Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

Does this translate to a PML-N plurality when the reserved seats are doled out?

Very likely. They are doled out by region and will take each party's vote share into account in each region so I expect PML(N) will get almost all of them from Punjab since the Ind-PTI vote share there is very high but will not count toward reserved seats.

On the other hand, the optics are going to be very bad for PML(N) when the results pretty much show that PTI would have swept the polls had the "system" gone all out to stop PTI and even after all that PTI emerge as SLP in general seats.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground to PML(N).  If so I suspect the Punjab assembly will be close and even lean toward PML(N).  I suspect there will not be much movement from here.  At the unofficial level almost all the votes are counted in most seats.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       76                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

Does this translate to a PML-N plurality when the reserved seats are doled out?

If it doesn't then the recalculations will continue until it does.

[Babeuf]

Very clumsily done by the powers that be. They clearly didn't expect PTI to do so well in the actual votes so allowed the unofficial counts to show PTI well ahead and had to "fix" it in the official counts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah the Mexico '88 solution. A bit pathetic.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

Looks like the seat count is stabilizing,  Also it seems in Punjab assembly PML(N) is SLP but not majority over Ind-PTI
 
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       95                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            51                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/pakistan-election-results-when-pml-n-joined-hands-with-ppp-13710002.html

"Pakistan election results: When PML-N joined hands with PPP"

PTI already ruled out alliance with PML(N) or PPP. PML(N) says they will form a coalition government with PPP.

[jaichind]

MQM outperformed in Karachi beating out PTI.  It seems the anti-PTI vote consolidated around MQM to beat back PTI in Karachi.  Losing Karachi is a good part of the seats PTI lost relative to 2018

[jaichind]

Punjab assembly (279 out of 296)

PML(N)    132
Ind.         128 (Most but not all of them are Ind-PTI)
PPP            10

PML(N) headed toward SLP but not majority

[Logical]

Still won't beat that time the Pakistani establishment refused to let the Awami League govern after they swept East Pakistan and won a majority on their own in terms of patheticness.

[oldtimer]

I like how your comments gradually went from this:

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

To this:

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

In an election entirely predictable if it where held free and fair, with a pasting of their current unpopular dictatorship.

[jaichind]

I like how your comments gradually went from this:

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

To this:

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

In an election entirely predictable if it where held free and fair, with a pasting of their current unpopular dictatorship.

Well, even with PTI outperformance the original narrative is the same: PML(N) buys off various parties and some PTI defectors to form government.  It will be very unstable and unpopular and I suspect a snap election will be needed at some stage which might set the stage for some Khan comeback.

[oldtimer]

I like how your comments gradually went from this:

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

To this:

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

In an election entirely predictable if it where held free and fair, with a pasting of their current unpopular dictatorship.

Well, even with PTI outperformance the original narrative is the same: PML(N) buys off various parties and some PTI defectors to form government.  It will be very unstable and unpopular and I suspect a snap election will be needed at some stage which might set the stage for some Khan comeback.

Oh come on, stop pretending Pakistan is a democracy and not a dictatorship.

[Mike88]

I like how your comments gradually went from this:

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

To this:

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

In an election entirely predictable if it where held free and fair, with a pasting of their current unpopular dictatorship.

Well, even with PTI outperformance the original narrative is the same: PML(N) buys off various parties and some PTI defectors to form government.  It will be very unstable and unpopular and I suspect a snap election will be needed at some stage which might set the stage for some Khan comeback.

Oh come on, stop pretending Pakistan is a democracy and not a dictatorship.

I wouldn't say that Pakistan is a dictatorship. It's more a hybrid thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MQM outperformed in Karachi beating out PTI.  It seems the anti-PTI vote consolidated around MQM to beat back PTI in Karachi.  Losing Karachi is a good part of the seats PTI lost relative to 2018

A reversion to the norm as much as anything else: everything was in a state of flux in Karachi then and the state was trying to hit all MQM factions hard.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

In unofficial terms I think we are getting close to  done
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       75                                                  64
PPP            52                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[2952-0-0]

The joke that the Pakistani army has never won a war and never lost an election still holds...for now.

[omar04]

https://www.elections.gov.pk/national-assembly

ECP website

IND      
                           99                           

   
PML (N)

                           69                           

PPP      

                           52                           

MQM      

                           15

[jaichind]

https://www.elections.gov.pk/national-assembly

ECP website

IND      
                           99                           

   
PML (N)

                           69                           

PPP      

                           52                           

MQM      

                           15

Note that IND are some real independents and most are PTI running as independents

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I was always amazed how there wasn’t a military coup early on when Imran started getting out of hand. Will the military finally do what needs to be done or is the military actually divided?

From my own view, the military was, and still is, divided on truely taking action against Imran Khan with the exception of the sham last year of forcing him out.

Funny things are happening in Karachi but that's hardly news isn't it?

It's to be expected there anyways

[jaichind]

If you take what is on

https://www.elections.gov.pk/national-assembly

and add in unofficial results for the seats they are missing you get

                Win                                         Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       94                                                116
PML(N)       73                                                  64
PPP            53                                                  43
MQM          17 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

with 2 seats without unofficial results.  I think those seats will go to minor parties so the list above is likely to be the top 3 party results.

[jaichind]

In addition to roping in PPP, it seems PML(N) will also try to get MQM in a PML(N) government.  If so there should be the numbers to make that work even though it will be a very unstable government.

[jaichind]

Imran Khan claims victory in a AI video made by PTI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0eq50DCm5o&ab_channel=24NewsHD

[jaichind]

PTI supporters should start wearing this t-shirt since in many seats that is exactly how the count went toward the end

[jaichind]

I suspect the PML(N)-PPP deal will be

PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif is to be PM and if for whatever legal reason he cannot then his brother and current PM Shehbaz Sharif will be PM.   What PPP will get is PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's father Asif Ali Zardari and former Pakistan Prez will be made Prez of Pakistan in March when the next Pakistan Prez election comes up.

Given the current PML(N)-PPP government international alignment is lean collective Wset while PTI is lean Russia, the collective West will mostly look the other way and let his new administration be formed and operate.  If so them the IMF-based economic therapy that started a year ago will continue.

[jaichind]

PTI-organized protests against rigging continue although I am sure the army keep a lid on it while the internet is shut down to contain any spread of protest.

The courts already stayed the results of District 88 based on the PTI candidate petition.  It seems there will be up to 100+ PTI candidate legal escalations.  Even if the courts stay many of those results in the end it is the PEC that will decide the results based on a recount.  As a result, almost all the current official result will remain.