Midterm Senate Polling Bias vs. Presidential Statewide Polling Bias
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  Midterm Senate Polling Bias vs. Presidential Statewide Polling Bias
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Author Topic: Midterm Senate Polling Bias vs. Presidential Statewide Polling Bias  (Read 1179 times)
WalterWhite
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2023, 07:24:59 PM »


I think they meant in terms of the House popular vote, which was D+8.6%. By that metric, 2018 was a blue wave year.

But we are not concerned with nationwide statistics here; we are concerned with statewide polling. From the perspective of statewide statistics, 2018 was not an exceptional year for Democrats; they lost a net of two Senates seats (gained Arizona and Nevada; but lost Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota---the first three of which Democrats were expected to win) and lost multiple gubernatorial races they were expected to win, namely Ohio and Florida.
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