Pakistan General Elections: Feb. 8

[jaichind]

There will be 272 general seats but also 60 reserved seats for women and 10 reserved seats for minorities which are allocated based on vote share for each party.  With PTI not being able to contest as a party these 70 seats is another bloc of seats to prevent PTI from forming a government.

What PTI has to hope for now is for a massive social media connected  youth turnout that will swing the  election toward the pro-PTI independents.  At this stage this looks unlikely.

[jaichind]

Voting on progress.  The higher the turnout the higher the chance of a PTI upset

Suno TV survey of a subset of seats (it seems mostly in Punjab) has a swing toward PTI backed independents
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1755353344078459207

[Logical]

Funny things are happening in Karachi but that's hardly news isn't it?

[jaichind]

Turnout is 40%-45%.  No pro-PTI youth surge.  PML(N) should win and be able to form a government by buying off various smaller parties.

[jaichind]

The Internet was shut down during voting.  Theoretically, this is to prevent violence but also has the impact of preventing last-minute PTI GOTV efforts toward its internet-savvy youth vote.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very little votes in) at (133 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      51
PML(N)       38
PPP            21

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (147 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      55
PML(N)       44
PPP            23
IPP              4 (PTI splinter)
GDP             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left)

PTI doing a bit better than expected but the lack of a massive landslide by PTI means it cannot overcome not getting reserved seats for women and minorities so for sure PTI cannot claim power.  On the other hand the PML(N) led government will most likely be fairly unstable

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (159 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      61
PML(N)       48
PPP            25
IPP              4 (PTI splinter)
GDP             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (173 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      70
PML(N)       46
PPP            27
Ind.              6
GDA             4 (regionalist)
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
PKMAP         3 (regionalist)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (185 out of 266 with any results)

Ind-PTI      78
PML(N)       47
PPP            29
Ind.              8
MQM            4 (Left, anti-PTI)
GDA             3 (regionalist)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
PKMAP         3 (regionalist)

It is symbolically important that Ind-PTI is now ahead of PML(N) plus PPP

Back in 2018 PTI won 116 out of 272 general seats.  With 266 seats I guess the bogey for Ind-PTI would be to get to around 114 or so to match 2018 performance and a "win" at a symbolic level.

[Estrella]

I suppose the question is whether it will be ordered to, er, "find" the votes to give not-PTI as much as they can get without the result reaching Lukashenko levels of absurdity, or if they're even more incompetent at rigging than last time (in the opposite direction ofc) and they'll have to sort it out after the election by dubious disqualifications for PTI MPs and bullets for those who voted for them.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (very few votes in) at (203 out of 266 with any results)
 
So far results seem to match 2018 fairly well

PTI seems to have done a good job of getting their voters to identify their candidates.  PTI is second place in many seats even where they are not ahead.   In the meantime, PML(N)+PPP overtakes PTI again.
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      82                                                 116
PML(N)       52                                                  64
PPP            34                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI(F)           3 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
GDA             3 (regionalist)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[Estrella]

But then I guess the rigging is already incompetent if the not-PTI allowed themselves to end up in a situation where the party they spent the last two years fighting against with all means they could get their hands on might win 40% of seats anyway.

[jaichind]

I suppose the question is whether it will be ordered to, er, "find" the votes to give not-PTI as much as they can get without the result reaching Lukashenko levels of absurdity, or if they're even more incompetent at rigging than last time (in the opposite direction ofc) and they'll have to sort it out after the election by dubious disqualifications for PTI MPs and bullets for those who voted for them.

I think the count is pretty legit.  Like most places in the world, rigging is mostly about what takes place before the election: what the media does, ballot access, voting procedure etc, etc.  Like most places it is hard to figure out where an "unfair advantage" stops and "rigging" starts

[Logical]

Calling MQM left is quite a stretch. It's the political arm of an ethnic mafia.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live stream has early leads (more significant votes are in) at (207 out of 266 with any results)

It seems PTI will lose some seats relative to 2018 while PML(N) and PPP will gain a few
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      86                                                 116
PML(N)       58                                                  64
PPP            39                                                  43
Ind.             7
MQM            5 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI(F)           3 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[jaichind]

Calling MQM left is quite a stretch. It's the political arm of an ethnic mafia.

But their ideology is fairly secular social liberal

[Logical]

Leads
Ind-PTI      125
PML(N)      44
PPP             28
MQM            9
JUI(F)           4
Others         15
225/266 general seats with early results

PTI doing better as the count progresses.

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI      99                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            38                                                  43
Ind.             8
MQM            7 (Left, anti-PTI)

[Logical]

Finally found a working results page with maps.
https://election.humnews.pk/

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     113                                                 116
PML(N)       51                                                  64
PPP            40                                                  43
Ind.             9
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)

[jaichind]

Capital TV live-stream  count
                                                           
                Leads                                        Won in 2018
Ind-PTI     117                                                 116
PML(N)       58                                                  64
PPP            41                                                  43
Ind.           10
MQM            9 (Left, anti-PTI)
JUI-F           4 (Islamist, anti-PTI)
IPP              3 (PTI splinter)
BNP             3 (regionalist, Left)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are multiple MQMs these days. None have ever claimed to be on the political Left as such, even if they do (laughably) insist that they are all liberals. Mostly they think that Pashtuns are violent barbarians, Punjabis sneaky ingrates and Sindhis dull-witted peasants, and also that protection rackets are a jolly good idea.

[jaichind]

PML(N) seems to have canceled their victory party.

[PSOL]

I was always amazed how there wasn’t a military coup early on when Imran started getting out of hand. Will the military finally do what needs to be done or is the military actually divided?