Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

Gallup
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1707477227385061383

Pakistan is mostly about Punjab where it is PTI vs PML(N) and Sindh where it is PTI vs PPP.  Ancient rivals PML(N) and PPP will team up this time to take on PTI
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1707797042863726955
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1707793684425797801

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-imran-khans-party-to-challenge-rejection-of-nomination-papers-for-2024-polls-today-11704084487595.html

"Pakistan: Imran Khan's party to challenge rejection of nomination papers for 2024 polls today"

Imran Khan's nomination papers were rejected "on moral grounds"

[jaichind]

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/pakistan-imran-khans-party-to-challenge-rejection-of-nomination-papers-for-2024-polls-today-11704084487595.html

"Pakistan: Imran Khan's party to challenge rejection of nomination papers for 2024 polls today"

Imran Khan's nomination papers were rejected "on moral grounds"

Who do they think he is ?
Donald Trump ?

I think Imran Khan and Trump are very similar.  Both were elected as outsiders but with clear tactical establishment support but tried to govern in a way that tried to co-op the establishment.  Both were ousted from power that were in theory legal but both rejected the process as illegitimate in practice. Both are trying to come back on a popular anti-system line and is expected to govern without the support of the establishment if they win.

[jaichind]

PATTAN-Coalition 38 is civic and labor group coalition.  They are not pro-Khan but for sure are anti- establishment.  They have PTI leading PPP-PMLN 42 to 35

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1750862606913683883

[jaichind]

Punjab provincial election will also be on Feb 8th

[jaichind]

Uh, I decided to open the Wikipedia page for this election (...electoral-type event?) and it appears that the PTI has been prohibited from participating and that Nawaz Sharif ("what if James Buchanan had returned to the White House after the American Civil War") has returned to the country and is likely to win? Is there anyone knowledgeable about whatever the hell has been happening in Pakistan over the past few months?

PTI is not prohibited from participating.  But they are not allowed to use their election symbol based on a technicality.  So all PTI candidates need to run on separate symbols which de facto means they have to run as independents.   This does make it hard for them to win but they are participating.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-ex-pm-imran-khan-wife-get-14-years-jail-in-corruption-case-4964960

"Pakistan Ex-PM Imran Khan, Wife Get 14 Years Jail In Corruption Case"

[jaichind]

The conviction is more likely to generate a sympathy wave for IK than hurt him but then again the election won't be free or fair.

They weren't last time either. But the thumbs will be on the scales in the opposite direction and doubtless heavier.

The main "thumb" would be that PTI will have to run without an election symbol so PTI voters would need to figure out who the PTI candidate is on the ballot.  PTI is planning to use social media to do this but the election commission is cracking down on political content on social media to prevent this from taking place.

[jaichind]

If this is the situation in Punjab then PTI clearly will lose and Nawaz Sharif's PML(N) will return to power.
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1754587302847033485

[jaichind]

BTW, the date of the election is Feb 8th and not TDB

[jaichind]

There will be 272 general seats but also 60 reserved seats for women and 10 reserved seats for minorities which are allocated based on vote share for each party.  With PTI not being able to contest as a party these 70 seats is another bloc of seats to prevent PTI from forming a government.

What PTI has to hope for now is for a massive social media connected  youth turnout that will swing the  election toward the pro-PTI independents.  At this stage this looks unlikely.

[jaichind]

Voting on progress.  The higher the turnout the higher the chance of a PTI upset

Suno TV survey of a subset of seats (it seems mostly in Punjab) has a swing toward PTI backed independents
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1755353344078459207

[jaichind]

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

[jaichind]

The Internet was shut down during voting.  Theoretically, this is to prevent violence but also has the impact of preventing last-minute PTI GOTV efforts toward its internet-savvy youth vote.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very little votes in) at (133 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      51
PML(N)       38
PPP            21

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (147 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      55
PML(N)       44
PPP            23
IPP              4 (PTI splinter)
GDP             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left)

PTI doing a bit better than expected but the lack of a massive landslide by PTI means it cannot overcome not getting reserved seats for women and minorities so for sure PTI cannot claim power.  On the other hand the PML(N) led government will most likely be fairly unstable

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (159 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      61
PML(N)       48
PPP            25
IPP              4 (PTI splinter)
GDP             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (173 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      70
PML(N)       46
PPP            27
Ind.              6
GDA             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
PKMAP         3 (regionalist)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (185 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      78
PML(N)       47
PPP            29
Ind.              8
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)
GDA             3 (regionalist)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
PKMAP         3 (regionalist)

It is symbolically important that Ind-PTI is now ahead of PML(N) plus PPP

Back in 2018 PTI won 116 out of 272 general seats.  With 266 seats I guess the bogey for Ind-PTI would be to get to around 114 or so to match 2018 performance and a "win" at a symbolic level.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (203 out of 266 with any results)
 
So far results seem to match 2018 fairly well

PTI seems to have done a good job of getting their voters to identify their candidates.  PTI is second place in many seats even where they are not ahead.   In the meantime, PML(N)+PPP overtakes PTI again.
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      82                                                 116
PML(N)       52                                                  64
PPP            34                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI(F)           3 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
GDA             3 (regionalist)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[jaichind]

I suppose the question is whether it will be ordered to, er, "find" the votes to give not-PTI as much as they can get without the result reaching Lukashenko levels of absurdity, or if they're even more incompetent at rigging than last time (in the opposite direction ofc) and they'll have to sort it out after the election by dubious disqualifications for PTI MPs and bullets for those who voted for them.

I think the count is pretty legit.  Like most places in the world, rigging is mostly about what takes place before the election: what the media does, ballot access, voting procedure etc, etc.  Like most places it is hard to figure out where an "unfair advantage" stops and "rigging" starts

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (more significant votes are in) at (207 out of 266 with any results)

It seems PTI will lose some seats relative to 2018 while PML(N) and PPP will gain a few
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      86                                                 116
PML(N)       58                                                  64
PPP            39                                                  43
Ind.             7
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI(F)           3 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[jaichind]

Calling MQM left is quite a stretch. It's the political arm of an ethnic mafia.

But their ideology is fairly secular social liberal

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      99                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            38                                                  43
Ind.             8
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     113                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            40                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)