High School Boys are Trending Conservative

[lfromnj]

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

It's wild that you can come up with an entire thesis on why men have moved slightly to the right, but it is completely beyond your comprehension why women may have moved sharply to the left in recent years.

There are reasons for young women to move left but a lot of them are garbage. Women form 60% of college degrees and yet for some reason as this trend continues liberals start believing women face discrimination in achieving college degrees ? Other reasons are self serving like most people do such as debt forgivable
 Young Men either don't go to college or if they do they pick the degrees resulting in better jobs to pay off debt. Meanwhile young women join college and don't pay of their debt.

[It’s so Joever]

The “reason” women are shifting left and men are shifting right is simply because it’s become a cultural indicator of femininity/masculinity. Why this has happened is probably a bit of a vicious cycle. Dems make appeals to women on a social level and build those connections, women start identifying as Dems, soon it becomes a thing for women to be Dems. They project those ideas onto social media with a unique aesthetic, that becomes adopted by their widely female circles creating a ripple effect. Vice versa for men btw. How do you reverse it? You don’t. There is no reason for either side to actually change things right now, the shift doesn’t really hurt or help anyone on balance.

It’s really not about issues. Even for the ones you would think “should” be polarized by gender by default, not necessarily. In fact Pew polling shows that women were once just as pro life as men. Also this is why people can be “Obama Trump” voters, because it’s a cultural expression.
Let’s be real politics is just group psychology.

[Devout Centrist]

Why are we drawing hysterical conclusions from a survey that shows only 36%(!!!) of respondents have an ideological preference?

[WalterWhite]

The “reason” women are shifting left and men are shifting right is simply because it’s become a cultural indicator of femininity/masculinity. Why this has happened is probably a bit of a vicious cycle. Dems make appeals to women on a social level and build those connections, women start identifying as Dems, soon it becomes a thing for women to be Dems. They project those ideas onto social media with a unique aesthetic, that becomes adopted by their widely female circles creating a ripple effect. Vice versa for men btw.

I doubt the premise that men are shifting right and that women are shifting left; ever since 2000, the gender gap between men and women in terms of voting has always been about 20% in every presidential election. Additionally, the data indicate that high school boys are becoming LESS conservative.

How do you reverse it? You don’t. There is no reason for either side to actually change things right now, the shift doesn’t really hurt or help anyone on balance.

If you are correct in assuming that such a trend is occurring at the moment, are you sure that it would not help or hurt anyone in the balance? Such a trend would only increase polarization along gender lines, increasing misogynist attitudes among men and misandrist attitudes among women, leading to a dramatically decreased fertility rate and a declining population. Politics is incredibly polarizing, so assigning political parties to gender identities is like pouring lighter fluid (political polarization) on fire (sexism).

It’s really not about issues. Even for the ones you would think “should” be polarized by gender by default, not necessarily. In fact Pew polling shows that women were once just as pro life as men. Also this is why people can be “Obama Trump” voters, because it’s a cultural expression.
Let’s be real politics is just group psychology.

https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

There is absolutely a prominent gender gap in terms of how men and women view abortion. Men are Pro-Choice+6%; women are Pro-Choice+33%. Issues do impact voting patterns.

Do you think a party with a "feminine aesthetic" (not even sure what that means) that believes in the cult of domesticity would win female voters? Of course not, voters care more about policy than "aesthetic".

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why are we drawing hysterical conclusions from a survey that shows only 36%(!!!) of respondents have an ideological preference?

atlas wouldn't exist without hysterical conclusions.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I'm guessing that we could get to the point that while the white vote remains similar overall, we could see white females voting between 70-80% Dem and white males voting between 80-90% Rep. It's an interesting article and a sign that gender polarization could increase to the point where ones gender could become as big of an indicator of how someone votes than race.

I'm really skeptical of 70% of White women voting Dem. It's not happening. I don't think 80% of White males with vote GOP either, although I think the gender gap will continue to increase, not just in whites but in all races.

[It’s so Joever]

The “reason” women are shifting left and men are shifting right is simply because it’s become a cultural indicator of femininity/masculinity. Why this has happened is probably a bit of a vicious cycle. Dems make appeals to women on a social level and build those connections, women start identifying as Dems, soon it becomes a thing for women to be Dems. They project those ideas onto social media with a unique aesthetic, that becomes adopted by their widely female circles creating a ripple effect. Vice versa for men btw.

I doubt the premise that men are shifting right and that women are shifting left; ever since 2000, the gender gap between men and women in terms of voting has always been about 20% in every presidential election. Additionally, the data indicate that high school boys are becoming LESS conservative.

I mean we have some early data here suggesting just that, but time will tell. And “ever since 2000” can easily change. Does Atlas have a remind me feature? This would be fun to look at in a few years.

How do you reverse it? You don’t. There is no reason for either side to actually change things right now, the shift doesn’t really hurt or help anyone on balance.

If you are correct in assuming that such a trend is occurring at the moment, are you sure that it would not help or hurt anyone in the balance? Such a trend would only increase polarization along gender lines, increasing misogynist attitudes among men and misandrist attitudes among women, leading to a dramatically decreased fertility rate and a declining population. Politics is incredibly polarizing, so assigning political parties to gender identities is like pouring lighter fluid (political polarization) on fire (sexism).

I should rephrase. It won’t help or hurt either political party. Society will be much worse off in many ways if what I think is happening does happen.

It’s really not about issues. Even for the ones you would think “should” be polarized by gender by default, not necessarily. In fact Pew polling shows that women were once just as pro life as men. Also this is why people can be “Obama Trump” voters, because it’s a cultural expression.
Let’s be real politics is just group psychology.

https://civiqs.com/results/abortion_legal?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

There is absolutely a prominent gender gap in terms of how men and women view abortion. Men are Pro-Choice+6%; women are Pro-Choice+33%. Issues do impact voting patterns.

Do you think a party with a "feminine aesthetic" (not even sure what that means) that believes in the cult of domesticity would win female voters? Of course not, voters care more about policy than "aesthetic".

[/quote]
Yes, CURRENTLY women are far more pro choice. But that simply was not always the case, https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx

And to be clear I do think there are a few limits to my theories on social voting. I do think if it directly and explicitly hurts one personally (and not just hypothetically) that can “break” the stranglehold. I don’t think a group will vote to mass kill themselves (at least not directly, ahem Florida and climate change)

That being said, I do legitimately think if you really framed it right and waited a few generations (cultural changes take time and inertia is very much a thing), you actually could over time get domesticity to become a “feminine” ideal among women. I obviously don’t support such a thing but I totally think it is possible.

Voters care more about “policy” sure, but what “policy” they support is extremely malleable and heavily contingent on identity (which likewise is malleable)

[WalterWhite]

Yes, CURRENTLY women are far more pro choice. But that simply was not always the case, https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx

And to be clear I do think there are a few limits to my theories on social voting. I do think if it directly and explicitly hurts one personally (and not just hypothetically) that can “break” the stranglehold. I don’t think a group will vote to mass kill themselves (at least not directly, ahem Florida and climate change)

That being said, I do legitimately think if you really framed it right and waited a few generations (cultural changes take time and inertia is very much a thing), you actually could over time get domesticity to become a “feminine” ideal among women. I obviously don’t support such a thing but I totally think it is possible.

Voters care more about “policy” sure, but what “policy” they support is extremely malleable and heavily contingent on identity (which likewise is malleable)

Men and women might have had similar views on abortion decades ago, but there existed other issues where men and women have disagreed. Republicans and Democrats actually performed comparably among both men and women until 1980, when the gender gap started revealing itself.

I believe a lot of this could be attributed to Phyllis Schlafly's STOP ERA campaign, which stopped the ratification of the ERA dead in its tracks. Phyllis Schlafly, who had the endorsement of the conservative movement and the Republican Party, actually argued that the ERA would weaken traditional "female" gender roles and the family unit.

Phyllis Schlafly thus leaned hard into a traditional "feminine" aesthetic, but female voters shifted away from the Republican Party in 1980, the same year the GOP dropped support for the ERA, relative to the nation. It turns out, unsurprisingly, that female voters care more about their rights than any "feminine" aesthetic. (It had only been six years since women could open bank accounts without permission from their husbands, and it would not be decades later until women could serve in combat roles in the military.)

Policy has always been more important than gender roles. No matter how hard a movement/party tries to lean into a feminine aesthetic, if their policies limit the rights of women, they will lose the female vote.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Why are we drawing hysterical conclusions from a survey that shows only 36%(!!!) of respondents have an ideological preference?

atlas wouldn't exist without hysterical conclusions.

Frantically oscillating between “It’s over,” and “we’re so back,” regardless of the topic at hand.

[It’s so Joever]

Yes, CURRENTLY women are far more pro choice. But that simply was not always the case, https://news.gallup.com/poll/245618/abortion-trends-gender.aspx

And to be clear I do think there are a few limits to my theories on social voting. I do think if it directly and explicitly hurts one personally (and not just hypothetically) that can “break” the stranglehold. I don’t think a group will vote to mass kill themselves (at least not directly, ahem Florida and climate change)

That being said, I do legitimately think if you really framed it right and waited a few generations (cultural changes take time and inertia is very much a thing), you actually could over time get domesticity to become a “feminine” ideal among women. I obviously don’t support such a thing but I totally think it is possible.

Voters care more about “policy” sure, but what “policy” they support is extremely malleable and heavily contingent on identity (which likewise is malleable)

Men and women might have had similar views on abortion decades ago, but there existed other issues where men and women have disagreed. Republicans and Democrats actually performed comparably among both men and women until 1980, when the gender gap started revealing itself.

I believe a lot of this could be attributed to Phyllis Schlafly's STOP ERA campaign, which stopped the ratification of the ERA dead in its tracks. Phyllis Schlafly, who had the endorsement of the conservative movement and the Republican Party, actually argued that the ERA would weaken traditional "female" gender roles and the family unit.

Phyllis Schlafly thus leaned hard into a traditional "feminine" aesthetic, but female voters shifted away from the Republican Party in 1980, the same year the GOP dropped support for the ERA, relative to the nation. It turns out, unsurprisingly, that female voters care more about their rights than any "feminine" aesthetic. (It had only been six years since women could open bank accounts without permission from their husbands, and it would not be decades later until women could serve in combat roles in the military.)

Policy has always been more important than gender roles. No matter how hard a movement/party tries to lean into a feminine aesthetic, if their policies limit the rights of women, they will lose the female vote.

Sure you can say that! But the problem is what people view as their most important rights and necessities can change, and those are linked heavily to socialization and culture.

[Aurelius2]

There is honestly an easy way for progressives to fix this. If they emphasize the ways traditional gender roles hurt males, more males would be inclined to support feminist causes and thus identify as "liberal" without any loss of female support.

This does not appeal to men who aren't already 100% in the tank for Dems. It also does not appeal to most of the men who are already in the tank for Dems. Men do not want to be lectured on how they should cry more and go to therapy instead of the gym.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The poll numbers here seem wrong; I believe other polls show that high school boys are slightly more liberal than conservative, and high school girls are way more liberal.

Of course the COVID school shutdowns might have changed things.

Also people do get more conservative as they get older. The people who were 18-29 voted for Obama over McCain by about 30 points, but they were about 30-42 by 2020. The 30-45 group voted Biden +7 in 2020.

[Devils30]

Is there any actual data to back this up or just a poll from some organization with no polling history?

[Bootes Void]

Is there any actual data to back this up or just a poll from some organization with no polling history?

The post in the first page literally said about about 60% of men and women identify as moderate or with no political ideology at all. That alone should have ended the thread but instead you end up with 4 pages of users making nonsensical strawman arguments

[Ferguson97]

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

It's wild that you can come up with an entire thesis on why men have moved slightly to the right, but it is completely beyond your comprehension why women may have moved sharply to the left in recent years.

There are reasons for young women to move left but a lot of them are garbage. Women form 60% of college degrees and yet for some reason as this trend continues liberals start believing women face discrimination in achieving college degrees ? Other reasons are self serving like most people do such as debt forgivable
 Young Men either don't go to college or if they do they pick the degrees resulting in better jobs to pay off debt. Meanwhile young women join college and don't pay of their debt.

Lol please don’t tell me you’re one of those “it’s harder to be a man than a woman these days” lunatics.

[Ferguson97]

This does not appeal to men who aren't already 100% in the tank for Dems. It also does not appeal to most of the men who are already in the tank for Dems. Men do not want to be lectured on how they should cry more and go to therapy instead of the gym.

Also lol, “don’t go to therapy, go to the gym”, stop watching Andrew Tate

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

[Skill and Chance]

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

It's wild that you can come up with an entire thesis on why men have moved slightly to the right, but it is completely beyond your comprehension why women may have moved sharply to the left in recent years.

There are reasons for young women to move left but a lot of them are garbage. Women form 60% of college degrees and yet for some reason as this trend continues liberals start believing women face discrimination in achieving college degrees ? Other reasons are self serving like most people do such as debt forgivable
 Young Men either don't go to college or if they do they pick the degrees resulting in better jobs to pay off debt. Meanwhile young women join college and don't pay of their debt.

Lol please don’t tell me you’re one of those “it’s harder to be a man than a woman these days” lunatics.

In our society, men are way more likely to have both really great (president, fortune 500 CEO, 1st explorer to set foot on X, etc.) and really terrible (homelessness, drug addiction, violent death in your 20's, etc.) outcomes than women are.  Over the past generation or so, as the American left has become dominated by college grads, it has focused almost exclusively on equalizing the former and mostly ignored the latter.   

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

In the past education was not necessary as a marker of social status as today.  Agree that this could change in the future and balance could be restored.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841

Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

I would like to see if this is more “ social science “ degrees or “ applied sciences “ degrees.


Engineers are still in demand.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841
Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

I would like to see if this is more “ social science “ degrees or “ applied sciences “ degrees.


Engineers are still in demand.

Yes, this is probably something somewhat important in the grand scheme of things.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841
Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

I would like to see if this is more “ social science “ degrees or “ applied sciences “ degrees.


Engineers are still in demand.

Yes, this is probably something somewhat important in the grand scheme of things.

Well, with the way Biden is investing in “ STEM “ with the chips and science act, we will need more engineers over the years, but… the American education system sucks at teaching kids math so I don’t know.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841
Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

I would like to see if this is more “ social science “ degrees or “ applied sciences “ degrees.


Engineers are still in demand.

Yes, this is probably something somewhat important in the grand scheme of things.

This is complicated because true liberal arts degrees never added all that much over high school degrees in expected income even in the distant past.  That part hasn't really changed.  What has changed is that many non-quantitative but still somewhat vocational degrees (journalism, psychology, public policy, law especially) no longer add much in the way of expected income, in most cases nowhere near enough to justify the debt.  And AI is now poised to outcompete most writing-related degrees in the job market.

On the other hand, if you are skilled enough to design that AI, you can get 7 figures.  As has been pointed out, though, most 18 year-olds don't have these skills and are looking at a daunting decade+ of catching up in math to make up for the current state of public education.  Most people won't get there.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/ZachG932/status/1686959395450531841
Its really just women changing massively for no explicable reason(60% of all college degrees go to women) and maybe a small slight reactionary shift among men but its all blamed on misogyny.

This chart is a disaster.  A women will a college degree, however worthless, will not accept a husband that does not have a college drgree.  The marriage market not clearing will continue to get worse.

With the exception of 2 generations in the mid-late 20th century (probably due to the draft and the GI bill), the long run normal in the US is women being more educated than men, even back when they couldn't make much extra money from that education.  More women than men graduated high school in the 1920's.  More women than men could read in the 1820's.  The market will clear.  In a generation, there will likely be a ton of plumber/welder/carpenter with teacher/social worker/psychologist couples. 

Meanwhile, it seems like the labor market is shifting back somewhat toward compensating physical work over degrees, especially now that AI writing happened before any significant progress on robotic construction/home repair.  The correlation between years of formal education and income is clearly taking a hit. 

I would like to see if this is more “ social science “ degrees or “ applied sciences “ degrees.


Engineers are still in demand.

Yes, this is probably something somewhat important in the grand scheme of things.

This is complicated because true liberal arts degrees never added all that much over high school degrees in expected income even in the distant past.  That part hasn't really changed.  What has changed is that many non-quantitative but still somewhat vocational degrees (journalism, psychology, public policy, law especially) no longer add much in the way of expected income, in most cases nowhere near enough to justify the debt.  And AI is now poised to outcompete most writing-related degrees in the job market.

On the other hand, if you are skilled enough to design that AI, you can get 7 figures.  As has been pointed out, though, most 18 year-olds don't have these skills and are looking at a daunting decade+ of catching up in math to make up for the current state of public education.  

It should be noted that in the American education System, Law is not a undergrad program like say in the UK or Australia.


You get a undergrad program first in virtually any major ( some even major in engineering ! ) and then go onto a graduate law program.


I wonder if that should be changed…..


Either way, it should also be noted that most Americans go into a career not directly related to their major.


I know people, sales managers, vice presidents, who were sociology majors, English majors,