What National Polling Outfits do you like or trust the most for 2024?

[Radicalneo]

I neglected to included Selzer, for obvious reasons.

[Respect and Compassion]

If we were restricted to only the outlets you listed, then I will say that Emerson & Harris (are you referring to Harvard-Harris or HarrisX, either way my answer is the same) are the pollsters most likely to be right on point or even overestimate how well Trump does. I am fairly confident that all the other pollsters in your list are likely to overestimate how well Biden or the 2020 Democratic Nominee does.

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Keep in mind that there were many lower propensity Trump voters who stayed home in 2022 who will turn out in 2024. Yes, there are also lower propensity Biden voters who stayed home, but there is the possibility that the stayed-at-home-in-2022-but-turns-out-in-2024 voters are actually Trump friendly. This is in stark contrast to the stayed-at-home-in-2010-but-turned-out-in-2012 voters and the stayed-at-home-in-2014-but-turned-out-in-2016 voters. Given the realignment with college voters and noncollege voters, along with the 2022 disparate utilization of 2022 early voting for each side, we may have to look at what happened with the stayed-at-home-in-2018-but-turned-out-in-2020 voters for a more accurate expectation for what will happen in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

If we were restricted to only the outlets you listed, then I will say that Emerson & Harris (are you referring to Harvard-Harris or HarrisX, either way my answer is the same) are the pollsters most likely to be right on point or even overestimate how well Trump does. I am fairly confident that all the other pollsters in your list are likely to overestimate how well Biden or the 2020 Democratic Nominee does.

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Keep in mind that there were many lower propensity Trump voters who stayed home in 2022 who will turn out in 2024. Yes, there are also lower propensity Biden voters who stayed home, but there is the possibility that the stayed-at-home-in-2022-but-turns-out-in-2024 voters are actually Trump friendly. This is in stark contrast to the stayed-at-home-in-2010-but-turned-out-in-2012 voters and the stayed-at-home-in-2014-but-turned-out-in-2016 voters. Given the realignment with college voters and noncollege voters, along with the 2022 disparate utilization of 2022 early voting for each side, we may have to look at what happened with the stayed-at-home-in-2018-but-turned-out-in-2020 voters for a more accurate expectation for what will happen in 2024.

What about the possibility that things start to improve for Biden, given Trump’s indictments and the brightening economic outlook?

[Talk Elections Oracle]

If we were restricted to only the outlets you listed, then I will say that Emerson & Harris (are you referring to Harvard-Harris or HarrisX, either way my answer is the same) are the pollsters most likely to be right on point or even overestimate how well Trump does. I am fairly confident that all the other pollsters in your list are likely to overestimate how well Biden or the 2020 Democratic Nominee does.

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Keep in mind that there were many lower propensity Trump voters who stayed home in 2022 who will turn out in 2024. Yes, there are also lower propensity Biden voters who stayed home, but there is the possibility that the stayed-at-home-in-2022-but-turns-out-in-2024 voters are actually Trump friendly. This is in stark contrast to the stayed-at-home-in-2010-but-turned-out-in-2012 voters and the stayed-at-home-in-2014-but-turned-out-in-2016 voters. Given the realignment with college voters and noncollege voters, along with the 2022 disparate utilization of 2022 early voting for each side, we may have to look at what happened with the stayed-at-home-in-2018-but-turned-out-in-2020 voters for a more accurate expectation for what will happen in 2024.

100% this. During  the 2020 stretch run (and  that year's  entire campaign) a healthy majority  of  Americans  said  Biden *wasn't* too old  to be  an effective president. Now, that's flipped, and  a sizable majority  of  respondents  are telling  pollsters  that  Biden's  now  too old  to  serve  as POTUS  effectively.

He won't have  the luxury  of  being able to run  a sheltered campaign  this time around  again, either.

[Tekken_Guy]

If we were restricted to only the outlets you listed, then I will say that Emerson & Harris (are you referring to Harvard-Harris or HarrisX, either way my answer is the same) are the pollsters most likely to be right on point or even overestimate how well Trump does. I am fairly confident that all the other pollsters in your list are likely to overestimate how well Biden or the 2020 Democratic Nominee does.

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Keep in mind that there were many lower propensity Trump voters who stayed home in 2022 who will turn out in 2024. Yes, there are also lower propensity Biden voters who stayed home, but there is the possibility that the stayed-at-home-in-2022-but-turns-out-in-2024 voters are actually Trump friendly. This is in stark contrast to the stayed-at-home-in-2010-but-turned-out-in-2012 voters and the stayed-at-home-in-2014-but-turned-out-in-2016 voters. Given the realignment with college voters and noncollege voters, along with the 2022 disparate utilization of 2022 early voting for each side, we may have to look at what happened with the stayed-at-home-in-2018-but-turned-out-in-2020 voters for a more accurate expectation for what will happen in 2024.

100% this. During  the 2020 stretch run (and  that year's  entire campaign) a healthy majority  of  Americans  said  Biden *wasn't* too old  to be  an effective president. Now, that's flipped, and  a sizable majority  of  respondents  are telling  pollsters  that  Biden's  now  too old  to  serve  as POTUS  effectively.

He won't have  the luxury  of  being able to run  a sheltered campaign  this time around  again, either.

And how has opinion on Trump improved?

[PSOL]

Redfield Winton and that one Brazilian polling firm that was on the nose to the 2020 results, can’t remember the name

[WalterWhite]

Why is TIPP not on the list? It is probably the best pollster in the country.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If we were restricted to only the outlets you listed, then I will say that Emerson & Harris (are you referring to Harvard-Harris or HarrisX, either way my answer is the same) are the pollsters most likely to be right on point or even overestimate how well Trump does. I am fairly confident that all the other pollsters in your list are likely to overestimate how well Biden or the 2020 Democratic Nominee does.

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Keep in mind that there were many lower propensity Trump voters who stayed home in 2022 who will turn out in 2024. Yes, there are also lower propensity Biden voters who stayed home, but there is the possibility that the stayed-at-home-in-2022-but-turns-out-in-2024 voters are actually Trump friendly. This is in stark contrast to the stayed-at-home-in-2010-but-turned-out-in-2012 voters and the stayed-at-home-in-2014-but-turned-out-in-2016 voters. Given the realignment with college voters and noncollege voters, along with the 2022 disparate utilization of 2022 early voting for each side, we may have to look at what happened with the stayed-at-home-in-2018-but-turned-out-in-2020 voters for a more accurate expectation for what will happen in 2024.

100% this. During  the 2020 stretch run (and  that year's  entire campaign) a healthy majority  of  Americans  said  Biden *wasn't* too old  to be  an effective president. Now, that's flipped, and  a sizable majority  of  respondents  are telling  pollsters  that  Biden's  now  too old  to  serve  as POTUS  effectively.

He won't have  the luxury  of  being able to run  a sheltered campaign  this time around  again, either.

And how has opinion on Trump improved?

Opinion on Trump has got worse but it hasn't decreased as much as Biden's has.

[Radicalneo]

Why is TIPP not on the list? It is probably the best pollster in the country.

I like them a lot but they release like one H2H a cycle

[Ferguson97]

Didn’t Marist absolutely nail a lot of the statewide races?

[Spectator]

Fox and CNN if I had to choose, but generally none of them. We've been burned in both 2020 and 2022 in opposite directions.

[Aurelius2]

The ones where Trump is leading by the most (in both the general and the primary), and DeSantis is in third place or worse.

[DaleCooper]

Fox and CNN if I had to choose, but generally none of them. We've been burned in both 2020 and 2022 in opposite directions.

Something I've been doing lately (and we'll see how this works come 2024) is writing off polls that show candidates clearly outside of the range that they will almost certainly be in come election day. This is especially true when the poll shows a candidate beyond what they could conceivably get in a polarized environment. In other words, any poll that shows a combination of Biden below around about 47% and Trump winning with more than 48%, or a poll that shows Biden well above 50% and Trump below about 44-45%. There are floors and ceilings that these candidates are absolutely not going to exceed in today's polarized environment and polls that indicate they will are probably failing to reach an accurate sample of the electorate.

[Spectator]

Fox and CNN if I had to choose, but generally none of them. We've been burned in both 2020 and 2022 in opposite directions.

Something I've been doing lately (and we'll see how this works come 2024) is writing off polls that show candidates clearly outside of the range that they will almost certainly be in come election day. This is especially true when the poll shows a candidate beyond what they could conceivably get in a polarized environment. In other words, any poll that shows a combination of Biden below around about 47% and Trump winning with more than 48%, or a poll that shows Biden well above 50% and Trump below about 44-45%. There are floors and ceilings that these candidates are absolutely not going to exceed in today's polarized environment and polls that indicate they will are probably failing to reach an accurate sample of the electorate.

I basically do the same thing. Harvard-Harris is a complete joke. 2022 was basically an extension of 2020 results almost everywhere, with fluctuations here and there dependent on candidate quality. I don't believe Kari Lake was ever truly the favorite to win in Arizona in hindsight despite what the polls said at the time, for example. Nor was Mehmet Oz "surging." I got fooled once by the hype despite what the fundamentals said as Lake and Oz were extremely unpopular.

[DaleCooper]

Fox and CNN if I had to choose, but generally none of them. We've been burned in both 2020 and 2022 in opposite directions.

Something I've been doing lately (and we'll see how this works come 2024) is writing off polls that show candidates clearly outside of the range that they will almost certainly be in come election day. This is especially true when the poll shows a candidate beyond what they could conceivably get in a polarized environment. In other words, any poll that shows a combination of Biden below around about 47% and Trump winning with more than 48%, or a poll that shows Biden well above 50% and Trump below about 44-45%. There are floors and ceilings that these candidates are absolutely not going to exceed in today's polarized environment and polls that indicate they will are probably failing to reach an accurate sample of the electorate.

I basically do the same thing. Harvard-Harris is a complete joke. 2022 was basically an extension of 2020 results almost everywhere, with fluctuations here and there dependent on candidate quality. I don't believe Kari Lake was ever truly the favorite to win in Arizona in hindsight despite what the polls said at the time, for example. Nor was Mehmet Oz "surging." I got fooled once by the hype despite what the fundamentals said as Lake and Oz were extremely unpopular.

The ones that got me were the obviously inaccurate polls coming out of New Hampshire and especially Washington state for its Senate race.

[Averroës]

It depends.

In general, the major television networks can be relied on not to release total garbage. I voted for Fox and CBS for that reason, but I could have picked ABC or NBC just as easily.

It's hard to keep up with changes in the industry, but the news desks have enough skin in the game to be cautious about how they conduct polls and choose their partners.

[Averroës]

This is why the national popular vote aggregate as of right now is unnerving. Given that it's close to a tie and Biden is doing much worse relative to how he was doing in July 2019 (and also how he was doing for the rest of the 2019-2020 cycle), and given that various circumstances with respect to the economy & foreign policy & domestic political drama may get even worse for Biden in between now and November 5, 2024...we may be in for the kind of Red Year next year that 2022 failed to be.

Pollsters have adjusted to the errors they made in 2020. That doesn't mean that they won't make different errors in the future, but it's worth remembering that the science of measuring popular opinion is far from static, particularly in our era of dwindling response rates. Methods change and assumptions evolve.

The pollsters who predicted the Republican overperformance in 2020 tended to see a red mirage in 2022, so there's little reason to believe that they possess some special insight into the electorate or a methodological advantage that makes them more trustworthy.

[oldtimer]

Out of all of those Emerson has the longerst best tracking record, though they missed 2022.

It's a pitty that SurveyMoney and IBT/TIPP poll has disappeared or changed their methodology since 2020.

[Radicalneo]

Selzer is good