record to contrast with Biden's.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Lol 100 percent it's a 303 map with wave insurance

[ProudModerate2]

Against trump = 60 - 65%

[indietraveler]

Around 30%. Biden is one of the weakest possible candidates Democrats can run, and Trump has an economic record to contrast with Biden's.

Is this why we're now living through Trump's glorious second term lol.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Around 30%. Biden is one of the weakest possible candidates Democrats can run, and Trump has an economic record to contrast with Biden's.

Is this why we're now living through Trump's glorious second term lol.

Biden's favorability was 52 when the 2020 election happened. It has dropped to around 40 now.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's the same as always with the polls, the people are upset with inflation but when it's time to vote they vote D look what happened in OH

OH isn't IA

[indietraveler]

Around 30%. Biden is one of the weakest possible candidates Democrats can run, and Trump has an economic record to contrast with Biden's.

Is this why we're now living through Trump's glorious second term lol.

Biden's favorability was 52 when the 2020 election happened. It has dropped to around 40 now.

Sure, it's pretty common approval ratings drop regardless of party about being sworn into office. There's typically a notable dip several months removed from inauguration and then a slight upswing closer to election day, again, regardless of party. Pollsters don't push undecideds/no opinions hard enough when we all know his actual approval is a few points higher if people were forced to choose a side.

[The Mamdani Virus]

50-60%

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

I'd agree with those saying "around 60%". If absolutely nothing changes, it's probably better than that. But we're still well over a year out. And both candidates are old and while a Trump health scare is probably good for Biden, Trump being replaced as the GOP nominee is probably bad for Biden.

[NewYorkExpress]

Close to 0% if Trump is the Republican nominee, close to 100% if another Republican is nominated.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

About 60%. He’s very far from a shoo-in, but Trump has plenty of weaknesses and has done pretty much nothing to expand his appeal from 2020. More often than not, simply not being the incumbent isn’t enough to beat an incumbent.

[sg0508]

Without any material changes for the next 15 months - 75%. Enough Americans will vote to just keep Trump out.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Close to 0% if Trump is the Republican nominee, close to 100% if another Republican is nominated.

Are you sure you’ve got this the right way round? My understanding is Biden has a fighting chance if he’s up against Trump again, but could be in serious trouble if the R’s nominate someone more moderate like Christie.

[MATTROSE94]

Around 30%. Biden is one of the weakest possible candidates Democrats can run, and Trump has an economic record to contrast with Biden's.

Is this why we're now living through Trump's glorious second term lol.

Biden's favorability was 52 when the 2020 election happened. It has dropped to around 40 now.

Joe Biden I think will be at Jimmy Carter 1979 levels of approval at best by 2024. The economic indicators are signaling a recession similar to 2008 or 1980-1982 starting next year.

[Doomer]

If Trump is convicted next year (even if his trial re:Jan 6 is simply televised with all of the evidence against him) I think Biden's chances will be around 70%.

[MABA 2020]

55%, only a slight favourite for the moment. It depends how things develop.

[Mr. Smith]

55%, only a slight favourite for the moment. It depends how things develop.

[Casino Democrat]

His odds?  Well it is early and I feel like there are a myriad of factors beyond the time frame (the Trump Trial is pretty unprecedented, regardless of how you feel about the man) that truly make predicting his odds pretty hard.  There are probably several dozen different things that could transpire between now and next November that could radically change the election map of 2024.

My gut says it's much closer to 50-50.  Joe isn't popular.  Donald Trump will be on trial this January and his trial may last the entire election season.  A lot will depend on how the GOP Primaries turn out and how much influence Donald Trump wields at the end of it.  At the same time I cannot feel that optimistic about the current economy.  While inflation has cooled on a lot of goods wages have not and likely will not catch up due to the forced cooldowns by the Fed that has jacked up borrowing costs for homes and cars and halted commercial expansion.  The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, has been very clear about this: what we are experiencing is not enough.  There has not been enough "pain" in the economy yet for this guy to be satisfied.  He thinks this way because he is an idiot who has been consistently wrong since day one of this crisis and no one seems brave enough to tell him this to his face.  I suspect by the end of this year Jerome Powell will prematurely declare victory over inflation at least two more times before reversing course a week later and telling us "more is needed" about 8 more times.

So yeah like it seems like Biden is strong right now but with that IDIOT in the Fed it almost scares me to think what the economy will be like by November next year.  If I was certain Trump would be the nominee or that he would run as a third party spoiler candidate (the details about his trial make me feel less certain of this) for DeSucky or someone else I'd say Biden's odds are at 70%.  But again the things I've heard in the trial seem damning enough it's foreseeable that someone besides Trump or DeSantis gets the nomination.  In which case I think Bidens sister would have to re-open her excel strategy file and come up with a new plan for 2024.

[TDAS04]

70-75%.