Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really don't understand Republican obsession with abortion laws. Especially since this caused that much backlash. Is that really the hill they want to die upon?

They are stuck between a rock (their base has wanted this for 50 years and finally has the opportunity to do it) and a hard place (the overwhelming majority of the country doesn’t want it).

Case in point:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1689419860290285568

[Schiff for Senate]

Most ballot initiatives are falsely marketed to voters, and a "yes" vote for the voter has unforseen consequences (although the consequences were not just forseen, but PLANNED by the moneyed interests that usually frame these ballot questions).

Funnily enough, this is the PERFECT description for this very initiative that you are in favor of. As for the "moneyed interests," in this case there appears to be one particular moneyed interest from outside OH who for some reason has a big stake in this -

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1684661078339239936?s=20

So the lack of self-awareness in writing this, in this thread, as you proclaim your support for Issue 1, is as ironic as it is astounding.

It's not astounding at all.  Moneyed interests are on both sides of the issue.  Most ballot initiatives seek to use appeals that are manipulative and dishonest, so I view a 60 percent threshold as a means of blocking some stupidity.

Your personal attack on me was rather smarmy.  I figured I'd mention it to help you with your own self-awareness level.  Welcome to the Forum.

This is very patronizing, particularly from someone who considers themselves to be anti-elitist. The people are intelligent enough (though you're welcome to consider yourself an exception) to make decisions for themselves without arbitrary barriers blocking them from doing so.

As you yourself said, there are "moneyed interests" on both sides of each issue, and so whichever side does a better job at persuading the people should win. It's not as if the yea side of ballot initiatives is automatically the side that receives more support from the establishment; both sides have various interests backing them up (in this case, it's well-established that the side pushing for Issue 1 was the more "moneyed" special interest).

Ultimately, though, you and I both know what the amendment's real purpose was, and on the off chance that you didn't, State Rep. Brian Stewart, the amendment's author, literally admitted that the purpose was to block the upcoming referendums on abortion, a higher minimum wage and fair redistricting from passing.

And if your real problem is the "moneyed interests," not a higher minimum wage or abortion rights or laws preventing GOP gerrymandering, then how about some stricter campaign finance laws?

[Nyvin]

NO got ~30% in OH-01. Reps are done there for the forseeable future imo.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ohios-issue-1-smackdown/

Issue 1 lost OH-1 by a 30% margin that is, but yeah, the district is gone for Republicans as it's drawn now.  The trend is too strong.

[Skill and Chance]

I really don't understand Republican obsession with abortion laws. Especially since this caused that much backlash. Is that really the hill they want to die upon?

Answer: Nationalization of politics.

White Evangelical Protestants are the ones who actually like and support this policy. Catholic and non-White opinion is predicated and influenced by other factors that split the groups into unequal sizes. For example Louisiana rural White Catholics have similar opinions to their Evangelical neighbors, but the same cannot be said of northeastern Irish descendants. The sum total of these groups though oppose bans at the national level, even if individual subgroups may have differing opinions.
 And obviously this is before we talk about Jewish, agnostic, non-religious, and all the other smaller denominations that usually are fierce opponents.

White Evangelical Protestants are almost entirely a GOP electorate. As seen on the map, they make up a majority - or something very close to it - of the Republican vote in at least 15 states.  When taking into account other areas where they have significant influence, like North Florida and East Texas, we come to something very close to half the electorates of the National party: Congressmen, Senators, and Electoral Votes.

A smarter, or more importantly a less nationalized system would see the GOP in the Evangelical areas support bans. They are following their electorate and the normal political channels of influence. Reminder that many of these states had referendums on abortion bans pre-2022, to set up trigger-laws that would go into effect if Roe was overturned. And they passed. In the rest of the country, the majority, they would oppose such efforts, or limit the policy to restrictions at a level acceptable to their state's electorate. But because identity politics is nationalized, and the Evangelical identity has such a presence within the GOP, they can keep pushing and won't face any internal party opposition.

This isn't quite right.  In abortion referenda in recent times, the only places where pro-life is matching or exceeding Generic R are super Catholic and/or majority-minority, e.g. Mercer County, OH, Imperial County, CA, Wayne County, MI.  Louisiana has thus far been the only state where pro-life ran ahead of Trump statewide.  Yes, pro-life is winning the rural Evangelical belt, but often with dramatically reduced margins compared to generic R.  Consider that the results in Michigan and Kentucky weren't that different, and Kansas was "left" of Michigan! 

*Some of this gap may be attributable to no being the pro-choice vote in KS and KY, while no was the pro-life vote in MI.  However, this would make Louisiana stand out even more as yes was the pro-life vote there. 

[DaleCooper]

Anecdotally I always found that there was some silent reluctance towards the pro-life movement even in conservative evangelical circles. Not so much that these people supported abortion rights, but more so that they didn't see what the hell it had to do with Christianity which is what they were there to practice and study. They just keep silent about it because they don't want some church lady to start sobbing about how they're killing the babies again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anecdotally I always found that there was some silent reluctance towards the pro-life movement even in conservative evangelical circles. Not so much that these people supported abortion rights, but more so that they didn't see what the hell it had to do with Christianity which is what they were there to practice and study. They just keep silent about it because they don't want some church lady to start sobbing about how they're killing the babies again.

That makes me wonder if mainstream evangelicals and hipster Christians are closer on abortion than you'd expect. Like for example this girl attended my church at the time she made this video:

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

Appalachian far eastern areas stand out. 

The cluster of counties in Western Ohio where "Yes" held up well compared to presidential margins stands out the most to me, though it's unsurprising. These are some of the most inflexible, overwhelmingly Republican counties in the state, and many of them (Shelby, Mercer) have trended Republican in every presidential election since 2000.

This reminds me of the 2022 KY abortion amendment results where support of abortion outpaced Biden throughout much of the state.

[WalterWhite]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

This could be good news for Ohio Democrats if they capitalize on it. Democrats need to win in Eastern Ohio to win the state. Of late, that region has been trending more rightwards.

However, the results here show that this region of Ohio is more pro-choice than presidential elections would suggest. In fact, Northeastern Ohio is actually more pro-choice than the entire state according to these results. With that in mind, if Democrats capitalize on abortion, they could narrow up or even outright win a lot of these Northeastern Ohio counties, narrowing up the state dramatically.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Most ballot initiatives are falsely marketed to voters, and a "yes" vote for the voter has unforseen consequences (although the consequences were not just forseen, but PLANNED by the moneyed interests that usually frame these ballot questions).

Funnily enough, this is the PERFECT description for this very initiative that you are in favor of. As for the "moneyed interests," in this case there appears to be one particular moneyed interest from outside OH who for some reason has a big stake in this -

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1684661078339239936?s=20

So the lack of self-awareness in writing this, in this thread, as you proclaim your support for Issue 1, is as ironic as it is astounding.

It's not astounding at all.  Moneyed interests are on both sides of the issue.  Most ballot initiatives seek to use appeals that are manipulative and dishonest, so I view a 60 percent threshold as a means of blocking some stupidity.

Your personal attack on me was rather smarmy.  I figured I'd mention it to help you with your own self-awareness level.  Welcome to the Forum.

This is very patronizing, particularly from someone who considers themselves to be anti-elitist. The people are intelligent enough (though you're welcome to consider yourself an exception) to make decisions for themselves without arbitrary barriers blocking them from doing so.

As you yourself said, there are "moneyed interests" on both sides of each issue, and so whichever side does a better job at persuading the people should win. It's not as if the yea side of ballot initiatives is automatically the side that receives more support from the establishment; both sides have various interests backing them up (in this case, it's well-established that the side pushing for Issue 1 was the more "moneyed" special interest).

Ultimately, though, you and I both know what the amendment's real purpose was, and on the off chance that you didn't, State Rep. Brian Stewart, the amendment's author, literally admitted that the purpose was to block the upcoming referendums on abortion, a higher minimum wage and fair redistricting from passing.

And if your real problem is the "moneyed interests," not a higher minimum wage or abortion rights or laws preventing GOP gerrymandering, then how about some stricter campaign finance laws?

There are SO many things I have far more experience at than you, young man.  One of those things is living under the foolishness of referenda that result in new laws voted in with unforeseen consequences that cannot be easily reversed.  Florida has many of these laws that were voted in as Constitutional Amendments that cause a lack of flexibility in solving problems when flexibility is needed.  If there's a problem with laws voted in as Constitutional Amendments, the Legislature can't just "fix them".

I am very much a "republican (small "r")"  I believe in representative government, and I believe that democracy, in its purest form, devolves into mob rule.  We have democratic features in our republic, but we are a republic that allows us to choose our leaders, but leaves pathways to undo the stupidity of poorly chosen leaders when that time comes.

[Vice President Christian Man]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

This could be good news for Ohio Democrats if they capitalize on it. Democrats need to win in Eastern Ohio to win the state. Of late, that region has been trending more rightwards.

However, the results here show that this region of Ohio is more pro-choice than presidential elections would suggest. In fact, Northeastern Ohio is actually more pro-choice than the entire state according to these results. With that in mind, if Democrats capitalize on abortion, they could narrow up or even outright win a lot of these Northeastern Ohio counties, narrowing up the state dramatically.

Dems would be more successful in that region if they became neo-nationalist and favored guns rights but doing so would alienate much of the base. Ryan tried making some appeals in this area but that wasn't strong enough. I think there's a general hatred of both the establishment and the Justice Democrat's in the area. Who they need is someone like Trafficiant who was a de facto Republican by the time he died.

[WalterWhite]

Vance was already gonna lose but he was saved by DeWine

It was Trump not DeWine who pushed Vance over the finish line.

You do know the person to whom you are responding, right?

[Skill and Chance]

Anecdotally I always found that there was some silent reluctance towards the pro-life movement even in conservative evangelical circles. Not so much that these people supported abortion rights, but more so that they didn't see what the hell it had to do with Christianity which is what they were there to practice and study. They just keep silent about it because they don't want some church lady to start sobbing about how they're killing the babies again.

From a literal as possible sola scriptura perspective, it’s actually somewhat harder to make the pro-life case. There are some verses in Exodus that read pretty ambivalent about miscarriages and there’s also never a word for word condemnation of abortion to be found in.  The more you are willing to consider church tradition and associated writings, the stronger the pro-life case gets (Didache and the Epistle of Barnabas explicitly condemn it when interpreting Thou Shalt Not Kill for gentile converts).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

This map should be a reminder that the "Ohio-C" voted for Democrats and NW Ohio voted for Republicans in the 2000s, not due to stuffy traditions from the distant past, but due to palpable divisions on 'hot button' social issues. It's very easy to find working class people in Appalachia who are pro-choice, especially in towns that were full of immigrants one century ago. You have to distinguish between these people, who mostly voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, against pro-life zealots who have always been Republicans in, say, Mercer County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anecdotally I always found that there was some silent reluctance towards the pro-life movement even in conservative evangelical circles. Not so much that these people supported abortion rights, but more so that they didn't see what the hell it had to do with Christianity which is what they were there to practice and study. They just keep silent about it because they don't want some church lady to start sobbing about how they're killing the babies again.

From a literal as possible sola scriptura perspective, it’s actually somewhat harder to make the pro-life case, because there are some verses in Exodus that read pretty ambivalent about miscarriages and there’s also never a word for word condemnation of abortion to be found.  The more you are willing to consider church tradition and associated writings, the stronger the pro-life case gets much stronger (Didache and the Epistle of Barnabas explicitly condemn it when interpreting Thou Shalt Not Kill for gentile converts).

Even the Roman Catholic Church didn't oppose abortion for most its history, at least in the early phases of pregnancy, and yes, abortions did happen before modern medicine, Ancient Rome was full of recipes for certain concoctions that would induce a miscarriage and they were still popular throughout the Middle Ages. At the time of the American Revolution, terminating a pregnancy was legal pretty much everywhere. Abortion only became controversial in 19th century once it became clear that it was a gateway to 20th century style "sexual freedom", which is when the Catholics started condemning it and most other churches followed suit.

The first ban on intentionally terminating a pregnancy in the US wasn't passed until 1827 (in New York, ironic by today's standards), and Catholic countries banned it around the same time as well. But fact is abortion was legal in the Puritan colonies that carried out the Salem witch trials and where The Scarlet Letter is set.

[Schiff for Senate]

NO got ~30% in OH-01. Reps are done there for the forseeable future imo.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ohios-issue-1-smackdown/

Issue 1 lost OH-1 by a 30% margin that is, but yeah, the district is gone for Republicans as it's drawn now.  The trend is too strong.

I mean a 30 point loss in OH-01 isn't exactly surprising, nor is it very different from the overall statewide swing. OH went from Trump+8 in 2020 to No+14, or a 22 point swing leftward. If OH-01, which was Biden+8, went to roughly No+30. That's pretty much the exact same swing as the state as a whole. A 30 point loss seems very impressive until you consider the overall statewide result, and of course the fact that the new OH-01 was already quite Democratic to begin with (and of course we all know that, but there may be a tendency to still consider OH-01 to be one of those left-trending districts which still has a GOP advantage...after all, that's how it was for a while).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I didn't get to comment on this matter since it happened on Tuesday, but as I expected, we got a very positive result for the future of democracy and reproductive rights.

I just don't want to jump to conclusions about what this might mean for future elections. It definitely doesn't mean that Biden, or maybe any Democrat, can win it in a presidential election again. Though I guess a case can be made that Sherrod Brown now knows where in the state to focus and with what issues for 2024 even better now, LaRose may be slightly humiliated due to his affiliation with the initiative, and that there is still at least some sanity in Northeastern Ohio still, as far right as it has moved over the years. The other parts of the state where those 43% who were manipulated into voting in favor of diluting their rights are hopeless though.

Before extrapolating more I think I want to wait for the November abortion question. I expect that it will pass fairly easily, but by less than Issue 1's defeat.

[Badger]

The one downside to issue one getting so badly clobbered is that it has likely tarnished prospects of Larose winning the primary, as he would be an easier candidate to defeat than Matt Dolan

[Fuzzy Bear]

DailyKos made this map which shows the margin difference between the ballot issue results so far and the 2020 presidential results:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1689327543285846022

So no counties trended more in the yes direction compared to Biden's percentages. I can't say I'm surprised but thanks for posting, it's really informative.

This could be good news for Ohio Democrats if they capitalize on it. Democrats need to win in Eastern Ohio to win the state. Of late, that region has been trending more rightwards.

However, the results here show that this region of Ohio is more pro-choice than presidential elections would suggest. In fact, Northeastern Ohio is actually more pro-choice than the entire state according to these results. With that in mind, if Democrats capitalize on abortion, they could narrow up or even outright win a lot of these Northeastern Ohio counties, narrowing up the state dramatically.

Dems would be more successful in that region if they became neo-nationalist and favored guns rights but doing so would alienate much of the base. Ryan tried making some appeals in this area but that wasn't strong enough. I think there's a general hatred of both the establishment and the Justice Democrat's in the area. Who they need is someone like Trafficiant who was a de facto Republican by the time he died.

Tim Ryan was a poser.

Jim Trafficant was a legitimate populist until his innermost fondness for Nazi Collaborators came to the surface.  The question about Trafficant is one of whether he was born a lunatic or if he had toe work at it.

[politicallefty]

Looks like the final margin will be 57-43. FWIW, the following counties voted No by a wider margin than the state did:
-Athens
-Cuyahoga
-Delaware (barely)
-Franklin
-Hamilton
-Lake
-Lorain
-Lucas
-Mahoning (barely)
-Montgomery
-Portage (barely)
-Summit

Erie and Trumbull pretty much exactly tracked the statewide margin, while Wood voted No by a slightly smaller margin than the state. I know it's far from a perfect comparison, but I feel like this is a potential indicator of what counties Sherrod would need to win.

Also I'm surprised Warren voted No by more than Butler did. Butler is slightly less white, but Warren is way richer and more college-educated.

If you compare the counties relative to the state as a whole, the map is nearly identical to the 2020 presidential map. Four counties flipped sides in relation to the state as a whole. Only one county flipped from left of the state as a whole to the right (though by a very small margin): Wood. The three that flipped in the other direction, interestingly, are all part of OH-14. Trumbull and Portage flipped from right of the state as a whole to just to the left by small margins. I think the most noteworthy shift is Lake, which went from Trump+14 to No+18 (one of only six counties in that state that swung over 30% on the overall margin compared to the state's 22% shift). Lake County didn't even vote to the left of the state when Obama was on the ballot. (The rightward shift of a suburban county like Lake is part of what has kept Ohio out of reach for Democrats in recent years) That seems significant to me, though I can't say what it means apart from the suburbs clearly being in revolt on issues such as these. At the very least, it does show a path for Sherrod Brown.

[politicallefty]

I did a little digging and pulled up the marriage amendment from 2004. Only one county voted against (Athens), but I was interested to see the counties that voted to the left of the statewide vote, in order (only including counties that voted >40% No):

-Athens
-Franklin
-Cuyahoga
-Hamilton
-Portage
-Lucas
-Lake
-Summit
-Montgomery
-Lorain
-Wood
-Geauga

(Ashtabula and Medina voted to the left of the state, but voted over 60% Yes.)

Apart from Delaware County, maybe a lot less has changed than we might think. At the least, it's clear that the counties above are the more socially liberal counties of Ohio.

[WalterWhite]

I did a little digging and pulled up the marriage amendment from 2004. Only one county voted against (Athens), but I was interested to see the counties that voted to the left of the statewide vote, in order (only including counties that voted >40% No):

-Athens
-Franklin
-Cuyahoga
-Hamilton
-Portage
-Lucas
-Lake
-Summit
-Montgomery
-Lorain
-Wood
-Geauga

(Ashtabula and Medina voted to the left of the state, but voted over 60% Yes.)

Apart from Delaware County, maybe a lot less has changed than we might think. At the least, it's clear that the counties above are the more socially liberal counties of Ohio.

Forgot Mahoning, too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over for Rs in OH

[politicallefty]

I did a little digging and pulled up the marriage amendment from 2004. Only one county voted against (Athens), but I was interested to see the counties that voted to the left of the statewide vote, in order (only including counties that voted >40% No):

-Athens
-Franklin
-Cuyahoga
-Hamilton
-Portage
-Lucas
-Lake
-Summit
-Montgomery
-Lorain
-Wood
-Geauga

(Ashtabula and Medina voted to the left of the state, but voted over 60% Yes.)

Apart from Delaware County, maybe a lot less has changed than we might think. At the least, it's clear that the counties above are the more socially liberal counties of Ohio.

Forgot Mahoning, too

On the marriage amendment, Mahoning (62.9% Yes) was to the right of the state (61.7% Yes). Trumbull was closer, just very slightly to the right of the state then. Both do seem to track close to the statewide margin on social issues though.

[TwinGeeks99]

If anything, the results of this referendum as well as the one in November will provide Sherrod Brown with a blueprint of county benchmarks for his path to victory next year.