RNC debate qualifying (6 candidates have already qualified for the second debate in September)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

800 likely voters are necessary in such polls.

A candidate qualifies for the debate if that person gets 1%+ in at least 3 national polls, or in 2 national polls PLUS 2 different state polls from IA/NH/NV/SC.

The RNC has confirmed that the national Morning Consult poll in early July counts.

There have been 3 state polls with 800+ likely voters in New Hampshire (UNH), Iowa and South Carolina (Fox News).

There has also been a Kaplan poll with 800 likely voters, but the RNC has not confirmed it.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

If the Kaplan poll gets confirmed by the RNC, the following candidates have qualified so far, based on the 2 national + 2 early state rule:

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Pence
Christie

All of these candidates, except Pence, have also already achieved the donor threshold.

Hutchinson has 2 national polls + 1 state poll (Iowa), so he needs another poll from NH, NV or SC.

He has not crossed the donor threshold.

Burgum has zero national polls, but 2 state polls.

He is very close to reaching the donor threshold, but still needs 2 national polls.

All other candidates so far have no chance to meet either the polling or donor thresholds and will miss the August debate.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another poll from NH, NV or SC
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another 2 national polls

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Johnson
Hurd
Suarez
Elder

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Suarez is actually in the same situation as Burgum:

Both have 2 state polls, but need another 2 national polls to qualify.

Plus the donor threshold.

Burgum will easily clear the donor threshold because of his "Burgum Bucks".

But Suarez has entered the race so late that it's very unlikely he'll reach it.

[President Johnson]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another poll from NH, NV or SC
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another 2 national polls

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Johnson
Hurd
Suarez
Elder

Really stunning how Pence is struggling. The guy was vice president as late as two and a half years ago.

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another poll from NH, NV or SC
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another 2 national polls

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Johnson
Hurd
Suarez
Elder

Really stunning how Pence is struggling. The guy was vice president as late as two and a half years ago.

Pence is hated by both wings of the GOP. Establishment Republicans don't trust him because of his association with Trump and MAGA Republicans don't trust him because he refused to overturn the election.

I'm more surprised Burgum hasn't reached the donor threshold since he's paying people to donate to him.

[Talk Elections Oracle]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another poll from NH, NV or SC
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another 2 national polls

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Johnson
Hurd
Suarez
Elder

Really stunning how Pence is struggling. The guy was vice president as late as two and a half years ago.

Pence is hated by both wings of the GOP. Establishment Republicans don't trust him because of his association with Trump and MAGA Republicans don't trust him because he refused to overturn the election.

I'm more surprised Burgum hasn't reached the donor threshold since he's paying people to donate to him.

Burgum  will probably reach   the  donor threshold   but idrc  because   he won't  be  able  to  make it   to  the debate stage  anyway  due to   the  polling requirement.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

2 more national qualifying polls have been released today (Rasmussen, JMC).

Hutchinson scores in both and is now qualified for the first debate, based on the 3 national polls rule (he previously scored in the early July Morning Consult poll).

Burgum also scores in the JMC poll and he already has the 2 early state polls necessary. Burgum now just needs 1 more national poll.

Both candidates and Pence still have to pass the donor threshold.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another national poll
Suarez - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another 2 national polls

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Johnson
Hurd
Elder

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I made a mistake, Suarez actually has only 1 state poll (Iowa, Fox News), not 2.

In the SC Fox News poll and Univ. of NH poll, he scores 0.5% and 0%.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Burgum - must still reach the donor threshold + needs another national poll

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Elder
Hurd
Johnson
Suarez

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'm more surprised Burgum hasn't reached the donor threshold since he's paying people to donate to him.

He'll easily reach it.

There are still 4 weeks left.

[Aurelius2]

Burgum reached the donor threshold last week.

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/burgum-reaches-donor-threshold-for-debate-stage-poll-results-still-lacking/article_816a54b8-2655-11ee-ab27-4fd9c677d7a0.html

Just needs one more national poll.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Burgum reached the donor threshold last week.

Just needs one more national poll.

Thanks for pointing it out.

Here is my updated tracker:

Already qualified for the first Republican debate (by surpassing both the polling and donor thresholds, but who have not signed the pledge to support the eventual nominee yet):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie

Candidates that can still qualify:

Pence - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Hutchinson - must still reach the donor threshold, has qualified based on polling
Burgum - has qualified by reaching the donor threshold + needs another national poll

Candidates with a very low chance to qualify:

Elder
Hurd
Johnson
Suarez

[emailking]

Has anyone signed the pledge or that just hasn't happened yet?

[Duke 🇺🇸]

Has anyone signed the pledge or that just hasn't happened yet?

I believe I heard Trump has not signed it. I just assume he's above whatever rules the RNC has in place. Christie signed it and basically said he won't follow it if he does not want to.

[The Mikado]

Has anyone signed the pledge or that just hasn't happened yet?

I believe I heard Trump has not signed it. I just assume he's above whatever rules the RNC has in place. Christie signed it and basically said he won't follow it if he does not want to.

Trump probably won't sign because he won't debate. Why would he?

I think the "big" question is whether Asa Hutchinson will sign. He's the only person who might qualify (could still fail donors ofc) who is holding out at the moment. Could be the only person who would qualify but for the pledge, and as an old Southerner he'll have trouble doing the Chris Christie "I'll sign the oath but I'm lying" thing because people of Hutchinson's generation and location tend to take oaths a little more seriously than that.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Burgum has qualified for the debate:

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/presidential-debate-gop-candidates-schedule-moderators-polls-tracker/

The following 7 candidates are now qualified (but no pledge signed, or TBD):

Trump
DeSantis
Ramaswamy
Scott
Haley
Christie
Burgum

Pence and Hutchinson can still qualify, but have to reach the donor threshold until August 21.

Suarez and Hurd have only 1 qualifying poll each and have to reach the donor threshold.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Pence camapign announced he has more than 30.000 donors now.

His campaign expects to reach more than the 40.000 required donors within the next 10 days.

It should be enough for him to qualify for the debate.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4134068-pence-predicts-hell-meet-donor-threshold-for-debate-in-next-10-days/

[President Johnson]

Pence camapign announced he has more than 30.000 donors now.

His campaign expects to reach more than the 40.000 required donors within the next 10 days.

It should be enough for him to qualify for the debate.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4134068-pence-predicts-hell-meet-donor-threshold-for-debate-in-next-10-days/

I wonder whether Trump, should he even participate, will spend much time on Pence or whether he'll just go full steam against DeSandwich.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Has anyone signed the pledge or that just hasn't happened yet?

I believe I heard Trump has not signed it. I just assume he's above whatever rules the RNC has in place. Christie signed it and basically said he won't follow it if he does not want to.

Trump probably won't sign because he won't debate. Why would he?

I think the "big" question is whether Asa Hutchinson will sign. He's the only person who might qualify (could still fail donors ofc) who is holding out at the moment. Could be the only person who would qualify but for the pledge, and as an old Southerner he'll have trouble doing the Chris Christie "I'll sign the oath but I'm lying" thing because people of Hutchinson's generation and location tend to take oaths a little more seriously than that.

Asa Hutchinson won't get enough donors, he is far away from the goal.

It doesn't matter if he signs or won't sign the pledge, because he will not debate.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Pence camapign announced he has more than 30.000 donors now.

His campaign expects to reach more than the 40.000 required donors within the next 10 days.

It should be enough for him to qualify for the debate.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4134068-pence-predicts-hell-meet-donor-threshold-for-debate-in-next-10-days/

I wonder whether Trump, should he even participate, will spend much time on Pence or whether he'll just go full steam against DeSandwich.

I agree with Mikado that Trump won't appear at the debate. He has nothing to win and much to lose if he appears. He recently said he wants to stay away to see who can be his VP.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Pence is very close to reaching the donor threshold.

He received more than 7.000 donations in a single day after Trump's indictment and is now over 30.000 donations.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/anti-trump-republican-candidates-donor-bumps-attack/story?id=101986716

And even Hutchinson, who says he has about 20.000 right now, is receiving about 1.000 new donors per day.

With over two weeks left, it's possible for him to secure a debate spot if he can increase his daily donations to 1500.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4137385-hutchinson-says-hes-close-to-halfway-there-in-reaching-gop-presidential-debate-threshold/

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Perry Johnson has passed the 40.000 donor threshold according to his campaign:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/gop-presidential-donors-rnc-debate-stage

But he has zero qualifying polls.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Mike Pence finally qualifies for the first Republican debate:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/07/mike-pence-qualifying-debate-00110217

He is the 8th candidate to do so (Trump, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Scott, Haley, Christie, Burgum, Pence).

4 other candidates can still qualify:

Asa Hutchinson has enough polls, but only 25/40k donors so far.

Francis Suarez has the 40k necessary donors, but only 1 state poll. He either needs another early state poll + 2 national polls, or 3 national polls.

Perry Johnson has the 40k necessary donors, but no poll. He either needs 3 national polls, or 2 national polls + 2 early state polls.

Will Hurd has an early state poll and a national poll, but not enough donors yet. He needs the donors and an additional early state poll + a national poll, or 2 additional national polls.

Larry Elder has neither enough donors nor any polls.

https://www.politico.com/2024-election/presidential-debate-gop-candidates-schedule-moderators-polls-tracker/