Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                          
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     125                                                 116
PML(N)       52                                                  64
PPP            41                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

A lot of votes are in.  Now the question is can PTI win a majority of general seats?

[jaichind]

PML(N) leader and former PM Nawaz Sharif seems to be behind his PTI opponent

[omar04]

Shehbaz Sharif is also in a close race, about 2 thousand votes ahead of an independent.

[Logical]

PTI general secretary has claimed victory. However they still need defections from other parties because they don't have a majority on their own as they are not allocated the 70 women+minority PR seats because they are de facto independents.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     124                                                 116
PML(N)       54                                                  64
PPP            43                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

Not clear if PTI can get to a majority of general seats.  There is still some room for the establishment to impose a non-PTI government.  It will be a very difficult and unstable government but if they believe in keeping out Khan enough there are just enough seats to pull something like that off.

[omar04]

PML(N) is having a very close race in Sheikhpura which is represented by NA-113 through NA-117. They have been mostly popular there in previous elections (PTI won in NA-113 back in 2018).

[omar04]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     124                                                 116
PML(N)       54                                                  64
PPP            43                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

Not clear if PTI can get to a majority of general seats.  There is still some room for the establishment to impose a non-PTI government.  It will be a very difficult and unstable government but if they believe in keeping out Khan enough there are just enough seats to pull something like that off.

Looks like PPP is not doing too well. Zardari posted that PPP and independents were doing well an hour ago https://twitter.com/BBhuttoZardari/status/1755667035860742245

It sounds like he wants to broker a deal with mostly PTI aligned independents.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not seen poll-rigging done with such thoroughgoing incompetence and failure since Mugabe.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/AsfandBhittani/status/1755700390492835904

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     126                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            44                                                  43
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             8

[omar04]

The ECP started announcing results based on unofficial returns in the past hour. So far, only three KP assembly seats have been declared, all for PTI backed candidates.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     132                                                 116
PML(N)       47                                                  64
PPP            46                                                  43
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             6

PTI leads getting close to a majority of general seats

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count (264 out of 266 with leads)

PTI continues to add to its majority
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     139                                                 116
PML(N)       46                                                  64
PPP            48                                                  43
Ind.             6
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)

The PTI gain in seats relative to 2018 is extra impressive when most of the anti-PTI parties had a tactical alliance which means that PTI had to face a consolidation of the anti-PTI vote in most of the seats it was competitive.  PTI seems to have gained extra support beyond 2018 levels to overcome this consolidation of anti-PTI vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/pakistan-poll-results-delayed-as-imran-khan-s-party-claims-win

"Pakistan Poll Results Delayed as Imran Khan’s Party Claims Win in First Results"

Official results delayed

[omar04]

Capital TV live-stream  count (264 out of 266 with leads)

PTI continues to add to its majority
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     139                                                 116
PML(N)       46                                                  64
PPP            48                                                  43
Ind.             6
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)

The PTI gain in seats relative to 2018 is extra impressive when most of the anti-PTI parties had a tactical alliance which means that PTI had to face a consolidation of the anti-PTI vote in most of the seats it was competitive.  PTI seems to have gained extra support beyond 2018 levels to overcome this consolidation of anti-PTI vote.

Are you tabulating this by hand? I can only find a livestream presentation scrolling through each constituency.

[omar04]

A lot of PTI candidates are now complaining about suspicious ECP results flipping PTI leads to PLM(N). One of the most egregious constituencies is NA-55 where the PTI candidate was leading by almost 50 thousand votes.

https://twitter.com/AhmSheikhh/status/1755758195438399550

https://twitter.com/MusaNV18/status/1755755471703544129

[jaichind]

Are you tabulating this by hand? I can only find a livestream presentation scrolling through each constituency.

For a while yes since for a long time they do not post overall numbers

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     118                                                 116
PML(N)       59                                                  64
PPP            47                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

Numbers now really look like a repeat of 2018

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PML(N) gaining at the expense of PTI.  To be fair, when compared to a few hours ago, there are cases where PTI has taken leads in seats there were behind.  It is a lot more PML(N) overtaking PTI seats.  Looking at where outstanding votes are I suspect both PTI and PP might lose a bit more ground.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     113                                                 116
PML(N)       65                                                  64
PPP            47                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

[EastAnglianLefty]

I was always amazed how there wasn’t a military coup early on when Imran started getting out of hand. Will the military finally do what needs to be done or is the military actually divided?

I'm not sure why them being divided would stop them forming a circular firing squad?

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground.  It will be an anti-PTI government led by PML(N) that will be installed although it will be a very difficult government to manage and I suspect there will be a snap election at some stage.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     106                                                 116
PML(N)       67                                                  64
PPP            48                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[jaichind]

Official count. 

https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1755899170249134322

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground.   
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     101                                                 116
PML(N)       71                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             8

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground to PML(N).  If so I suspect the Punjab assembly will be close and even lean toward PML(N).  I suspect there will not be much movement from here.  At the unofficial level almost all the votes are counted in most seats.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       76                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Capital TV live-stream  count

PTI continues to lose ground to PML(N).  If so I suspect the Punjab assembly will be close and even lean toward PML(N).  I suspect there will not be much movement from here.  At the unofficial level almost all the votes are counted in most seats.
                                                         
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI       96                                                116
PML(N)       76                                                  64
PPP            50                                                  43
MQM          15 (Left, anti-PTI)
Ind.             9

Does this translate to a PML-N plurality when the reserved seats are doled out?