Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes wins, but I'm not sure what the margin will be.

I would be interested in your opinion as to why as you are one of the few individuals believing it will pass. Any thoughts?

I'm a but of a doomer on this, especially on a ballot referendum where no one has a clue what they are voting for.

[AZdude]

Surprised this thread isn't livelier, unless Issue 1 is being followed somewhere else on here.  Anyway, any input from locals on how this is looking?  Since the ONU poll which had it tied (albeit with 20% undecided), has there been any other polling? Anecdotally people are saying that it's tightened noticeably, but you know how anecdotes go.

I really, really hope this goes down hard.  I don't care much about abortion one way or another, but that sort of blatant power grab is pathetic, not to mention how much harder it would be to get anything decent passed there.

[Badger]

Surprised this thread isn't livelier, unless Issue 1 is being followed somewhere else on here.  Anyway, any input from locals on how this is looking?  Since the ONU poll which had it tied (albeit with 20% undecided), has there been any other polling? Anecdotally people are saying that it's tightened noticeably, but you know how anecdotes go.

I really, really hope this goes down hard.  I don't care much about abortion one way or another, but that sort of blatant power grab is pathetic, not to mention how much harder it would be to get anything decent passed there.

Anecdotally, there's a lot of yes signs popping up. Plus they are prevalent in rural conservative communities as one would expect. This is anecdotal from anti-issue one Facebook threads I have lurked on, but still someone concerning.

I think posters point that on referendums no is the default choice for most voters, and thus we've got a decent chance of a large chunk of those undecided voters going in our favor.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

60.4% No
39.6% Yes

[Rjjr77]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

[Tekken_Guy]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

Nobody is expecting a majority-Democratic electorate. This is not a partisan race and I anticipate a lot of Republican voters voting NO.

[Rjjr77]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

Nobody is expecting a majority-Democratic electorate. This is not a partisan race and I anticipate a lot of Republican voters voting NO.

ODP has put a huge emphasis on early voting, and that lead should be much bigger than 12% and while I also believe we'll see a lot of crossover votes, that difference is not where it should be. I would say this issue has certainly defined itself as more partisan over the past month

[Tekken_Guy]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

Nobody is expecting a majority-Democratic electorate. This is not a partisan race and I anticipate a lot of Republican voters voting NO.

ODP has put a huge emphasis on early voting, and that lead should be much bigger than 12% and while I also believe we'll see a lot of crossover votes, that difference is not where it should be. I would say this issue has certainly defined itself as more partisan over the past month

Do you not remember what happened when Arkansas and South Dakota tried to raise the threshold? They lost badly. How do you think that will play out in Ohio, a bluer state?

[Rjjr77]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

Nobody is expecting a majority-Democratic electorate. This is not a partisan race and I anticipate a lot of Republican voters voting NO.

ODP has put a huge emphasis on early voting, and that lead should be much bigger than 12% and while I also believe we'll see a lot of crossover votes, that difference is not where it should be. I would say this issue has certainly defined itself as more partisan over the past month

Do you not remember what happened when Arkansas and South Dakota tried to raise the threshold? They lost badly. How do you think that will play out in Ohio, a bluer state?

I do, but the volatility of an off year special is what makes this one a bit more interesting

[Tekken_Guy]

According to the AP the Dem to Rep edge in Early and absentee was only 12% that gives leaning to a much closer race. This may just be a coin flip, I think No probably prevails 53-47

Nobody is expecting a majority-Democratic electorate. This is not a partisan race and I anticipate a lot of Republican voters voting NO.

ODP has put a huge emphasis on early voting, and that lead should be much bigger than 12% and while I also believe we'll see a lot of crossover votes, that difference is not where it should be. I would say this issue has certainly defined itself as more partisan over the past month

Do you not remember what happened when Arkansas and South Dakota tried to raise the threshold? They lost badly. How do you think that will play out in Ohio, a bluer state?

I do, but the volatility of an off year special is what makes this one a bit more interesting

Democrats generally have the higher-propensity voting base in a midwestern state like Ohio, so turnout dynamics should favor them more than a November election would.

[The Mikado]

Going with No sailing past well north of 60%. Voters don't like too-cute-by-half power grabs by politicians.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/RepWeinstein/status/1687852203640238080?s=20

[Dave Hedgehog]

Wow. Encouraging sign for the No camp there.

Surprised DeWine managed to clear such a large margin in his reelection last year (even though him winning was never in doubt) as there's obviously so many R's in his own state who have it in for him.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RepWeinstein/status/1687852203640238080?s=20

I have seen quite a few posts on social media of prominent Republicans who are outside the formal political institutions - that's important - going hard against issue 1.  The line of criticism being that this all but removes the public handbrake on limiting government action.

[Schiff for Senate]

Most ballot initiatives are falsely marketed to voters, and a "yes" vote for the voter has unforseen consequences (although the consequences were not just forseen, but PLANNED by the moneyed interests that usually frame these ballot questions).

Funnily enough, this is the PERFECT description for this very initiative that you are in favor of. As for the "moneyed interests," in this case there appears to be one particular moneyed interest from outside OH who for some reason has a big stake in this -

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1684661078339239936?s=20

So the lack of self-awareness in writing this, in this thread, as you proclaim your support for Issue 1, is as ironic as it is astounding.

[BigZuck08]

I say No over 60%. Even hardcore MAGA fans are against it, as mentioned in an earlier post.

I hope I'm right and that Ohioans reject this blatant power grab by politicians. #VoteNoOnIssue1OH

[Fuzzy Bear]

Most ballot initiatives are falsely marketed to voters, and a "yes" vote for the voter has unforseen consequences (although the consequences were not just forseen, but PLANNED by the moneyed interests that usually frame these ballot questions).

Funnily enough, this is the PERFECT description for this very initiative that you are in favor of. As for the "moneyed interests," in this case there appears to be one particular moneyed interest from outside OH who for some reason has a big stake in this -

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1684661078339239936?s=20

So the lack of self-awareness in writing this, in this thread, as you proclaim your support for Issue 1, is as ironic as it is astounding.

It's not astounding at all.  Moneyed interests are on both sides of the issue.  Most ballot initiatives seek to use appeals that are manipulative and dishonest, so I view a 60 percent threshold as a means of blocking some stupidity.

Your personal attack on me was rather smarmy.  I figured I'd mention it to help you with your own self-awareness level.  Welcome to the Forum.

[politicallefty]

All polls will close tomorrow at 7:30 Eastern. We should expect the first results shortly thereafter, though they will likely be heavy in early vote.

[Person Man]

Most ballot initiatives are falsely marketed to voters, and a "yes" vote for the voter has unforseen consequences (although the consequences were not just forseen, but PLANNED by the moneyed interests that usually frame these ballot questions).

Funnily enough, this is the PERFECT description for this very initiative that you are in favor of. As for the "moneyed interests," in this case there appears to be one particular moneyed interest from outside OH who for some reason has a big stake in this -

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1684661078339239936?s=20

So the lack of self-awareness in writing this, in this thread, as you proclaim your support for Issue 1, is as ironic as it is astounding.

It's not astounding at all.  Moneyed interests are on both sides of the issue.  Most ballot initiatives seek to use appeals that are manipulative and dishonest, so I view a 60 percent threshold as a means of blocking some stupidity.

Your personal attack on me was rather smarmy.  I figured I'd mention it to help you with your own self-awareness level.  Welcome to the Forum.

You would think it would be the other way but fine. I’m personally more worried about people who get to vote for people who will vote for them and are only in power to be the proxies of their benefactors. The courts and legislatures don’t care about us.

[NYDem]

I am one of the 4 who voted no over 70%. It's a bit out there, but I think measures like this are a very hard sell. Why would people vote for an initiative to reduce the power of voting for initiatives? Add in the fact that the yes campaign is weaker and that Democrats should have a turnout edge in an abortion-adjacent off-year referendum and I don't think it's such a crazy prediction.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

My guess is no 62-38, but I could be very wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The average of our poll (assigning the midpoint of each range, i.e. votes in an "over 50%" group are counted as 55% for that side) currently shows No winning with 57.3%.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The average of our poll (assigning the midpoint of each range, i.e. votes in an "over 50%" group are counted as 55% for that side) currently shows No winning with 57.3%.

No usually outperforms polling in these ballot measures and thus is my default assumption, even though it's not impossible that this time is different.

[kwabbit]

My inclination is to say 54-46 No, but the Dems have overperformed in so many straight elections that it'll probably be a larger margin.

[Roll Roons]

58-42 in favor of No.