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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2007 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Latest 2007 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Gabu (D-BC)MapProfile 05-08 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
boris78 (D-IL)MapProfile 05-08 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
ottermax (D-WA)MapProfile 05-16 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Gustaf (D-SWE)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
nini2000 (I-PA)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
liberalPA (O-TX)MapProfile 05-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
tddvandy (D-TN)Map 05-19 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Hooverin28 (C-IA)Map 05-19 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Aguagon (D-AZ)MapProfile 05-21 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Shilly (I-CA)MapProfile 05-22 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2007 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
ktapley (R-MD)Map 11-06 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Cylon Candidate (D-LA)MapProfile 11-04 4 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
BushCountry (I-IN)MapProfile 11-04 8 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
klrbzzz (I-KY)MapProfile 11-04 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
JohnnyLongtorso (I-VA)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
gkevgas (D-NY)Map 11-03 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
bgwah (D-WA)MapProfile 11-02 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
mercutio3000 (D-WA)Map 11-02 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
jackass342 (I-OH)Map 10-31 1 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
CultureKing (D-WA)MapProfile 10-31 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2007 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
downwithdaleft (R-NJ)
by texaslefty on 2007-11-29 @ 09:58:41
MapProfile 05-19 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 1
HarryHayfield (G-GBR)
by HarryHayfield on 2007-11-07 @ 03:51:59
MapProfile 09-02 1 D +2 0 (-2) 3 (+2) 0 (0) 1
etrush (R-NE)
by cnbpjb on 2007-10-21 @ 11:06:09
Map 10-20 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 1
jamespol (I-MO)
by texaslefty on 2007-09-20 @ 05:28:49
MapProfile 07-03 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 1
BrandonH (C-LA)
by D Adams on 2007-08-25 @ 15:11:00
MapProfile 05-18 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 4
allenw2001 (R-CA)
by Fabian Fastman on 2007-08-13 @ 14:54:37
Map 08-12 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 1
AuH2O (R-NC)
by jamespol on 2007-07-11 @ 23:59:56
Map 06-05 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 3
Kyle (D-TX)
by cnbpjb on 2007-07-03 @ 12:41:29
Map 06-21 1 D +2 0 (-2) 3 (+2) 0 (0) 2
Chris Brown (D-AZ)
by Chris Brown on 2007-06-21 @ 11:28:10
Map 06-17 2 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 2
gumball machine (L-CA)
by Eytan on 2007-06-20 @ 07:41:17
MapProfile 06-11 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 2
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2007 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 47119 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: April 07, 2007, 01:33:02 pm »

Are we going to have 2007 Gubernatorial Predictions like we did last year?
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2007, 09:10:41 am »

I really hope so.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #2 on: April 11, 2007, 10:33:13 am »

I doubt it is worth Dave's trouble to do full blown prediction maps for only 3 states.  Especially since Mississippi's governor seems to be a shoe-in for re-election.
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Harry
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« Reply #3 on: April 11, 2007, 04:10:58 pm »

I doubt it is worth Dave's trouble to do full blown prediction maps for only 3 states.  Especially since Mississippi's governor seems to be a shoe-in for re-election.
I know you said that just to agitate me, but I'll go ahead and say he's not a shoe-in.
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Gabu
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« Reply #4 on: April 11, 2007, 04:17:47 pm »

I doubt it is worth Dave's trouble to do full blown prediction maps for only 3 states.  Especially since Mississippi's governor seems to be a shoe-in for re-election.
I know you said that just to agitate me, but I'll go ahead and say he's not a shoe-in.

He's not a shoe-in, but that's only because people can't very well be undefined words.  Whether or not he's a shoo-in is up for debate, though. Tongue
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2007, 05:05:57 pm »

What we will probably see in 2007 is Kentucky and Louisiana both switching parties for no net change.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #6 on: April 11, 2007, 05:31:21 pm »

I doubt it is worth Dave's trouble to do full blown prediction maps for only 3 states.  Especially since Mississippi's governor seems to be a shoe-in for re-election.
I know you said that just to agitate me, but I'll go ahead and say he's not a shoe-in.

Sorry Harry, I actually didn't even think about you being from Mississippi.  I really wasn't trying to rile you.  However I stand by my claim that it seems unlikely he will be unseated come November.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2007, 12:15:06 pm »

Without Breaux, only one race will be competitive so I think it wouldn't be worth it.  Everyone will have R 40 or 50 or D 40 or 50, so almost everyone will tie.  It would also be reasonable to think Barbour or Jindal could break 60
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Harry
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« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2007, 12:39:30 pm »

It would also be reasonable to think Barbour could break 60
No that would actually be unreasonable.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2007, 02:36:22 pm »

It would also be reasonable to think Barbour could break 60
No that would actually be unreasonable.

Lott was able to break 60 and sure Barbour will too
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Harry
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2007, 11:08:25 am »

It would also be reasonable to think Barbour could break 60
No that would actually be unreasonable.

Lott was able to break 60 and sure Barbour will too
I'll bet you $100 (or any other amount of money) that Barbour does not break 60.  I'll even give you some odds.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2007, 11:10:36 am »

 Barbour will break 60%
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Harry
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2007, 11:16:06 am »

want to take the bet too?

The only Republicans to ever break 60% in Mississippi are entrenched Senators and downballot races that we simply didn't have a remotely good candidate for.
There is no way that Eaves will be held under 40, considering his money and the demographics of Mississippi.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2007, 11:44:41 am »

I don't care enough to bet on it Roll Eyes
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Mine eyes have seen the glory of the crushing of the Trump
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« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2007, 03:53:03 pm »

Actually considering that even Bush failed to break 60%, I can't see Barbour doing it. Just too many blacks. Same in Louisiana. My predictions:

KY D >50
LA R >50
MS R >50
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Jaggerjack
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2007, 09:45:30 pm »

Louisiana's result is obvious. With the loss of New Orlean's blacks, she's doomed to be Santorumized.
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MAS117
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2007, 10:44:49 pm »

She? Govenor Blanco is not running for re-election.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2007, 02:12:24 am »

She? Govenor Blanco is not running for re-election.
Recent reports indicate she may be reconsidering given the current lack of a strong Democratic nominee.  The current Democratic front runner appears to be a state senator who literally switched back to being a Democrat just last week on April 26th.
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MAS117
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« Reply #18 on: May 02, 2007, 07:45:42 pm »

She? Govenor Blanco is not running for re-election.
Recent reports indicate she may be reconsidering given the current lack of a strong Democratic nominee.  The current Democratic front runner appears to be a state senator who literally switched back to being a Democrat just last week on April 26th.

I know the situation but this thread acts if he is running and as of now she is not.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2007, 09:13:30 pm »

MS = Safe Republican
LA = Likely Republican
KY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem.  SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2007, 11:35:17 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2007, 11:40:06 am by Dave Leip »

2007 Gubernatorial Predictions are now online.  Its a port of the 2006 version, so please let me know if you find something that doesn't seem right.

Enjoy,
Dave
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Padfoot
padfoot714
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« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2007, 07:03:37 pm »

I stand corrected. Smiley
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Alcon
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« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2007, 07:30:41 pm »
« Edited: May 08, 2007, 07:34:11 pm by Alcon »

Thanks Dave!

MS = Safe Republican
LA = Likely Republican
KY = Lean Dem - the reason why it lies in this category is b/c I want to see who the Dem nominee is; whether Fletcher is the Rep nominee (and I now suspect he will be); and I want to see a few horse race polls so I can see how weak (or maybe not as weak) Fletcher is against the Dem.  SUSA approval polls are nice for us to make comments, but they are not dispositive in horse races.

Why bother reposting exactly what you said!

Although I personally don't call anything safe this far out, it would take a miracle in Mississippi for the Democrats.
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Verily
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« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2007, 08:48:22 pm »
« Edited: May 08, 2007, 08:50:26 pm by Verily »

Mississippi: Strong GOP
Louisiana: Lean GOP
Kentucky: Lean Dem

Even if Anne Northup wins the primary (which looks unlikely, given that she trailed in both primary polls we've seen), she is not the conservative-populist kind of Republican who can win over leftist rural Kentucky. She'd probably do better somewhere like Ohio that is less Republican but has more suburbs to draw from. Fletcher would lose badly to any of the leading Democrats.

Louisiana is only Lean GOP because we don't know the Democratic candidate yet and because the demographics of Louisiana are unpredictable so poll weighting may be inaccurate. Finally, Jindal lost in 2003 largely due to racism; we may see that repeat in 2007.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2007, 08:57:22 pm »

If it's Beshear versus Fletcher, I think Beshear will win by at least 20 points. I think it could be 2-to-1. That is, unless Beshear says something incredibly idiotic.

For the life of me, I cannot understand how Fletcher got in there in the first place (even with all the GOP voter fraud that Kentucky has become known for).
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