Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[Vice President Christian Man]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and a large chunk of "no") voters were motivated by their stance on abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2012 presidential election map but with lopsided margins. On the flip side this reminds me of the WI Supreme Court special election in which the GOP did well in the rurals but got absolutely creamed in the suburbs+urban area and did horrid overall. Dems have warned this would become more likely with the way the current GOP is but unfortunately the people that should care about it don't.

[Oryxslayer]

Astabula actually flips back into the 'No" column right at the buzzer, defying the trend of counties getting more GOP-favoring with each vote drop.

Turns out the 'No" camp's strongest warriors were across the Cleveland Media Market, with the awkward exception of Cleveland itself and it's depressingly low low-income urban minority turnout.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ashtabula County - 85% in

"NO" - 50.66%

"YES" - 49.34%

ASHTABULA COMIN BACK FROM THE DEAD

[WalterWhite]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and probably most "no") voters were motivated by/only thinking about abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2008 presidential election map but with lopsided margins.

I honestly thought the county map would resemble something along the lines of the 2006 OH Senate Race to be honest.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and probably most "no") voters were motivated by/only thinking about abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2008 presidential election map but with lopsided margins.

I noted yesterday that there were prominent conservative commutators outside of the formal political system who were pushing hard for 'No,' specifically cause they didn't want to effectively eliminate a limited government handbrake.

[Fancyarcher]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and probably most "no") voters were motivated by/only thinking about abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2008 presidential election map but with lopsided margins.

I honestly thought the county map would resemble something along the lines of the 2006 OH Senate Race to be honest.

Not a chance that was happening. Brown won in some rural turf that no Democrat has won after, Brown included.

[WalterWhite]

Portage, Mahoning, and Lake Counties are all still to the left of the state. Trumbull is only about a point to the right of the state. Some interesting electoral trends are happening in Northeast Ohio.

Dave Wassermann commented: "The final Ohio Issue 1 map could end up looking a lot like the '18 Senate race map, where Sherrod Brown's strength/religious conservatives' weakness with blue-collar voters in eastern Ohio proved decisive."

I was thinking this could be good news for Biden and Brown in 2024 in those specific counties. These results show that these counties are as pro-choice or more pro-choice than the state as a whole. If abortion is a big issue in 2024, who knows what might happen in those counties?

[7,052,770]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm guessing that most "Yes" (and probably most "no") voters were motivated by/only thinking about abortion when voting but this bill would've gone further. Had "yes" won, it would've meant the adaptation of Florida's horrid system which would've been a thorn in the side of democracy. Interestingly though the county map so far reminds me a bit of the 2008 presidential election map but with lopsided margins.

I noted yesterday that there were prominent conservative commutators outside of the formal political system who were pushing hard for 'No,' specifically cause they didn't want to effectively eliminate a limited government handbrake.

It's interesting that Yes only has about half of Trump's margin in many rural counties.

[WalterWhite]

Only 39% of the vote from Cuyahoga is in. Could this mean that the "NO" margin will expand by the end of the vote tallying process?

[BigZuck08]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

That's going to be tough, considering that abortion is probably not the only issue for a pro-choice Republican...

[Fancyarcher]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

[Oryxslayer]

Montgomery (Dayton) is the first big county to finish counting: 61-39 No. large swing from the 50-47 Biden numbers in 2020, and the generally 50-50 tied results in most elections.

[BigZuck08]

NO raw vote lead had been holding pretty steady at between 250-275K. ED vote looks to be splitting roughly 50/50.

Note that the ED vote we've gotten is mostly from redder areas of the state; would expect some of the remainder should be a touch more favorable to No.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689083154403901440

What site did you find that data?

[TML]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

That's right. Remember that voters in Kentucky voted down an anti-abortion ballot measure in 2022 on the same day they reelected their incumbent (anti-abortion) Republican Senator Rand Paul.

[BigZuck08]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

True, but in this day and age, I can't imagine it being very successful. The only way you would get these voters to vote on the D side is on ballot questions like OH Issue 1.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

That's right. Remember that voters in Kentucky voted down an anti-abortion ballot measure in 2022 on the same day they reelected their incumbent (anti-abortion) Republican Senator Rand Paul.

I also think you have a lot of folks who are sort of in the middle on abortion (i.e support a decent amount of restrictions but still need exceptions), but have been scared by the slew of extreme Republican laws post-Dobbs. They think on the national level, that type of ban just will never happen or they have other higher priority reasons for voting R.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Only 39% of the vote from Cuyahoga is in. Could this mean that the "NO" margin will expand by the end of the vote tallying process?

Honestly, between Cuyahoga, Summit, Franklin, Lucas, and Hamilton counties, I wouldn't rule it out. Still, the election day vote in some of those will be more favorable to Yes, probably Hamilton in particular. And there are still a lot of conservative suburbs of Cincinnati to come in.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

NO raw vote lead had been holding pretty steady at between 250-275K. ED vote looks to be splitting roughly 50/50.

Note that the ED vote we've gotten is mostly from redder areas of the state; would expect some of the remainder should be a touch more favorable to No.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689083154403901440

What site did you find that data?

I'm just quoting the twitter post, I didn't do the analysis myself.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This is a good night for people who support democracy.

[Fancyarcher]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

True, but in this day and age, I can't imagine it being very successful. The only way you would get these voters to vote on the D side is on ballot questions like OH Issue 1.

I will say it at least works well as a rallying call.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Those Lorain and Portage County numbers are beautiful.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Ashtabula 52-48 No now.

[BigZuck08]

NO raw vote lead had been holding pretty steady at between 250-275K. ED vote looks to be splitting roughly 50/50.

Note that the ED vote we've gotten is mostly from redder areas of the state; would expect some of the remainder should be a touch more favorable to No.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689083154403901440

What site did you find that data?

I'm just quoting the twitter post, I didn't do the analysis myself.

Oh ok.

[BigZuck08]

This is a good night for people who support democracy.

Agreed.